Note that the presenter on ibrutinib in Waldenstrom's was Dr. Treon, of Dana Farber, home of the Bing Center, which is dedicated to Waldenstrom's. In fact, Dana-Farber, by my estimate, treats the vast majority of US Waldenstrom's patients. This is an automatic.
.. which are virtual certainties. Yet some here are growing impatient. If they want to convince us that the price is 120 in the meantime, that's fine with me. Under the circumstances, I'd say that it's a relatively easy decision to add shares. Obviously, the fact that the ASH presentations were as expected somehow created an opportunity to scare the retail longs. As we tick down toward the inevitable FDA rulings, the stock becomes ever more valuable in my eyes.
I don't think anyone assumes that this drug will be on the market tomorrow. If it were, the stock would be worth $200. I think the runup is a rational reaction to the trial results and the potential they imply.
If you really are in the aviation industry, as your first post suggests, you should learn how to spell "descent" - it's an important part of the process. The shorts were having their way with this today, and I'd say that most were so confident that they are sitting on their positions overnight. We will see. I am prepared to play this both ways without selling my cheap shares in the last weeks of the year and paying all that tax money.
PS Whenever someone blathers "next stop 99-95 range" you can be sure that they've just risked $170 on a Jan100 put contract.
A pause here while the large holders sell puts to the nonbelievers ...and it looks like they've found some buyers. (Assuming that not even markr would be foolhardy enough to actually short a stock like this.) In fact, the stock really hasn't moved up since the price targets were moved up. This is a normal phase in the progress of a successful drug stock where the impatient depart.
Yes, the canny Baker Brothers own a bit of almost everything biotech. As of their most recent 13f, IDRA constituted .15% of their portfolio. PCYC constituted 17.7% of their portfolio. According to my calculations, this means they have bet about $12 million on IDRA and $1.06 billion on PCYC. Note: In the past, they have also bet on some notable losers, such as ARIA, VVUS, etc. As of their 13f, they only had a tiny (for them) position in PBYI, which has doubled since then. On balance, obviously, they pick more winners than losers. And it's always worthwhile to see what they're holding.
The positive news isn't really news. We're all still waiting for the major FDA approvals. The impatient are being shaken out here. Paradoxically, when a large entity wants to establish a position, they will often begin by driving the price down. You can see that with GILD today. Even the mighty CELG, by the way, after being up 2.50 is now down 1.63. But don't tell me that the managers who are underweight CELG and GILD won't want to be showing them in their portfolios by year end. Besides, for a retail investor, who wants to sell these stocks in the last few weeks of the year and pay all those taxes?
In spite of a major raise in price target to $110 by Credit Suisse. GILD, of course, was supposed to have a major competitor to ibrutinib in idelalasib, and I believe their ASH presentation was today. Nevertheless, a great company. Couldn't resist adding some here at 70.50. Looks like they're going to a bitrge PCYC @120 for a while. Precisely what happened with SNTS: locked at 23.75 until the buyout by Salix @ 32 was announced. A little cynicism is called for in this market.
Do you mean that someone actually pays attention to SA? Down 1.80 this morning on 60,000 shares. Not exactly a mass exodus. In fact, probably just hopeful retail shorts. We seem to be attracting them here.
Well, we seem to be opening with dips on weak volume, then moving upward. Volume Friday was 1/3 of Thursday's. Today was half of Friday's. I'd say the stock continues to be under accumulation.
Thanks for your posts, jgm. Amidst all the blather, it's good to be reminded of just how powerful this story is.
Oh-oh. Holy, when we last talked you were rethinking your short and talking about buying the dips.
The trial for idealalisib, the much ballyhooed GILD CLL drug uses it in combo with Rituxan. I think there are persuasive arguments for using ibrutinib in place of Rituxan. And saving Rituxan for the cases which progress on ibrutinib.