H, the only reason to watch pice, volume, options, etc... is for a trade. You think Buffett cares about any of that? He's done OK without. You don't like IBM - ok, what are you doing with cash?
You're right, maybe Buffett is selling b/c BRK's landscape is changing.
That was a quick switch, H. Even for you, LOL...
H, we agree on all that, as we have been discussing for 10+ years. BRK is at all time highs and outperforming SPY despite everything Buffett has done NOT to move the stock. As for IBM, you have to ask 2 questions: (1) Does Buffett's 50 years of following the stock, along with certain discussions with Gates and others qualify him to understand the company's propsects better than most; and (2) Have IBM's issues since Buffett bought the stock come as a surprise to him? If Buffett is anything, he is overly conservative with BRK's capital - hence all the issues you have raised. There is -0- chance he would have made his largest equity investment of all time in a company he did not understand. IBM's issues do reflect a changing landscape, but there is no way thar Buffett does hot have a handle on that landscape.
Not really. Buffett has no control of IBM and its operations. His influence of the stock price will be fleeting (in either direction - look at every other equity Buffett has ever purchased). If you're long IBM you believe that the sky is not falling.
H, as someone with a vested interest, I don't care what the stock does today or for the rest of the year.
Would be shocked if Buffett sold any other than for tax purposes. Hard to imagine Buffett did not see some of this coming. Its not as if IBM is going to -0- and BRK has so many other investment options. Just a hunch, Buffett understands IBM, both then and now.
Just short the puts, H. Let me guess, you're making money long SPY and BRK, LOL.... I could care less what the markets do today or this week. Personally, I've got a lot of cash collecting dust and a 20% haircut would be just fine.
H, why so fixated on daily (hourly?) price moves? IBM is the poster child for tax-selling. Let's see what happens in 2015.
Well, some here are rather enjoying the collpase in the price of oil. As a bonus, if that's what it takes for stocks to be more reasonably valued, here's hoping for $30 oil.
H, this has nothing to do with BRK (we all agree that BRK share repurchases 3 years ago and beyond would have made sense).
C'mon H, he wants IBM to repurchase as many shares as possible. This is not to say he wants IBM to overpay for shares. In some ways, I'm more comfortable owning a company like IBM than AAPL. With AAPL, what if someone comes along and creates a better mousetrap? (This already happened once to AAPL, something most people dont remember or choose to ignore). IBM is not so much tied to singlular products. The question is, does Buffett understand the company and see a future in its products and services? He could have invested in AAPL but chose not to. Instead, he undoubtedly had many conversations with Gates and others before making his single largest equity investment. Short term issues and price action mean nothing to Buffett.
That makes my point: Buffett anticipates that IBM shares will be lower and more shares repurchased at cheaper prices. This won't happen if IBM's earnings trajectgory continues upward as planned. I had no interest in IBM at $200; in the $150s, it looks a lot better and even if earnings are poor for years to come, the dividend is far better than what is earned today on cash.
H, IBM is the largest single purchase of any equity every made by Buffett. He has been following the company for most of his lifetime. IBM was already having issues when Buffett first purchased the stock. Buffett told us (in his typical way) that the stock was going to fall. Your assumption is Buffett knew nothing about the company when he made the acquisition and the current issues came as a complete surprise to him. I'll take the other side of that bet.
H, if Buffett is selling for tax purposes, what difference does it make? If indeed, BRK sells some shares for tax purposes, unless Buffett is liquidating the position for other reasons, don't you think he may repurchase those shares at lower prices? If he liked IBM at 180 - 200 and his thesis on the company remains intact, why would he not repurchase shares at 160?
Todd, agreed that supply and demand trump all, but is it simple? Seems as though current supply vastly exceeds demand, which is the inverse of the long term scenario. How long it takes for the long term trend to kick back in is anyone's guess, but in the mean time, oil and energy prices continue to fall. What's interesting (to me, anyway) is falling oil prices are seen as negative for equity prices - go figure.