You are a wonderful person and your concern for the constipated is truly inspirational.
PS Do you teach psychology at a junior college? It's all coming together for me now.
Nah. You seem to assume that I have linked my financial fortunes to IRWD, as you have tied yours to SGYP.
In my personal portfolio, IRWD is the 18'th largest position out of 26. My largest holding is AAL (+5.89% today), and my second largest is INCY (+7.09%). In fact, my portfolio was up 4.56% today. I even bought into CRZO on the early dip and ended up making 6.68% on that. In my IRA, IRWD is 13'th largest position out of 44. Even though this is a more conservative portfolio with a good chunk of cash and large positions in dividend-paying stocks, I managed to eke out a 2.54% gain today. In spite of poor old IRWD only advancing 1%. My wife's portfolio, which has no IRWD, made 3.2% today. So no, I don't have that sinking feeling right now.
The relative weakness of this stock has become even more evident since I posted this last Tuesday.
Today, the Oct6 call was being sold for 1.25. In other words, you can buy a month and a half of the upside on this stock to 43 cents. If there's a buyout in the offing, this is easy money for you longs.
And then, of course, there's yours truly - an IRWD long with no position in this stock. The board would be more interesting if the longs had anything of substance to post aside from daydreams about $18 buyouts and Linzess being withdrawn from the market. For example, I maintain that it has taken Linzess 3 years since approval to pass Amitiza in market share for CIC. They are still losing money and have racked up almost a billion dollars in losses. They are now spending money on DTC advertising, which is causing their losses to increase. They are discounting their drug heavily with coupons which take the co-pay down to $30. (This ain't Harvoni, folks.) However, at their current rate of growth (56% yoy), they should have an 80% share of the CIC market by the time the SGYP drug ever comes to market. They already have a healthy share of the IBS/constipation market, which I assume is off-label, since the results of their IBS/C trial won't be released until later this year. So perhaps some hopeful long will explain the great marketing opportunity here for SGYP.
Don't you think that the FTC would frown upon buying two companies with competing products which dominate the CIC market and then withdrawing one of the products from the market? Particularly since Linzess seems to be the more effective product and recently replaced Amitiza on the CVS formulary?
I first came on here not because I was short but because I held a modest long position in IRWD. Some of your fellow longs came on the IRWD board crowing about your trial results. When I ventured to this board, I saw the same pattern which won me so many enemies on the DNDN and ARNA boards: (1) Inexperienced investors who had a large part of their assets in this one stock. (2) The belief that the stock, having had a dramatic runup, was sure to go even higher --although it was clearly going down. (3) A belief that "trapped shorts" and hedge funds desperate to get their shares were manipulating the price downward. (4) Fantasies of huge premiums to be paid by acquiring companies, none of which ever materialized.
I recall that the poster on ARNA who attacked my motives in the same way that you do here once accused me of talking him into selling some of his share just under 10. I don't think it ever crossed 10 again. If you owned 10,000 shares of SGYP when I first began to question its value, at around 9.60, and had believed me enough to sell half your position, you would have saved $13,900 of your profits. To this point.
Well, it has occurred to me that my boss, known to me only as BHFM (Beloved Hedge Fund Master) has threatened to dismiss me from my paid basher position because he has engaged a coterie of inept pumpers to drive the stock down more effectively.
On the contrary, I challenge all of your blithe assumptions.(1) Your trial results were woeful, showing effectiveness barely above that of the placebo.(2) Your balance sheet is teetering. If I recall, your debt is equal to the cash on hand, and the consensus projections are for you to lose more than $150 million in the next year and a half. By which time, IF everything goes according to your happy scenario, you MIGHT be ready to bring a product to market and start losing serious money. (3) Your reading of the NASDAQ figures to indicate serious institutional ownership is pathetic. Aside from Paulson's position, the only institutional position of any significance is Orbimed's 3 million or so shares, which were a hedging position for a much larger position in Ironwood (and have probably been sold by now). The "institutional" positions you gush about - Vanguard, Wellington, Blackrock, etc - are the largest marketers of ETF's and index funds, They hold positions in ALL companies. If you look at the same listing for a certified loser like ARNA, you will see all the same names. And when you hold shares in SGYP - unless you actually take physical possession of them - they are held in the name of your brokerage or a custodian such as State Street, and are therefore listed as held by an institution. By the way, if one of these institutions or their customers holds shares short, that is also listed as an institutional holding.
A lot of physicians apparently think Linzess is safe, too. As of 8/21, 41,723 total prescriptions, of which 18,740 were new prescriptions.
Stellarresults' first appearance here was on August 3, when he wrote, "alI I know is the market is usually right and if Synergy is going up while Ironwood is going down, well, that is all I have to know .." Synergy closed at 8.95 that day and Ironwood closed at 10.54. So, in slightly less than a month, SGYP has dropped 23.8% while IRWD has gone up 4.3% ... in the face of a 13% drop in the XBI.
Your childish faith in the outdated guesstimates of 3 brokers (down from the 5 rating it in the prior month) is touching. Since you obviously take these things at face value, why would you waste your time with this easy 6 point gain? Why not buy some FCX at 9.82 here, since 15 analysts have a median target of 19.25 there? Or buy some BABA at 65.26, since the consensus target of 41 brokers there is 95.92?
Why do you persist in displaying your ignorance? E-coli bacteria are present in the intestinal tract of all mammals ..and in particularly high concentrations in humans. They're essential to the digestive process. In fact, if you didn't have e-coli in your gut, you'd probably be seriously constipated.
If you believe this, you should jump in and buy those Jan6 calls for 1.80 - that's 4 1/2 months of upside for just 80 cents. If it gets back to 9.60 by expiration in January, you'll double your money. If it gets bought out at 15, as many here predict, you'll multiply your money more than 5x. Who knew this stuff was that easy?
Awwwww. By "valuable posts" do you mean the ones which predict an imminent buyout at 15+? Or the nonsense about Linzess being doomed because it contains a form of e-coli? Or the ones which exult about the inevitable capitulation of "trapped shorts". If you want a soothing bedtime story, I think these popular fairytales are still available here.
Incidentally, when i was being a wet blanket on the DNDN board and owned a position in MDVN, iit was often pointed out that MDVN "only owned half a drug". (They were partnered with Astellas.). MDVN eventually went over 140; DNDN eventually went bankrupt. Moral: Half a good drug is better than all of an inferior drug.