Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board
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Open tomorrow @ $3.75....Large mutual funds loading up at these levels as the business model of online gambling will be huge for ZNGA.....
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MM trying to pick up cheap sares by flashing large ask sizes and then hoping to get retailers and traders to sell at bid. They are sweeping up all shares as their will be huge short covering in the next few days. Reminds me of what happened to NFLX...This will test $4 in next few days....=)
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My feeling 5% probab of going BK and 95% of other scenario. In the other scenario we will be trading well over $4. Also, it seems like the company has quickly planned to run a much smaller organinzation. This tells me that it is prepared to run a shell until it finds a safety resolution with Takeda or just sells itself to them since they have already invested $ hundreds of millions in the product....Very difficult to kill a biotech especially one with an FDA approved product....=)
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If you believe the company is going BK then sell, otherwise buy more or hold. I believe that at these levels it is already pricing in a high probability of BK. Thus, trading less than cash it is worth the risk since I believe it will not go BK. In that scenario we should be trading much higher...MM playing around with price to get maximum volume interest.
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Never hurts to have insider buys especially CEO. Execs really don't need to buy since they get so many stock options and normally have to diversify their exposure to the company.... Hopefully he will make lots on these purchases....=)
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Think it has developed a nioce base at these levels - ready for higher move.....=)
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Check out INSM - like their platform for pulmonary infections....Think it will be double digits in next few weeks....
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Those who sell here will be the fools in long run - too late to sell now... I have found out the point of maximum pain is when you probably buy more but only if you see value in the assets...Don't get me wrong could go lower but will eventually go much higher - will never get $20 but will get at least $8....If you own just run through scenarios now where you would buy more...Be happy if your cost is under $6 since many funds with large pos have much higher averages...If you are worried do more work in understanding the assets rather than complaining on MB....
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I am a short who became a long - my cost is in 5.30's but not complaining....Borrow rate (12%) is getting to expensive at these levels for shorts....Watch and learn - shorts have made made their money. Time to make more on the long side...=)
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They are taking it down to get more leverage on Board - they want to present a iron clad case to clean up house with the current management team...With lower share price they will soak up all the shares, get rid of Tom et all control the Board and Company and probably sell it or take it private imho...=)
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Valuation will continue to improve as the clinical trials have high probability of success. Funds trying to outhink each other as to how much stock will appreciate before/after results. Russell action will also occur during this timeframe. Of course it all comes down to clinical trial results. Based on prior Phase 2 results and history of approved drug on treating bacterial infections think we will be quite fine. After that it is up to Lewis on whether he wants to sell company, partner , or build an empire. It will be fun to see where this valuation ends up....=)
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Still love your mgmt team....Lets get rid of these underachievers and put in a team to unlock the value of these assets. A few large shareholders also agree with us....=)
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At these levels it is like a cheap call option that I am willing to bet on. Risk of an approved drug with no opportunity of coming back is slim, bankruptcy is lower chance since there will be a price that big pharma will be interested. With the layoffs and cash they can survive for a while till there is more clarity. If I told you that you can buy a house with comparables trading at $500k at $100K would you be interested , even better there is also $200k cash under the house would you buy it for $100K..People the risk/reward here is just too attractive not to take a shot on the long side...
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Got rid of short term traders and weak hands. Now they will let it run....Wall street is a dirty business- play the game or lose money....Go DNDN, ARNA, INSM ....=)
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This is what the activists investors love - weak trading stock, poor mgmt performance and undervalued assets weighed down by poor operations and inefficient cost structure. The big boys with strong network will clean up the mess get rid of inefficient mgmt team, and ready the assets for sale. This will be a big winner in next 6 months imho...
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Stretched too far downward. Ready for sharp bounce back imho...Company put out press release now they can start buying back shares....
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Now it really looks interesting as value play. Lets see how much more downside there is here. Scaling into more - wish i started buying today though...=)
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Few are covering before long w/e - now it is not worth the risk to short - only way they win if there is a bankruptcy and the odds of that are very slim...Not sure how long it will take but at these levels worth taking a risk based on even 30% probability that it comes back on mkt.
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Few other funds getting in today also. Risk/reward very good now since downside less than $.50 and upside at least $2-$5 short term Lets see how much they will buy....=)
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Fundamentally very solid...mgmt. CC reinterated revenue goals so best not to be gullible here
by bobbycon537 •Mar 28, 2013 12:05 PMFrom conversation with Mgmt they are pretty confident in the Revenue goals, just trading technically last 2 weeks, now that we have reached a buy entry think price should firm up quickly. Due for major bounce soon imho...=)