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Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. Message Board

beabaggage 70 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2014 2:47 PM Member since: Nov 13, 2008
  • interesting issue to develop Poland fracking NG wells on 700k acres owned.. not callable until 7-2017, conv when common is at $5.. high yield energy issue, of course it is drilling in a foreign land which is always s/t/politics etc. but play on Europe diversifying from Russian NG.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sheesh, we beat and raise guidance and get squat

    by jsb1949 Jul 24, 2014 10:29 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 24, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    glad I added yesterday, they squeezed the shorts who have been taking it down on no bad news. probably still range bound but these teasers w big increase in eagle ford production from new wells, tweaking older assets for sale, got over 100kboe and 10mil for 95boe KS sale. they only paid 48m for that asset last year, production in those fields has been increasing due to polymer injections, low decline wells... debt to be under 90mil in Aug, probably pay down more, bank is on board, LOC still $160mil.. I expect they develop other legacy assets and evaluate for small sales. we could have LOC paid off by 1st q 2015, big cash flow this year..seems like the turnaround is in place. up to $3CA at 230pm on over 900k shares in Canadian trading..over 5x daily volume. nice to see a bounce for a change. I am long for "long term" hold for yield and value here. 20,000 EagleFord acres w PVA and others producing near by is one heck of an asset . Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I know the market is tough and irrational, but

    by jsb1949 Jul 23, 2014 10:33 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 23, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    the slight fade into 2nd q report probably mid Aug is a little concerning but probably just due to lack of news. most firms do not release any news other than quarterlies and conf calls. 9% yield is sweet, adding a little here. no real insider sales, only buys, mostly small but they are not billionaires so they are putting skin in the game too.. no real large blocks in July to indicate any institutional selling from big holders Franklin Funds CA or Aston Hills funds... I would like to see more value funds or high yield/energy funds buying but they probably want to see more of the "new plan" execution play out. high WTI should mean great cash flow as 2nd-3rd q are probably peak production w capex done for 2014.. if they can squeeze 10-50boe day from some old wells in the legacy fields in OK/WY/KS, that would be encouraging; you have Tallgrass LP building out Pony Xpress Pipeline etc in these states which could help WTI differentials.. oh well, glta, buying a little her at 2.48 Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • beabaggage beabaggage Jul 18, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    seems to be holding this level despite the additional volume, mkt up and underlying common up as well w high yield holding up. neutral price action is fine w the high yield!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Any bulls out there?

    by djp5625 Jun 24, 2014 4:07 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 17, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    with interest rates staying low, spreads still very narrow, it would be a nice tuck in acq for PNC, close/consolidate/ they could probably get it for $11.50 easy, would probably be accretive to PNC, the 900lb gorilla in the regional banking market, esp in PA. I think it could test $8 near term where I would buy.

  • they still hold the shares from the other fund which was a total return div fund, things like xom, goog, hpq etc. I am hoping they clean this up and use cash for firepower to pick up some reits that decline when shares are offered like IRT recently.. we'll see. still a big disc to nav 13.90 today w price at 12.50 dist .24q starting w sept fees should be lower, low for a cef at 0.90 projected fee. no leverage.

  • Reply to

    big insider buys last week

    by beabaggage Jul 15, 2014 12:31 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 17, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    reviewed july presentation in co website seems like a great buy here. good hedges, no real ng, heavy oil differential is relatively low compared to last july when it was same price. dist declared as usual.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    LSTMF Buyout

    by floridaguy4fun876 Jul 17, 2014 9:53 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 17, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    how about PETRONAS, it's been 18mo since they bot Progress.. CA is ripe for allowing another takeover. "oh, ok, just one more...." how many times has that happened. then maybe CPG would come in.

  • Reply to

    Lightstream vs Kodiak

    by bttmlinr Jul 16, 2014 5:34 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 16, 2014 6:59 PM Flag

    RBC reviewed 2nd q update and reiterated 8.75TP. WTI bounced up hard from long term uptrend line of 99.63 yesterday and closed up today. lts so oversold it was due.. would have like to have seen more large block buys into the 3rd q by pension funds, mutual funds etc. pretty much normal Canadian volume today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • including John Brussa, the father of the Canroy concept back in the day..he bot 333k shares at 1.80canadian. price starting to be very interesting again plus div of .015mo CA over a 10% yield.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Was rather hoping that we bottomed yesterday

    by jsb1949 Jul 11, 2014 11:48 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 15, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    here comes 6.50,, revised my limit order to buy at 6.50 to try to catch some at 6.25 for long term holdings not a trade, probably not today but maybe this week if oil/ng keep heading down.. about a 7% yielder again.. glad I sold a little on the way up to recent highs, will use that firepower for my limit.... but still a core holding as long as they keep executing plans.. if CPG or someone came in at $10 offer today or this week, it would be a huge premium but still so cheap for them.. they could offer .25sh of CPG stock, refi the LTS high yield debt at very low costs, keep cleaning up non -core, gain 40kboe production, infrastructure. wow seems no brainer to me! glta. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Was rather hoping that we bottomed yesterday

    by jsb1949 Jul 11, 2014 11:48 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 14, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    $7US holding so far,imo the whitting/Kodiak merger tells me that these players have to now start to look to economies of scale to achieve better profitability,,adding a cleaned up lightstream to another producer means better negotiating power w rr's, for railcar fees, pipelines, when buying trucks, negotiating drilling rights etc. saw one analysis today on CA stock site that applying the $149kboe metric WLL is paying for KOG to LTS makes us at least $20 undervalued. I think a tired producer like PGH,PWE or reinvigorated ERF could merge this out for $10sh. not entirely out of the question for a us producer or--say CPG to buy, CPG is done digesting their recent CA acq. Scotia Bank increased it's tp to 8.75 from 7$CA, 25%, they like our restructure, debt paydowns. weak o/ng now not helping overall, but giving us a good long term buying opp imo. once again-- CA oil/ng is so cheap compared to what other world oil/ng assets are going for. who want to produce in Angola or Libya when you can do CA cheaper and much safer w real laws and AAA banking system in place . Statoil needs to buy something big soon. Chinese buyers have been burned by oil sands buys, but they are long term holders. who knows they may try to nibble at a conventional oil play buy.. I don't think CA would stop a buy or two by foreigners, domestic expansion is getting no where w first nations and enviro's... you don't hear anything about Korean Oil co which bought out Harvest Oil CA a few years back and added a good east coast atlantic refinery for a song along w HTE's oil/ng assets. Korean and Japanese may be the next players in CA hungry for capex in existing assets. nuclear still dead in Japan, they are sucking up huge oil for sure, along w India which is rebounding.. I am reviewing my CA hotlist now, LSTMF starting to look decent again to nibble, may be a little early.. was thinking $7 to add but now may put in a limit order to buy at $6.50... glta, sorry to ramble.. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • coming online in Aug 14, since we are getting 10-20$ less than WTI for WY oil, improvements in the infrastructure in these areas not only may improve our netbacks on 2k-3kday but adds to the value of legacy fields and improvements in flowbacks from existing wells being flushed out. a minor positive again, all these little pluses adding up imo. still a good spec hold imo w 8 percent yield

  • Reply to

    Was rather hoping that we bottomed yesterday

    by jsb1949 Jul 11, 2014 11:48 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 11, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    oil/ng way down, summer doldrums, cooler weather in ne coming etc. lstmf at 7 is a 6% yield again.. I am sure the 2nd q will be good and maybe some news will drib out soon. I think Canadian ng producers will be better off than US ones as tx/ok can't compete w Marcellus/Utica. more markets for ng in west US from CA. oh well. Bea

  • from July present. on co website-- no real changes but no unpleasant surprises, some good news---2 Haydens wells in Gonzalez County – Successfully drilled and completed and are in the early stages of flowback, still guiding for 6100-6200boe 2nd-3rdq 2014, and capex pretty much done for 2014. mgmt. still buying shares in May, June..

  • no real changes or news from june,stock closed at 3.14CA today on tsx, up into close-- prod guid still at about 6200boe for 2nd-3rdq, some good news, major capex for 2014 done and 2 wells completed in Gonzales Co TX and flowing back! no rate shown. but enuf to maintain guid etc for 2014-2015 at least according to presentation. from presentation...2 Haydens wells in Gonzalez County – Successfully drilled and completed and are in the early stages of flowback. still a spec value hold imo, decent yield for sure

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    added some today

    by jsb1949 Jul 8, 2014 11:28 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Jul 8, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    I think it could test $7US soon.. just on technicals- flush out the few remaining long term holders who want to sell.. some others who got in at $5-6 might panic and lock in profits... most analysts still bullish on stock in CA, funds bullish on energy, energy in general and LSTMF underowned by funds, they could be buyers as well. I would add at $7 for the 6% yield and undervalued assets. Sold some at 8.25, I was way up on a 12/2013 purchase and the stock seemed ahead of itself technically. Oil/NG also had big run up, summer selloff now, should stabilize soon. If they keep cleaning co. debt/non-core assets up, it seems a juicy takeover spec as well. long term buy for sure. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • soros pushing PVA sale, argent's ef acres right next to pva's could be positive since buyout or takeover of argent for ef as tuck in acquisition to a PVA acquirer would be cheap now for sure. a lot of minor positives adding up here slow and steady climb from decimating lows w 8% yield while things sort out.

  • beabaggage beabaggage Jun 24, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    ALL TX OIL/NG/NGL big revaluation w admin decision announced tonight, makes the Eagleford acres even more valuable, possible narrowing of WTI/Brent spread. a big plus for argent for sure. from mktwtch.

    Federal officials told two energy companies that they can legally export a kind of ultra-light oil that has become plentiful as drillers tap shale formations across the U.S. With relatively minimal processing, oil shipments could begin as early as August, according to one industry executive involved in the matter.

    Using a process known as a private ruling, the U.S. Commerce Dept.’s Bureau of Industry and Security is allowing Pioneer Natural Resources Co. of Irving, Texas, and Enterprise Products Partners LP of Houston to export ultra-light oil known as condensate to foreign buyers who could turn it into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

    Both companies confirmed they had received the rulings.

    Under current rules, companies can export refined fuel, such as gasoline and diesel, but not oil itself. The Administration’s new approach, which hasn’t been publicly announced, redefines some ultra-light oil as fuel after it has been minimally processed, making it eligible for sale abroad

    Sentiment: Buy

  • another positive for NDRO, maybe more drilling expense short term but the value of all oil in north american just got a big bump!! from mktwatch... Bea

    Federal officials have told two energy companies that they can legally export a kind of ultra-light oil that has become plentiful as drillers tap shale formations across the U.S. With relatively minimal processing, oil shipments could begin as early as August, according to one industry executive involved in the matter.

    Using a process known as a private ruling, the U.S. Commerce Dept.’s Bureau of Industry and Security is allowing Pioneer Natural Resources Co. of Irving, Texas, and Enterprise Products Partners LP of Houston to export ultra-light oil known as condensate to foreign buyers who could turn it into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

    Both companies confirmed they had received the rulings.

    Under current rules, companies can export refined fuel, such as gasoline and diesel, but not oil itself. The Administration’s new approach, which hasn’t been publicly announced, redefines some ultra-light oil as fuel after it has been minimally processed, making it eligible for sale abroad

    Sentiment: Buy

MAA
74.63+0.43(+0.58%)Jul 28 4:02 PMEDT