dist cut from .30/3.60y CA to .15/ 1.80CA, capex cut to bare min.. no hedges hurting for sure, big cash flow hit,,at least they are low debt. sp has further to fall imo probably 10-15$ at least..
another increase,,interesting r/e CMBS/REIT holding still,, selling at disc to nav etc. 1.74 on 19.70 share price today. about an 8.9% yield.
yes of course, he'd pump KMI more.. feel badly for people hiding out in his better energy plays like RDS.B and KMI, there is a lot of pain left in these issues when they catch up to the market reality of o/ng for 2015. KMI reminds me of Chesapeake in the Aubrey McC. days.. hubris, ignoring reality.
watching CNBC Cramer last night, lightning round.. someone asked him his op on PBA, he said he didn't know that one.. an 11bil company in the thick of CA o/ng infrastructure build out and he doesn't know it.. of course, if it is not on his pump agenda like KMI, he doesn't care.. I don't think he carry's any weight anymore anyway. show is hard to watch, same old same old stocks being pumped. Charles Payne's fox show on the same time, find myself watching that more and more, interesting discussions of many different companies and not too much Obama bashing to deal with like most fox shows.
possibly but the security (o/ng proved, probable, seismic completed etc plus midstream a lot of these firms own) is valuable. If o/ng can just stabilize for a while, more stuff will trade, o/ng people are by nature optimistic and if they can make the numbers work, they will buy.. most of these "investments' are just day trader penny stocks now. sad. I am certainly not adding anything yet. Bea
this company is a screaming buy for GG or NEM, ABX, IAG, why they keep messing around in Africa and s. amer is beyond me. I am hearing CA is potentially getting more liberal on environmental issues, fearing a recession and u/e if they don't let some of these developments in o/ng and minerals play out. KN is an amazing resource if you remember from the old NXG days, some of which is still available w a googl search. Bea
these stocks are all just "warrants" on an oil recovery, best to own a basket, I was so burned in the few I did own from July to Dec I did not buy into others, thankful for that, but once o/ng stabilize somewhat with all this worldwide QE, CA assets will look good to a EU investor getting .40 on his bunds or Japanese widow getting .26 on her 10yr... Bea
Sprott has their own mess /Long Run, (WRFEF/LRE.TO) which was one of the companies buying oil assets at the peak earlier in the year at the peak while LSTMF was selling stuff this year.. so much for Sprott's track record. they did sell some of their LRE in May at 5.35..now 1.27 they better hope they can get out of their 16% ownership in what's left . one little thing, big thing I guess is, I am glad for is I resisted the urge to buy into all these falling knives. of course I did keep my now almost worthless small position... the sainted few hideouts places like CVX, XOM, BNE.TO, VET, KMI all have room to fall as well. I am sure there is more pain to come in most, oil seems to have stabilized very short term 44-48$. o/ng companies being priced like coal, it is not coal and does not have coal's problems.
getting interesting for a small add again on price, doesn't seem to be any energy exposure in here mostly the usual suspects financial preferreds etc there was a small year end cap gain of .30 paid in 2014, small ROC payouts concern me as it could lead to dist cut, not much cushion in cap gain. again "limited duration" is interesting because the portfolio seems to be longer in duration than prospectus indicates.. which means more interest rate exposure as well... here is what original 2012 prospectus says about "duration"..maybe they mean call features "limit duration" Bea
The Fund seeks to initially target a weighted average modified duration (“duration”) of four years
(calculated without giving effect to the Fund’s leverage), and thereafter not more than six years. However, undercertain market conditions, the Fund’s duration may be longer or shorter than six years. In seeking to maintain itstarget duration, the Fund will invest significantly in floating-rate and fixed-to-floating-rate preferred securities, which tend to be less price-sensitive to rising interest rates (or yields) than fixed-rate securities with similar terms to maturity. Duration incorporates certain characteristics of a security, such as the security’s yield, coupon payments (including the frequency of coupon resets, if applicable), price and par value, final maturity (if any) and call features, into one measure.
blackoutbuzz, you really called things.. to me, this is an amazing company, I am not long but when you see a quality firm off 40% from it's highs, you put it on your watchlist if a long term investor. to me, the whole market is at least 15% overvalued now due to low rates and unrealistic earnings expectations w world slowdown in 2015..because it seems like anytime you see anything negative like a warning, product concern, price pressure (not accounting irregularity related,) the share prices fall 15%. maybe irrational logic but an interesting observation. take Gilead, when CVS brought Abbvie competition into things, stock fell about 15%.. so I reset my buy prices in my long term portfolio watch list 15% lower ..
squiggz- me too he seems pretty smart, ya have to diversify as 2008 showed us all this stuff is so interconnected,, I see the forex traders fallout this morning, market will be nervous going into MLK holiday love these volatile days, you can get a bargain here or there off your hot/watch lists..some of the Pimco funds looking interesting as well but I don't think the "no Gross" fallout is done yet, again there may be some interesting buy points yet to come. Bea
he is spot on so far in call on 10yr yield falling daily now 1.76%. fallout worldwide due to swiss surprise today to stop peg to 1.20EU I am sure will crush someone, will be interesting to see the carry trade fallout from that and how it affects fixed income and forex. sadly it probably means less liquidity but maybe better buying points for high yield to come,,keeping some powder dry, these h/yield CEF's could revisit lows.
its all day traders now in these penny energy stocks, so these moves will be swift and volatile for sure...take your pick of many, twin butte, spyglass, argent, eagle, parallel, lstmf, pwe, sgy, long run, sandridge, et al.. oil all over the place today, was up at one point now down again. people who got crushed when the swiss stopped pegging to 1.20EU probably got margin calls, fall out from that as yet to be determined, gold and silver pains from 2011-2014 may soon be over. oil/ng probably needs a long basing, consolidating period here, we will never be immune and it will take years to forget the Saudi/UAE/Kuwaiti oil terrorism that can happen at any time, in the long run that will mean higher prices for all...just getting thru it will make for a tough year. I think the "unsafe country" premium that was in the market for Iran, Libya, Nigeria etc will be replaced by a "dumping" premium to justify capital commitments.. I avg'd into lstmf to under $5 and sold 1/2 at 7 and 8$, kept 1/2 of it, no one really saw this coming. I hope RUS blockade's Saudi tankers, sends a message or some Iranian boats aim for and ram one or two, or an easier target like one from Kuwait or UAE.. get their attention. massive layoffs in us/ca also will get republican attention soon. Bea
from a short term perspective they are over due for an equity sale, as per their own news releases on how they wil pay for acquisitions.. so long term or intermediate term a decent medical reit play but short term with the price up they may drop the share bomb on ya..and you could get a decent drop to buy in at that point.
it is also possible the producers may demand better rates to move the product, squeezing margins and cash flow.. they are already pressuring oil service companies big time..so the toll takers may have to participate in the pain as well. rails, truckers, pipelines et al... the bankers and debt market may also command a higher interest rate to finance capital investment with the new uncertainty of Middle East oil market terrorism (IE we will drop oil on the market and slam you anytime we feel like it and don't care about the consequences..) so I think this is a good company overall-maybe a little debt happy-- but there could be better entry points despite sell off lately. Bea
PEMEX just let 10k people go and is having a very hard time as is Mexico,, there is an article on Bloomberg today about it
from canadianinsider dotcom... Wright is CEO.. Bea
Jan 8/2015 Wright, John David Direct Ownership Common Shares - Acquisition in the public market 150,000 $1.03
best to own a basket of these "penny stock" CA E&Ps there is a lot of insider, board of director buying going on in most.. can't fight the Saudi's $1tril war chest war on US/CA.. MX is a mess, Pemex will layoff 50k this year, MX may be an oil importer this year, already importing a lot of US NG. Ultimately this uncertainty by the new oil "terror"-- price cutting and waging war w dumping-- will result in a higher cost of capital and much higher prices in the long run..for the surivors, that is the question, who survives.. sad. Bea
here is a nice little gem also in the release, EF/Catarina site drilling costs way down...
•Targeted well costs at Catarina in 2015 are approximately $5 million per well (down from approximately $7.5 million per well), driven by service sector price reductions and increased efficiencies... // it will be an interesting year, driving cost inefficiencies not only from which areas are viable BUT from high priced drilling and ancillary costs, scared labor premiums will come down ...etc.. MLP's/RR's/Truckers. watch out ..you are next."we want better transport prices"