You do not own this stock as a bet on the refining sector. You own it for its dividend stream - particularly in tax-deferred accounts. For over three weeks at the beginning of this year, you could accumulate it in the 22 area - or as low as 18.66 if your timing was impeccable. If you bought it at an average price of 22, you would have a stock which is paying over 10% in dividends and which has appreciated another 19%. Over the same timeframe, CVX and XOM - often cited as a safe source of dividends - are down 8 - 12%. And, since the beginning of the year, the Dow Jones Utility Index - another obvious source of dividends - is down almost 11%. If you were buying the stock for the right reason, it has performed brilliantly. You might as well compare it to AAPL or FB as to VLO - all equally meaningless.
There are many who believe this stock is overvalued, which is demonstrated by the sizable short position. But I believe that without dumping shares in at the market, Citron's credibility is not substantial enough to precipitate a selloff. The high retail interest obviously makes the stock vulnerable to panic selling. The usual wolves will try to join in on the kill - you can see some of them posting here, citing Citron's brilliant research, etc. However it remains to be seen whether they can exit the scrum without being bitten. I am neither long nor short this stock, since I sold it at around 38 if I recall, erroneously believing that it was fully valued.
Having seen this raider work in the past, I would suggest that unless he can drive the stock a lot lower, he's in trouble. His technique seems to consist of accumulating a short position while simultaneously accumulating a smaller long position. His wolfpack, having been alerted by his newsletter, is ready to go along for the ride. He then announces his short position publicly and throws his long position into the market, which drives the price down and panics the retail investors. Meanwhile, his wolfpack is shorting into the weakness. He has paid for his short profit bybselling his long position at a loss. I think that if he can't drop it substantially more than this, he will be hung out to dry.
I'd say there is a large shortseller here. They were not content to let the stock settle @ 34.25, which it seemed to want, but dunked it below 34 one last time. Obviously, the fact that AAL seemed to find a bottom at 40 is worrisome for the shorts. AAL and LUV both released their PRASM, traffic, and capacity numbers, and if you do the arithmetic, you'll see that they're still going to make a lot of money.
Well, that was a very thorough rebuttal to the "25% approval" estimate of an unnamed - and perhaps nonexistent - investment firm. I did very well with Medivation, although I am out of it now and it seems to have fallen below its former support level of 129. I think it's long been clear that Xtandi and Zytiga don't work for everyone. My reading of the trial data - which is a lot less informed than Dr. John's - suggests to me that the chances for approval are quite good.
As a footnote, the only reason to post negative opinions on a particular pharma stock is because you have taken a short position in it.
Noting that Lee Kalowski, the former biotech analyst at C-S(and a very good one, in my opinion), is now the CFO here. Meanwhile, Cheryl Cohen, the former Chief Commercial Officer at Medivation, is added to the BOD. I'm guessing that this company gets sold to either MDVN or JNJ.
Common sense would tell you that the big generic players (Teva et al) eventually have to buy into the biosimilar space. I own this as well as CHRS and EPRS, and this seems to be outperforming the others.
Well, EPRS and CHRS are also up today, but much less dramatically. I note that the Brazilian health authority, AVISA, approved the Celltrion biosimilar for Remicade yesterday. Perhaps this is interpreted as a good sign for Epirus's product in the rest of Latin America.
Personally, I think even 7% capacity growth is going to be difficult for them unless a whole lot of pilots miraculously appear.
The fact that all of the airlines jumped at precisely the same moment suggests a "fat finger" event to me. Some trader accidentally entered a buy order for a few million shares of same airline ETF. Just guessing, but in my IRA, I'm selling into this.
Someone here is posting that this is due to the Southwest Chairman saying they planned to cap capacity growth at 7%, But that news is almost a week old. Still trying to find out what is happening.
In any event, an unpleasant surprise for all of those who short the airlines as a hedge against oil.
I don't see any announcement about May load factors or traffic, so perhaps this has something to do with restrictions on foreign carriers?
What you say is generally true. Particularly when a large number of options are about to expire near a popular strike, they will tend to get dragged toward that price. This doesn't require manipulation on the part of the MM's. The options holders themselves create this phenomenon as they try to take their profits. (The knowledgeable ones usually having already taken their profits well in advance of the expiration.) However, in the case of EXEL, this effect should be slight. The only substantial options position, the 3.50 calls, represents less than 1% of the float. Meanwhile, 25% of the float is short. If the stock were to gain some upwards momentum, I think, the washing out of the short position would more than offset the "max pain" effect.
Wasn't Rasmussen the pollster who predicted a big win for Romney? I'd say that demographics is not his strong suit.