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Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. Message Board

beabaggage 86 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 28, 2014 6:53 PM Member since: Nov 13, 2008
  • Reply to

    Was rather hoping that we bottomed yesterday

    by jsb1949 Jul 11, 2014 11:48 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 14, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    $7US holding so far,imo the whitting/Kodiak merger tells me that these players have to now start to look to economies of scale to achieve better profitability,,adding a cleaned up lightstream to another producer means better negotiating power w rr's, for railcar fees, pipelines, when buying trucks, negotiating drilling rights etc. saw one analysis today on CA stock site that applying the $149kboe metric WLL is paying for KOG to LTS makes us at least $20 undervalued. I think a tired producer like PGH,PWE or reinvigorated ERF could merge this out for $10sh. not entirely out of the question for a us producer or--say CPG to buy, CPG is done digesting their recent CA acq. Scotia Bank increased it's tp to 8.75 from 7$CA, 25%, they like our restructure, debt paydowns. weak o/ng now not helping overall, but giving us a good long term buying opp imo. once again-- CA oil/ng is so cheap compared to what other world oil/ng assets are going for. who want to produce in Angola or Libya when you can do CA cheaper and much safer w real laws and AAA banking system in place . Statoil needs to buy something big soon. Chinese buyers have been burned by oil sands buys, but they are long term holders. who knows they may try to nibble at a conventional oil play buy.. I don't think CA would stop a buy or two by foreigners, domestic expansion is getting no where w first nations and enviro's... you don't hear anything about Korean Oil co which bought out Harvest Oil CA a few years back and added a good east coast atlantic refinery for a song along w HTE's oil/ng assets. Korean and Japanese may be the next players in CA hungry for capex in existing assets. nuclear still dead in Japan, they are sucking up huge oil for sure, along w India which is rebounding.. I am reviewing my CA hotlist now, LSTMF starting to look decent again to nibble, may be a little early.. was thinking $7 to add but now may put in a limit order to buy at $6.50... glta, sorry to ramble.. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • coming online in Aug 14, since we are getting 10-20$ less than WTI for WY oil, improvements in the infrastructure in these areas not only may improve our netbacks on 2k-3kday but adds to the value of legacy fields and improvements in flowbacks from existing wells being flushed out. a minor positive again, all these little pluses adding up imo. still a good spec hold imo w 8 percent yield

  • Reply to

    Was rather hoping that we bottomed yesterday

    by jsb1949 Jul 11, 2014 11:48 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 11, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    oil/ng way down, summer doldrums, cooler weather in ne coming etc. lstmf at 7 is a 6% yield again.. I am sure the 2nd q will be good and maybe some news will drib out soon. I think Canadian ng producers will be better off than US ones as tx/ok can't compete w Marcellus/Utica. more markets for ng in west US from CA. oh well. Bea

  • from July present. on co website-- no real changes but no unpleasant surprises, some good news---2 Haydens wells in Gonzalez County – Successfully drilled and completed and are in the early stages of flowback, still guiding for 6100-6200boe 2nd-3rdq 2014, and capex pretty much done for 2014. mgmt. still buying shares in May, June..

  • no real changes or news from june,stock closed at 3.14CA today on tsx, up into close-- prod guid still at about 6200boe for 2nd-3rdq, some good news, major capex for 2014 done and 2 wells completed in Gonzales Co TX and flowing back! no rate shown. but enuf to maintain guid etc for 2014-2015 at least according to presentation. from presentation...2 Haydens wells in Gonzalez County – Successfully drilled and completed and are in the early stages of flowback. still a spec value hold imo, decent yield for sure

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    added some today

    by jsb1949 Jul 8, 2014 11:28 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 8, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    I think it could test $7US soon.. just on technicals- flush out the few remaining long term holders who want to sell.. some others who got in at $5-6 might panic and lock in profits... most analysts still bullish on stock in CA, funds bullish on energy, energy in general and LSTMF underowned by funds, they could be buyers as well. I would add at $7 for the 6% yield and undervalued assets. Sold some at 8.25, I was way up on a 12/2013 purchase and the stock seemed ahead of itself technically. Oil/NG also had big run up, summer selloff now, should stabilize soon. If they keep cleaning co. debt/non-core assets up, it seems a juicy takeover spec as well. long term buy for sure. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

MAA
66.04-0.31(-0.47%)Sep 29 4:05 PMEDT

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