$17 price target on NWBO
Frank, that statement was made from a doctor not involved in trials and a ton of MD Anderson doctors just signed off on their last poster presentation at SITC plus UCLA doctors..What are you afraid of with NWBO? We should root for both. If you came down with brain cancer are you hoping you get the 20% that CLDX extends life for an added 3.3 months over Avastin or for years with NWBO on the 80-100% it has amazing results on.. UCLA has put out videos onDcVAXC ! Watch them.
And more is coming in next 6 months bigger and better!
It will be the biggest advancer in 2015..too many reasons to list why.
Eight months after Neil Woodford announced his shock departure from Invesco Perpetual, investors have a chance to entrust the UK equity income guru with their cash once more. On June 19, CF Woodford Equity Income Fund will open its doors to the public, although Woodford fanatics can pre-order the fund through various fund supermarkets today. Woodford has promised investors that the new fund’s portfolio will feature many of the names he has held over the last 25 years at Invesco. The new Woodford fund will be targeting a 4% yield with aims to grow the yield to a “high single digit”. As well as key players investors will be familiar with such as pharmaceutical stocks and tobacco companies there will be an allocation to unlisted equities, particularly with a technology and innovation theme. Unlisted and micro-cap equities is a sector that Woodford feels passionate about and it is widely expected that he will launch a private equity fund in the near future. A second fund launch has been referenced by Woodford himself, although no date or portfolio information has been released. While Woodford’s performance is indubitable, many of his core holdings have rallied significantly since he last bought them. Names such as British American Tobacco (BATS) have rallied 112% over the past five years, and pharmaceuticals – which Woodford championed when nobody else would, have rallied too. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) is up 53% over five years. Woodford’s style has served him and his investors extremely well over the last two decades – but because of this, many of the holdings we have come to expect in his portfolio will not be as cheap as they were last time he bought them. And if they are not as cheap, investors should not expect them to offer the same level of returns. Speaking at a recent dinner Woodford said that while he appreciated the market had rallied he still considered there to be value in the names he loves. “This is not a 2000 stock market parallel where everything is overvalued. There are some remarkably overvalued sectors, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found,” he said. Woodford himself says this is “Woodford Funds as a company will be a very different offering – but expect business as usual when it comes to stock selection and the running of the new income fund”
In the midst of this truly positive news for CLDX and rGBM sufferers alike, I would be remiss if I failed to mention another company also in a pivotal Ph III trial, whose therapy may in the not too distant future be granted approval for ND-GBM in the US and EU (they are currently not seeking approval for recurrent GBM). That company is Northwest Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:NWBO).
People that have read any of my previous articles know of my stance on this company: it's very bullish. No reason to dance around that reality. However, the two may be able to coexist peacefully in the GBM space after all (at least in terms of their potential future balance sheets).
Rindo's target population for ND-GBM is around 25%, and a little less for recurrent cases. However, EGFRvIII is also expressed in 78% of breast carcinomas, 73% of ovarian carcinomas, 42% of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas, and 39% of non-small-cell lung cancers. The market for Rindo extends past GBM, and upon approval management will no doubt conduct trials to obtain label extension of their biologic into the above indications as well, expressing a truly massive market share.
All told, this is why they are currently undervalued at around a $1.3B market cap; the now almost certain AA of Rindo for rGBM, which also portends achieving approval for ND-GBM; the value in Rindo to treat the above various indications, and the value in Glemba for TNBC and the up-and-comer Varli.
However, if we look at the potential in NWBO relative to their market cap ($340mm), and consider that Evaluate Pharma ranks their potential WW NPV at $5.7B, with estimated annual sales of DCVax-L for ND-GBM at $2.1B (these figures would nearly double with the addition of recurrent GBM sales), and also consider the recently shown preliminary efficacy found with DCVax-Direct, a very great upside potential also lies with NWBO, despite their less attractive cash position. I've gone over other specifics on them here and here.
Though regarding competition with CLDX, a recent abstract and presentation at the SNO showed that DCVax-L is less effective in the EGFRvIII+ patients that Rindo targets. Therefore it is likely that DCVax-L, should it find approval, will not infringe upon the marketability of Rindopepimut. They may end up splitting this market with 75% going to NWBO and 25% to CLDX. And considering the urgent need in this indication with essentially no effective therapies to prolong patients' survival, deep market penetration is probable.
2. Stock seems to be gathering support 3. Powers can accept a partnership at anytime if she feels she needs it 4.german revenues to start and grow into 2015+ 5. CELG and ROCHE bought into phase 1 immunotherapy companies and show me this IS the future for consolidation. 6. Unmet medical needs and probable fast track designation 7. Late in this game to start a new short position 8. Overseas interest that doesn't care about US shorts 9. Amazing trials and personal stories just starting to be heard. 10, waking up to a major business publication touting NWBO (Forbes, Business Week, Fortune, Washington Post, Bloomberg etc)