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Cross Timbers Royalty Trust Message Board

beabaggage 42 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 13, 2016 11:38 AM Member since: Nov 13, 2008
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  • will be interesting to see if dist holds for the May declaration, Tortoise has managed leverage well thru this mlp turmoil,, watching to add to current underweight position in IRA. most holdings have held or increased their dist this year, SE, EQM and others. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • beabaggage beabaggage Apr 8, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    sold today at 15.54, last quarter ending 2/29, they did not earn the dist, .31, paying out .33/ still minor positive UNII, they have cut leverage, it has run from 14ish and disc to nav is down to just 6%, just taking some risk off the table here..i see some insiders have bot isd and ghy, other pru cef fund, but again, I am just cutting some risk here,, I have about a 15% gain w dist in ira.. glta. Bea

  • Reply to

    Own It

    by chris.ganster Mar 4, 2016 1:33 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Apr 6, 2016 2:11 PM Flag

    agree, it has moved up nicely w other world bond funds this year- and disc to nav has narrowed- but hollow buy back announcements upset me as well. disc is still over 14%, an instant 14% return- it cuts the assets under mgmt. so there is no incentive to follow thru for some mgr's. not too happy w lm these days overall. at least we are earning the .11mo dist w no ROC. holding for now, it is a great yield.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • thanxx. better op's out there, look at PGZ, PCI which have lagged other cef's. Bea

    Sentiment: Sell

  • beabaggage beabaggage Mar 31, 2016 1:18 PM Flag

    thanx, agree, but decided to sell today at 11.09. still some value in smaller reits for infl hedge/ not a day trader either but finding other op's at this time. take care. Bea

  • beabaggage beabaggage Mar 30, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    hi Lib, we've had quite a run, I think a combo of wage pressure and stealth rent/healthcare inflation (TIPs up quite a bit too, TIP spreads have come in a lot ) and the share buyback (seems like volume has been higher)- the disc to nav has narrowed to avg historically but still a decent disc. anyhooo, I am thinking it is time to get out, reinv in another fund now.. I know you feel mid 11's, not as much bang left considering dist is all ROC now. are you holding, wondering your thots.. thanx, Bea

  • Reply to

    Downgrade

    by kjames2724 Mar 18, 2016 12:19 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Mar 21, 2016 11:26 AM Flag

    well we still get almost a penny this month, even w low realized oil/ng prices and a slight decline in oil production (NG production was artificially inflated last mo by an adj.) - we are not in a deficit with any producers on production costs vs realized prices and the reserve for expenses is up to 850k in case of continued low prices in o/ng..

    so again, while the next several months will be volatile, low to possible nil distributions- it doesn't seem as dire as a long term bet on the Permian potential of underlying royalty assets. realized oil prices if at $40 and ng at 1.90-2.00 we could see .02-.04mo. holding my modest position. glta Bea

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Downgrade

    by kjames2724 Mar 18, 2016 12:19 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Mar 18, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    here is what I was able to find

    .Stifel analyst Brian Brungardt, Jr. downgraded Enduro Royalty to Sell from Hold as he views it as "significantly overvalued" in the current commodity price environment. The analyst believes Enduro Royalty will suspend its distribution given the lag in production and that it will underperform peers after such a suspension. Brungardt has a $2 price target on the shares.

    basically several probable/possible months of little to no distributions (because of low prices now) ..but the value here is in long term perpetual interest in royalty earnings on the Permian Basin, not for yield now..

    people who own this including me have been saying distributions would evaporate temporarily as they are paid out a few mos after produced and prices have plunged. NDRO has reserved up to 1mil to cover expenses during this time, there will be very low capex this year.. so it may not dig a hole in expenses owed to producers like others have.

    recovery in o/ng holds up for a while, you could see .02-.03 mo again in a few mos.. all royalty trusts are feeling this now..

    again- for a long term holder, a way to play the major focus of all producers on the Permian Basin now where substantial royalty interests are held, the massive needs of Mexico for NG/NGL should be a benefit, decreasing costs and build out of infrastructure in the area make the royalty interest valuable imo.. I hold a very small position. glta. Bea

    Sentiment: Hold

  • yield here, w deleveraging, increasing rents on apt's , lower for longer interest cost outlook, high demand for apt's from investors, monthly div protected by FFO/cash flow, a great time to add more. Long. Bea

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New SA Article

    by funruner_2006 Mar 14, 2016 1:41 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Mar 15, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    I think Leon Cooperman (Omega Adv.) is on CNBC today, it will be interesting to see if he mentions NRZ or SNR where he was long both co's as of 12/31/15. He has mentioned in the past due to disc to nav and div's. Bea

  • from .0805mo.. to better match expected income w dist.. off my watch list, better op's out there now in PIMCO funds PIMCO doing a great job of earning/keeping distributions up, imo.. Bea

    Sentiment: Sell

  • beabaggage beabaggage Mar 10, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    seems like a long haul bet imo- dist will be very low to nil near term, even w recovery in o/ng pricing, stay low for quite a while, especially if capex would pick up again-

    so I think it is the large atrractive Permian royalty base, all these o/ng companies saying Permian is focus and this fund is a low cost option-like perpetual trust way to participate in the future of the region (SE N.Mex, NW Tex.) -

    low capex this year which may help keep distributable cash from getting into the negative (along w $1m slush fund established for a reserve)--
    of course distributions are going stay low to nil and possibly slightly negative next few mos w o/ng/ngl prices so low now. costs are coming down so netbacks could improve, exports to MX of ng/ngl w pipe built out will help long term too..

    some of the roy trusts are accumulating deficits that have to be cleared up (PBT) ..others are getting into a dangerous position and may liquidate (ROYT)- long a small amt of NDRO and dripping in to it at these low prices. Bea

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Own It

    by chris.ganster Mar 4, 2016 1:33 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Mar 10, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    agree, good diversifier imo/ been long a while, avg'g down, now under $12 cost w dist, holding not adding or dripping.

    nav is about $14 w dist at 1.32/yr, (.11mo) -possible? additional distribution could come w dist now reduced from 1.56y at yr end, distributions are coming from income, not ROC..

    there was a buyback announcement last yr- but none so far-- when shares 10% or more under nav which they still are- supposed to make buys in open market..i would like to see them buy back shares to try to narrow this discount.

    BW is a good mgr but I have mixed feelings on LMCEF's at this point..sold out of CBA ng focus mlp fund and holding NTG instead, also a good amt of PIMCO funds... most CEF have come up nicely w market recovery.. and many still have nice disc to nav and good, well covered payouts like BWG.. oh well, glta, Bea

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    dist cut to .20q begin Feb 2016

    by beabaggage Feb 1, 2016 2:58 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Mar 7, 2016 12:20 PM Flag

    sold today near 7, watching NTG to add to my position there,, massive deleveraging in CBA's 2/29 report, paid notes way down, redeemed a lot of the pfd's too.. I just am not sure they know what they are doing compared to Tortoise in managing the mlp space. prefer NTG's holdings to CBA's, CBA has no SE for example. glta. Bea

    Sentiment: Sell

  • not sure how this will play out, no formal buyback, just "will buy if discount to NAV is a better inv than other opportunities" .. not sure also how I like adding potentially more risky assets to the inv mix either..
    they just came out with the 12/31/15 annual report where they felt the disc would narrow/ now worried? about the large disc? I dunno

    their track record in picking thru riskier assets like energy (Samson loss, bankruptcy among small high yield holdings) has not been great. well it is up today, tips have been doing well w wage/rent/housing/healthcare inflation- might have to reconsider this WIW holding because of the potential riskier bent potential.. it s a small holding for me.

  • beabaggage beabaggage Mar 3, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    I can't believe ALL the spam posts on the IRT board.. no wonder yoohoo is going downhill, the finance section, one of their best assets, becoming harder and harder to find value in.. I see they are writing down the tumbler $1bil to nothingness.. they should police the spam posts more imo. these people/companies who jump on for 1-2 days of posts and clutter the board.

    anyhooo, IRT moving up again which it should after the good quarter and plan for 2016 and beyond. long IRT, sorry to rant.. Bea

  • ticking higher, high yield has a bond holder's bias now vs an equity investor bias as companies try to assuage bondholder concerns about balance sheets. holding as part of income portfolio, a small position.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • 1st q,, plus if they buy back more in the quarter on the $100mil auth , which seems probable. have to listen to conf call, see what is said, guidance etc... but overall seems good, occupancy up, debt costs way down to avg 4%.. payout ratio is high but heading down, covering div. holding, adding via DRIP to modest income position, would add if it falls again in mkt volatility. glta. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What's with IRT the last 2 days???

    by boat9man Feb 22, 2016 1:56 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Feb 23, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    not much volume but Monarch/Weinstock activist holding of IRT is only 7.2% (3.4m) sh, it will be interesting to see w good yr end, good forecast/mgmt. focus on consolidation etc if they add to holdings or others become attracted. also will be interesting to see what RAS says about IRT overall and the apt space, their plans.. would seem to be a sea change in focus from growth to consolidation/value, somewhat more conservative stance.

  • Reply to

    What's with IRT the last 2 days???

    by boat9man Feb 22, 2016 1:56 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Feb 23, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    well I didn't find anything important or new or meaningful in that IRT report/"analysis"- it reminded me of the many analyses (Ford, S&P, Davis etc) that my broker provides me for "free" that do these compares- often w non related companies or failing to take in to account co. transitions/new directions in companies (like mergers, consolidations, important strategies /debt paydowns etc)
    these become increasingly tricky on reits.

    -nothing like doing your own detailed due diligence.. to me this cap cube thing is just a page click gathering device . my tracker blocker was working overtime to block them. (Ignore!!) . oh well glta, Bea

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