Bravo for upholding basic standards of literacy. I have concluded that the urologists are useless. Basically, if your annual physical shows a rising PSA, you will be shuffled off to a urologist, who will perform a biopsy which will almost certainly show some abnormal cells, after which they will whip out your prostate. This is their major source of income. They will leave you incontinent and impotent, convinced that these quacks have saved your life. If you really do have prostate cancer, the removal of your prostate will, surprisingly, make no difference. When your PSA continues to rise, even in the absence of your P, you will be passed off to an oncologist, who really wants to put you in a Barcolounger and have his crew hook you up to an IV, which is where he makes his money. Writing you a prescription for some pills (e.g.Xtandi or Zytiga) leaves the Barcoloungers vacant. When medicine advances, as history repeatedly demonstrates, it does so in the face of opposition from the medical establishment. As George Bernard Shaw pointed out, a pjysician has no pecunIary interest in curing you, but in treating you endlesly.
Jgmtruth - he/she can speak for himself - seems to feel that insider selling puts downward pressure on the stock price. Perhaps. It' seems unlikely that 100-200,000 shares thrown into the market intelligently can push the stock down significantly. On the other hand, I believe that about 90% of the trading in this market is phony -- just the MM's passing the stock back and forth or following the momentum they create themselves. In that context, genuine buying or selling seems to frighten them. This stock was held down for hours today by a sell order for a mere 8600 shares at123.50. Which, to me, demonstrated a lack of conviction. After the flash selloff at the open, I 'd say that the stock was held back by a lack of buyers rather than by active sellers. As for Baker Brothers, we won't know what theybought or sold until they file their next 13f in the middle of May. However, if they or anyother large holder were unloading shares, they would start by spiking the share price at the open and then walking it down. Which would be the reverse of what happened today.
Also note that while PCYC volume today was only slightly higher than the 3-month average, GILD volume was about 80% higher and CELG volume was almost 3 times the 3-month average
Actually, I'm talking about large lots reported after hours which have no apparent effect on the stock price, indicating that they were the amalgamation of many small trades made during the regular session. I was so sure that it would close at 123.20 that I put in one last buy order for 100 shares at 123.02 ...or thought I did. Apparently I typed an extra "0" and got 1,000 shares. Which I was able to sell at 123.20. (Whew!)
If I'd bought up an additional 10% of the float and only got a 40 cent bump in share price, I'd be disappointed. I might even nag the board into some kind of desperate action. Like having a company which loses $122 million a year sue a company which makes $8.3 billion a year.
Well, since I own all three stocks, it was an interesting day. I had sold all three out of my IRA ahead of the biotech selloff and am in the process of rebuilding my positions. I now have a lot more PCYC in the IRA than I'd planned, a full position in GILD, and a half position in CELG. The stories behind today's action seem quite different. The GILD issue revolves around IDIX's suits on the Hepatitis C drug patent. In IDIX I see a company with $122 million in the bank which is losing about that much per year. (They have been apparently bankrolled by the Baupost Group recently to the tune of about $100 million, and I don't know if that money is included in the $122 million.) GILD has $2.13 billion in the bank and earns about $8.7 billion per year. I think they paid something on the order of $12 billion for their HC drug. I'll bet on GILD to prevail.
CELG's issue seems to be the British National Health's reluctance to certify Revlimid for second line MM treatment. In the US, Revlimid is the standard of care for MM. The trend is to apply it earlier in the course of the disease to the "smoldering" MM, which would have been previously untreated. CELG has a next generation version, Pomalyst, which is also used as a second line MM treatment. I don't see a major impact here either. (Although, at $163k per year, I can understand the Brits' desire to go with good old generic thalidomide.)
As for PCYC, all that's certain is that for five hours today someone with deep pockets was buying it above 123 and selling it above 123.20. Whether they were accumulating it at that level or shorting it there should become evident soon. As of yet, there's no sign of the large lot at 123.20 which I expected crossing AH.
Well, watch for that large block at about 123.20 to be reported at the bell. I am always suspicious of price action which happens following an unexplained spike or dip at the open. The only remaining question is whether they will give it one more dunking before the close. I'd assume so, in which case I will be adding more shares.
Well, you were right about the descent to 125. (and beyond) However, note that the 9 point drop at the open was the result of 100,000 shares being thrown into the market at the open. At the moment, they are sitting on the bid, incredibly enough, by offering 8,600 shares at 123.50. When the market closes, watch for a large block at around 123.20, which is where I think shares are being accumulated. I have added more shares today, via 100 share orders put in at improbably low prices. I have more orders all the way down to 120. What makes the drop unconvincing to me is the fact that the biotech index is barely down at all and that much more speculative biopharmas (e.g. RLYP, XNCR, PBYI) are doing well today, while the stalwarts of the category, GILD and CELG, have sold off.
However, as we can see here, JGM, the WPX (Whine and Pout Index) is making new highs. It seems to me that the stock has good support at 130. I bought more shares today at 130 and 129 and sold half just above 129. I think that if the market can stabilize, this will run to 140 fairly quickly, which I think is an attractive place to sit and wait for more news. My rebuilt position in my IRA is at 131.45. The encouraging thing today was that it managed to bounce a point and a quarter off its low. My own practice is to buy some stocks on days when the market is down more than 200 points. So I added some PCYC, M, IDRA, TOL, HPQ, and XNCR.
Friday you were "waiting for 125". Now, a few days later, you seem to be griping that the stock hasn't reached 200. At the moment, the stock is still up a bit for the day while the Amex Biotech Index is down1.58%.
The Janssen division of JNJ is focused on oncology drugs. They have Doxil for ovarian cancer and multiple myeloma, Procrit for anemia in chemo patients, Zytiga for prostate cancer, and, of course, Imbruvica for MCL and CLL. In fact, almost all of JNJ's growth is coming from this division.
This stock, like virtually every other biotech, made its high on Feb 25'th. There is a general rotation out of this sector underway. If you look at the bellwether of the sector, GILD, you will note a weakening after Feb 25, even in the face of an S&P advance. It took Cramer almost a week to notice what was underway, and when he did, he had a facile explanation ready: Biotech was a safe haven from the vicissitudes of the overall market - it offered the prospect of growth, even in a stagnant economy. This would suggest a rotation into financials and industrials, which may have begun, if somewhat timidly. I think this is a partial explanation; the other part is that the sector is overextended, with virtually every stock and the biotech indexes needing a pause. For example, FBIOX, the Fidelity Select Biotech Fund, has quadrupled over the past 4 years. I don't think this means that one should abandon the stocks with real prospects. But certainly this was a time to reposition yourself in some of these, particularly in your IRA's, where there are no real tax consequences for taking profits. I sold CELG, GILD, and some others out of my IRA's on 2/28, and am now rebuilding those positions somewhat gingerly.
As for pre-chemo, some of the analysts obviously expected more off-label usage than they got. Particularly Credit-Suisse and Jeffries, who were the two biggest cheerleaders. So, at this point after the post conference call drop, it's fair to say that pre-chemo has been priced out of the stock ... at least for the short term. What has not been priced out, I believe, is the acquisition premium.
PS This genie, like so many of the sprites who propound this silly stuff, is apparently a big believer in DNDN and Provenge. I am reminded of the 19'th century followers of William Miller, who, after his death, gathered around his body awaiting his resurrection. But even they, after the body began to stink, eventually gave up and left.
Paradoxically, I didn't buy Facebook and now can't find a reason to do so. Bernard Baruch's approach to investing was "Put all your eggs in one basket and watch the basket." But it's been demonstrated to my satisfaction that if you have fewer than 40 stocks in your portfolio, you are overexposed to the risk of one or two faltering.
Good for you. But 25% of your portfolio in one stock seems a bit too much to me. I would be inclined to take the profit on the shares @ 130 today.
Perhaps. But I think it's futile to try to pick an absolute bottom. I doubled up in my taxable account @ 131. The sudden drop at 1PM coincided with a sudden 50 point drop in the Amex Biotech Index. It only took 40,000 shares being thrown into the market to push PCYC down 3 points. However, just as I think that 70 was the arbitraged price for MDVN - a level to which it rebounded today - I think that 140 is the price for PCYC.
Therefore, any price under 132 is a good price.
Okay, now I've rebuilt what I consider a complete position in my IRA at an average price of 131.45. However, if it bounces above 132, I will buy it for a trade.
Again, this sector - and almost everything in it - made their highs on Feb.25. A lot of the selling has already taken place, and I think we are seeing an active bear raid here. I have reestablished a partial position in PCYC in my IRAtoday at an average price of 132.02.