their Eagle Ford/Catarina site... so commodities are down but costs as well, you can bet PXD is getting their costs shaved 50% or more if Sanchez can get their EF drilling cost down 33%.. that means less deduction for royalty trust growing pain expenses as well .. Bea..
•Targeted well costs at Catarina in 2015 are approximately $5 million per well (down from approximately $7.5 million per well), driven by service sector price reductions and increased efficiencies
Frozen song comes to mind . let it flow, let it flow... lol... of course PXD just raised a billion in stock sale before the big crash but that doesn't help NDRO.. to try to be positive.. who can be positive in this energy market! ..maybe CAPEX is also frozen now and we will see some dist relief near term.. there are going to be a lot less well tie ins in US/CA with this weather, helping cut in production and if we start to see less builds in US supply reports o/ng can stabilize somewhat and let everyone catch their breath. but it is hopeless to fight the Saudi's and UAE, et al.. unless you are mad Oligarchs or Iranians... royalty trusts seem to have stabilized somewhat compared to other o/ng.
down down down every day.. googl it if you want to read about the downgrade or it is on ca boards.. banks have 1st dibs on any asset sale cash as well. sad. Bea
I like PGZ, Principal's collateralized mortgage backed securities (CMBS) fund that includes a smattering of REITS and some beaten down Canadian REITS as well for growth potential. it does use leverage as do most of the higher yielding funds but a small amount works for me now. these PIMCO funds are still being sold massively by hedge funds and investors w Bill Gross gone, amazing. imo, Allianz never did anything right for years, just again my opinion having been in insurance before I retired.
due your research, be aware in a market sell off these leveraged funds could/will get clobbered.. so keep some dry powder to take advantage of issues in your watch list that fall. I may also add small amt of FOF again if it hits $12 which it may since it has a lot of energy/high yield in it.. pays .26q.. volatility and fear are great for buying CEF's. BWG is one of the better managed foreign bond funds/legg mason brandywine run it..but there will be better entry points there as well, they seem to do a good job hedging and picking thru the bad foreign risks..so far.. NDP could be an interesting spec buy on energy but again it will get cheaper so not yet imo... a 10% pullback in mkt could give you 15-20% better pricing on CEF's especially leveraged ones. beginning of year is a good time to buy CEF's imo after the year end noise is x'd out.. Bea
there is probably a 20-30% selloff coming in the mlp's where people are hiding out these days as all energy even the toll takers get thrown out soon. monitoring in my watch list for buys in the volatility for my long term holding, I like NDP more, Tortoise has been in the MLP/Energy space longer than most. KMI, ENB, Williams, all could be crushed soon. selling tsunami. when the sentiment goes negative on these MLPs as it seems to be going, you will get a good entry point.
agree, they need to eliminate the dividend, concentrate on paying down as much debt as possible, cut capex to bare min for maintenance, tie ins, etc., buy back US high yield debt w cash flow and ride this out. also I bet they could get a decent albeit discounted for current conditions sale price for the Horn River BC NG asset which they will never be able to develop,,maybe PETRONAS or Korean Oil could buy for a cupple hundred mil... elim div will cause a little selling but the dividend model for CA E&P is a broken model = now proven after 2006 CA tax change, 2008-09 mess, and 2014-15 Saudi attack on US/CA oil and gas interests w discounted oil sales. continued debt paydown means it is more and more attractive to a buyer.. the 866mUS w 8%plus US$ payments required is too high cost and NO acquirer is ever going to buy this company w all this US debt and interest payable in ultra strong US$ and CA oil lucky to be getting $30 for the next 6mo. I will hold my small position for now, again glad I sold 1/2 back in summer before the fall.. elim the div and capex cut and sell something like Horn River NG, they stay on track to be viable and I would add some then. spec hold for me.. glta in 2015. Bea
it is important to understand this. postings on this board are ambiguous on the subject. pays .158mo levered, about an 11% disc to NAV trading at 22.50 today.. at 8/31/24 it will close down.. 1st they have to pay back the borrowings which are used to increase the yield.. then what is LEFT OVER the shareholders get. board can extend this term for 12mo if it deems necessary. I have seen some of these term funds merge prior to redemption.. it is not really in the interest of the mgr, Nuveen/TIAA-CREFF owner, to have less funds under management and fees so who knows. so about 10.7yrs left "maybe" -to me, ok to collect the yield or trade in and out, but this adds a whole lot of uncertainty and probably why the disc to NAV is so high. ........................... here is what the Prospectus says, available by googlg.. .............................
Defined Term. The Fund has a defined term of 12 years. On or before August 31, 2024, the Fund intends
to cease its investment operations, liquidate its portfolio, retire or redeem leverage facilities and distribute
substantially all of its net assets to shareholders of record as of the date of termination. The Fund’s defined
term may be extended for one period of up to 12 months by a vote of the Board of Trustees, if the Fund’s
Board of Trustees determines it is in the best interest of the shareholders to do so. The Fund’s investment
objective and policies are NOT DESIGNED to return to investors who purchase common shares in this
offering their initial investment (issued at $25/ Bea.) on the termination date, and such initial investors and any investors
that purchase common shares after the completion of this offering may receive more or less than their
original investment upon termination--- AGAIN just fyi! I am not long now but it is interesting in the closed end fund high yield space sell off for 1-2yr hold w tight stop imo.., mostly banks/ins co's debt etc. aBea
they were smart to grow with equity and not debt like others.. at the time the blips and drops w equity issuance were bemoaned by shareholders as capping the potential for gain but now they are not saddled w billions in debt like BTE which bot it's Eagle Ford acres near the market top for debt. still there will probably be better entry points in the coming months than $24 as it may have to test the 18-19US low to stabilize/climb again. if they cut the dist, it could see $15...BTE seems to have stabilized a little.. CPG is a long term operator/ savvy company w good management imo to weather the storm, come out even stronger or be taken over or a hedgie target. I think that while the Chinese and Malaysian and Koreans have not been as happy about their CA purchases in recent years, they may turn back to CA to buy properties in a safe country w massive buildout in infrastructure to get the o/ng out. When you look at the problems in African oil and Deep Sea, Brazil all over the place, VZ nightmare, instability in rest of South Am., CA is starting to look interesting (same for gold/copper..) and don't forget, if you are say China holding or PETRONAS/Malaysia or Korean Oil Co.. US$ the Loonie is down 15% to .85/1.00US now, so you get more bang for your USbuck.. interesting times for sure. thank you for questforgrowth on the hedges, I understand that better now, an interesting and increasingly important point.
I agree, potential overhang of a share issuance. they should just do a PFD or 10yr, bet they could get 10yr for under 5%, but probably they will sell shares again.. here is what the release says re this buy and ofc bldg.'s buy...//On a longer term basis, SNH expects to finance both these acquisitions with an appropriate mix of equity and debt capital, depending on the cost of such financings and future market conditions. /// I would put a limit to buy order in to add to a position at say $21 good for 30days, grab some shares when they wrap up how they are paying for it. Bea
they have been tucking in more and more real estate agents while CA housing market may weaken a little on price and internal market fundies, the weak loonie will help continue to attract foreign buyers to main markets and major cities where supply is limited. would be a great tuck in for Zillow or IACI or some other svc provider looking for a large entry into CA, great on it's own though. long
The Company is a leading provider of services to residential real estate brokers and their REALTORS®1. The Company generates cash flow from franchise royalties and service fees derived from a national network of real estate brokers and agents in Canada operating under the Royal LePage, Via Capitale Real Estate Network and Johnston & Daniel brand names. At September 30, 2014, the Company network consisted of 15,593 REALTORS®. The Company network has approximately one fifth share of the Canadian residential resale real estate market based on 2013 transactional dollar volume. The Company generates both fixed and variable fee components. Variable fees are primarily driven by the total transactional dollar volume from the sales commissions of REALTORS®, while fixed fees are based on the number of agents and sales representatives in the network. Approximately 71 per cent of the Company's revenue is based on fees that are fixed in nature; this provides revenue stability and helps insulate the Company's cash flows from market fluctuations. The Company is listed on the TSX and trades under the symbol "BRE".
similarly managed bond mutual fund is pretty highly regarded, same managers.. looked over current fund holdings, nothing too scary-just maybe the small portion of energy bonds in there, didn't see any RU, Ukraine etc. they seem to understand forex hedging pretty well too.
company sticks to it's knitting in the apartment space w interest rates staying low probably for years, yield and share price very attractive here imo. at some point, they will probably be taken over by a bigger player for 12-13$sh if it stays in this range, would probably be accretive to any big player in the apt space.
hard to own w all the uncertainty in foreign markets, forex etc. I know they use currency hedges etc. but you can only hedge away some risks.. VZ, Ukraine, RU, Australia, Nigeria, other risks apparent or not so apparent yet.. not adding for sure.
if you apply 80,000$ flowing BOE that Eagle paid for 1/2 of Spyglass' northern alberta low decline field to our low decline assets, subtract say 100m on line of credit, buy the debs on the open market in a tender for 50c on the $ or about 75m, on even 5500-6000 boe, you get a realized price of at least $3/shUS or so in a sale for AET.UN... interesting they would rather produce (with Devon) in the WY play on the reduced capex in 2015 than do TX development in E. TX etc. lucky to get $40/b now for that oil and it is still profitable.. I still am not sure Devon our partner will do much in WY in 2015 as they have not announced their 2015 plans in detail yet. I am hoping, which they alluded to in stmt, for more cost savings in admin/production expenses and layoffs, outsourcing of needs like accounting etc. so we will see. I do not think the pain is over in the oil patch it is a sick cat bounce, Putin told Russians to be prepared for pain and $40 oil, in line w Saudi's.. I read the news releases in detail on oilprice dotcom website and in addition to capex cuts, I am seeing PRODUCTION shut in announcements already.. I am glad we are not giving our oil away at these prices.. Twin Butte for example is shutting in 1,000boe day in one field which is not profitable at this time.. in no time the world supply will be in balance and price will bounce back.. energy pigs and winter needs will suk up all this excess supply in no time. Germany, Japan, China, India, grabbing all the oil they can now, tankers can't keep up.. I am looking for lows in oil stocks in 2/2015.. I am glad to see AET doing it's projections on a conservative $67WTI, most are using 70-80 still. holding for now.
we'll see today what the distribution is if any.. wong could just be doing some tax selling to take advantage of the loss, not a big sale, I don't know why he continues to average in bi monthly buys and then has sold..again, maybe he needed the money for something, a VP of finance is not a wealthy man usually.. was more impressed w Elzner's 50,000 buy at .72US after they credit was approved by bank..it is a penny stock now run by day traders. I am not sure the pain is done in energy, probably a sick cat bounce going on today in most names w the Talisman takeover by Respol for $8, double the market price at the time. I see Eagle bot Spyglass (old PACE/PVX) asset in a joint venture.. so stuff is trading, EGL.UN paid 80,000/boe for the deal, a decent price for northern Alberta low decline field,,, our stuff is US low decline fields, if we could get $80,000/boe pricing on sales, the line of credit gets paid off/down fast, net asset value realized etc. it is amazing how of course this train wreck is now a 50cent stock but it has a lot of company like PWE, PGH, LSTMF, LRE.TO, TBTEF, etc.. all in the hands of day traders now.. I am waiting to see Devon's plans for WY in 2015, if they pull back and thus our capex gets reduced.. WY is not a focus area for DVN.
maybe 4% total and most names are not the scary energy names. short maturity focus so about a 5% yield and shorter duration for interest rate protection. interesting hold.
well I always said since I was an NXG investor that Kemess was the asset..that old mill from KSouth is good to have in place, you are correct.. what this could do is get a major player interested in buying auq out. since announcement when the stock was 3.5 it is down now to $3US again.. probably worth a spec nibble small buy soon. they really squandered assets when they bot back shares and paid dividends before.
I feel like it is Northgate all over again. the best resource is Kemess North which they can't develop since they can't get permits.. so they are digging their way up thru it. "kemess east" "Kemess Underground" how about Kemess Cloud lol....hopefully if they develop they hedge copper which is the main resource in the area.. seems like an expensive development is coming here..avoid
Sentiment: Strong Sell
hey still haven't raised financing to pay for the medical ofc bldgs. they announced $500m.. again I hope they sell pfd's but w shares up near $23 would not be surprised to see them drop 20m shares on the market.. would be a short term good entry point if so imo. that's what reits do of course. I see some 10yr debt being done at 4.5-4.75% on commercial properties, that is very low.. hopefully anything done is accretive to AFFO..