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Apartment Investment and Management Company Message Board

beabaggage 95 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 24, 2014 3:18 PM Member since: Nov 13, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Is the dividend in danger?

    by rogere1946 Oct 24, 2014 12:02 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 24, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    these companies will cut stated capex by a large amount imo..more well workovers, tie ins, look at well spacing to reduce costs etc before they cut divs. we still have upper BC ng assets that are not really focus that could be sold. we also own a lot of our own infrastructure it is painful for sure, added a little at 3.50 for a trade, maybe some more as volatility picks up and oil bears continue to raid the market, keeping my long term holding here for yield too.. BTE, CPG, TBTEF look good as well for long term adds imo.. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Look at the positive side

    by quailrunrd Jul 24, 2014 6:27 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 17, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    Chris Kimble charting says 15 on silver is bottom, so we are close according to him. Market Anthropology blog site technical charts w some indepth historical perspective says generational type bottom in commodities similar to 1999ish and look out above, w further charting indicating silver bursts higher.. you can googl these names and look at their perspective for free.. it seems like a good time to add a little g/s to long term holdings which I did via CEF selling at an 8% disc to nav of 60% gold bullion, 40% silver bullion and ASA, a good diversified closed end fund as well at a disc to gold holdings.. re EXK I put a limit order in to buy at $3.50, if I can get some there, fine, if not fine too for now, w market volatility these things are trading all over the place.. glta. Bea.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by r_ridgeback Oct 16, 2014 12:00 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 16, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    hard to say short term, PXD is still drilling a lot on our royalty lands..so there is expense..don't expect them to let up which is great long term for long dist stream in this perpetual trust going fwd. read an article yesterday on PXD on Seeking Alpha by Jennifer Warren "fundamentals of Pioneer, Permian " 10/15, which shows PXD's Permian netbacks are extremely high in the Wolfcamp/Sparberry area, very reassuring since this is PXD's focus area. they should just take out NDRO for 12-13, people would bail in a heart beat, PXD keep all the income.. Bea

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • should help as we shop assets and firm, EF and S. TX NG wells seem to be doing better than projected which would mean these assets are potentially more valuable in a bolt on acquisition or if co is sold as per 10/1 news release. good hedges, Cash Flow, company in compliance on debt, plans to reduce debt further into year end w higher production and no capex, lower admin exp now.. declared dist for Nov .02CA as well.. oh well. RBC stress tested many O/NG including Canadian firms 10/14 at $80WTI, I posted link to PDF on the recent LSTMF 300% article on Seeking Alpo and it is on the stock house canandian board sites as well.. interesting read. remember, WTI has traded near 80 several times since 2011.. glta, trading at 2.01 at 1230 in CA up .21 from yesterday on higher than normal volume.. Bea

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Up-Date & Divvie Announcement

    by oilly2bed Oct 13, 2014 1:38 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 14, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    you don't think Germany, the biggest carbon polluter in EUR won't burn all the Saudi oil they can get this winter?? rather than pay RUS watch this get interesting. We need a North American cartel to stop this madness, won't happen w greenies still enjoying their wind and sun power..but we may get some loosening of the export restrictions.. CPG is already allowed to export some CA oil via West Coast.. a few inroads in TX on a few exports..little things can make a big difference. Saudi is going to bankrupt Venezuela and that will kill OPEC once and for all. decent 3rd/4th q hedges will help a little.. oh well. Winter coming to EUR, #$%$ , China and of course US/CA..Japan should burn a lot w their nuke plants still out, w YEN down, it is going to cost them too.. Bea

  • Reply to

    Down 6% on a 100 share buy

    by jsb1949 Oct 14, 2014 10:17 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 14, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    who knows.. spent way to much time on this company this year, holding as I don't need tax losses and nav exceeds debt by at least $2 or more imo, we have good hedged on etc. I am sure they will pay the .02 mo till things get better or sale etc. but again who knows. I wish they'd update their presentation, most companies pursuing sales don't just stop putting out info..nothing since 8/20 Enercom.. a few insiders keep buying each pay period, which is interesting, including 10/1 when they announced "review" number 2 lol. the Saudi's could push Venezuela into bankruptcy if this keeps up, ending OPEC, we need our own North Am OPEC w CA/MX/USA.. watch how much Oil Germany burns if RU shuts off the NG, especially w oil so cheap, reminds me of 2008 in Oil.. take care. Bea

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Down 6% on a 100 share buy

    by jsb1949 Oct 14, 2014 10:17 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 14, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    trading at 1.86 in CA down .05 on 99,000 shares so far at 12noon.. but ..painful no matter what. hedges will be very helpful as they shop the assets and to continue the distribution. I would be more afraid of the mlp's, servicers, capex for 2015 will be awful and the mlp's are leveraged to the hilt, will be hit by tax loss selling too. drilling will be postponed for sure by many.. mlp's may not get the volumes they need.. some E&P companies are up today, CXO, EOG etc.. oh well.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • harborfunds dotcom... copied from 9/26 announcement still holding in my 401k for safety, growth,
    Effective Friday, September 26, 2014, the portfolio managers of the Harbor Bond Fund are Scott Mather, CIO U.S. Core strategies, Mark Kiesel, CIO Global Credit, and Mihir Worah, CIO Real Return and Asset Allocation.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Selling Volumes

    by doddleon Oct 13, 2014 1:52 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 13, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    this trades with high yield bonds even if possibly more secure overall.. so if you believe high yield sell off is overdone, then you nibble, if not, maybe more short term pain. long term could be a good point to establish a starter small position. I have been nibbling on high yielders, many CEF's have sold off and are at huge discounts, again maybe more to follow but 10y treasury looking like 2% or less coming, if you can get 5-6% more from high yielders, it is an attractive premium. long term, not a trader personally, glty/ Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • beabaggage beabaggage Oct 13, 2014 6:38 PM Flag

    wonder who will manage w Gross gone from Pimco.. oh well. still holding some in my 401k, good long term earner.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    the Word

    by apax0260 Sep 22, 2014 5:29 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 13, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    suggest you review last few years of monthly dist announcements on their website and this years quarterlies, 2012,13 annual reports, it gives you a good idea of what to expect, seems flatish production wise to me and dist depends on o/ng pricing and XTO/XOM costs on the royalty lands. I feel comfortable w my long term holdings and adding a little in the 25 area.. this went to 14 in the crash, recovered quickly.. pretty wild times in the oil patch, I don't trade much, long term holdings mostly w due diligence so I am not a day trader...commodity cycle may be bottoming soon, I just read a good analysis of this compared to historical trend on Market Anthropology blog site, catching a falling knife is painful and bloody but when the wounds heal and you have diversified, you get some great long term returns. o/ng/mlp's won't let us lose the o/ng price war, they are already pushing the lobbyists hard for more exports, w some success . trusts can't hedge so dist is what it is, probably many many years of steady income here if you need it. glty Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • beabaggage beabaggage Oct 10, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    I don't think seeking alpo realized the disservice it was doing when it stopped associating with Yahoo to it's subscribers. I don't check SA nearly as much as I used to for ideas and thoughts. it was a good source especially on Canadian companies. oh well. I would buy a little pwe at 4.50US as a spec play in the volatility we are experiencing if for no other reason than program trading etc it could touch that, putting in a limit to buy at 4.50

  • beabaggage beabaggage Oct 10, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    may add a little here, they are paying down debt, capex for 2014 is done, production strong and on target w analyst projections, minor accretive acquisition of NG/NGL assets in adjacent area recently financed by Premium DRIP, Premium DRIP to be suspended after that purchase of 2.1m is paid for.. interesting price at 2.94 US! again spec yield play on NG/Winter w advantages to US holders as no tax.. Bea

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    the Word

    by apax0260 Sep 22, 2014 5:29 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 10, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    buys in the 25-27range have been profitable long term entry points for me, one of the better perpetual trusts. short term pain of course on realized pricing as w all oil companies. so it is starting to look good to add a little here for my long term position in the trust. Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • beabaggage beabaggage Oct 10, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    or be a buying opportunity of a lifetime, get bought out or double in 6mo.. painful for sure. their cash flow is more than plentiful w hedges, debt reduced this year etc.. buying a little more here. Bea

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PXD 2014 & 2015 oil hedges

    by r_ridgeback Oct 10, 2014 12:29 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 10, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    I don't think the hedges flow thru to the trust, just to PXD, the trust is prohibited by law from hedging itself..the way I understand a hedge- it is a financial contract between two parties, oil producer and hedge paper buyer..so NDRO gets what the oil sells for .then PXD earns the money (or loses it) for the financial instrument itself and keeps (or accrues a loss) for the hedge. if I am wrong let me know please. that said, since PXD is likely to get out of Eagle Ford if it can get a good price and focus on Permian/Wolfcamp even more, in the long run it should benefit NDRO and w fear in the streets probably a good time to add a little which I am doing. glta,Bea

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Taxes on Dividends for US investor?

    by minerfan7 Sep 12, 2014 11:21 AM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 10, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    in freefall glad I waited here, some Canadian reits have gotten interesting, may be better yield plays for now.

  • Reply to

    CEO Saunders buys 71,000 #$%$ 1.63CA$ yesterday

    by beabaggage Sep 30, 2014 3:20 PM
    beabaggage beabaggage Oct 8, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    insiders continue to buy into this weakness including CEO who bot more. opec price war w the world including Saudi cuts to pricing will be challenge short term as well as tax loss selling etc. for all these oils. would not be surprised to see capex reductions, they can always ramp it up if pricing warrants. TBE's old "problem"- heavy oil- is now an asset as differentials to WTI are way down and pricing strong.. tough times! Bea

    Sentiment: Buy

  • assets, starting to look interesting, locked in 4.5% for 10yrs on recent acquisition of quality hotels, brands in good markets, OK, TX..

    Sentiment: Buy

  • beabaggage beabaggage Oct 2, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    you're welcome, of course you are correct about the favorable exchange issues w loonie down benefiting the company, I was so excited to see an up day my head was fuzzy. my main concern in posting was I am sure this company with the huge uptick showed up on day trader and other screens attracting new interest in the company with the "sale" and no one was posting here! so I was doing a quick summary. anyhooo we are now at 2.20CA up .07 again today as of 1035am.. I think unless someone comes in and makes a big offer that is acceptable to Franklin Bisset (CA/Franklin Templeton funds) who own 20% so they can get out and same some face, we will see a lot of little sales of various areas enough maybe to pay off the line of credit. another strategy could be to sell the main jazzy stuff here like EF TX and WY potential for big bucks, pay down all the debt and sell the rest or something. should be interesting and exciting for sure. I just hope it does not turn into another Advantage O&G (AAV) nightmare stretching out.. mgmt. even bought a little more this week!! very interesting huh.. wasted too much time on this company this year, be glad to get out but not yet... Bea

    Sentiment: Hold

AIV
34.39-0.20(-0.58%)Oct 24 4:01 PMEDT

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