It seems to me that the stock has been supported by large block trades recently, which I assume is Gilead spending some of that $15 billion on their own shares. Now, as we enter the buyback blackout ahead of earnings, it will be interesting to see if the stock drifts down. I expect it will.
The Credit-Suisse projections of Feb 6 (which resulted in their downgrade) are a lot less optimistic. They project worldwide HepC revenue as having peaked in 2014 @ $12.40 billion, and declining to $12.075 billion in 2015, thence to $11.74 billion in 2016 and $11.125 billion in 2017. I also subscribe to Morningstar and find their outlook is generally longterm and sensible. I don't think that the HepC issue is that important anymore. The major runup on Harvoni took place last year - those who are anticipating a major rally on Harvoni profits are late to the party. Likewise, I think that those who were shorting it on the news of more aggressive discounting of Sovaldi/Harvoni, got their drop in the wake of the C-S downgrade which briefly took it down to the low 90's. The company has been aggressively buying stock to hold the 100 level, and talk is now turning increasingly to
the potential value of their pipeline.
Yes, if this were to get bought out at, say, $120 a share in cash that would be a terrible thing. I live in California, which, for capital gains taxes, is one of the highest taxed places in the US (are NYC and Connecticut higher?) and, even for the short tem holdings, I would still get to keep about half of those additional gains. This will drive me to the poor house ... in a very nice car.
Every time Medivation jumps, this poor devil smacks himself in the forehead for holding Dendreon all the way down. This creates a short circuit in his brain which causes him to spout this nonsense.
I think that it will take something new to reignite real enthusiasm: The possibility of a major new drug, an opportunistic acquisition, etc.
Some of my early stage biotech stocks are down almost 10% today. At this point, the IBB is down 3.75%. GILD's relatively good performance supports my contention that it is now seen as a value stock rather than a growth stock. (It's behaving a lot more like JNJ than REGN.)
My congratulations for winning the "thumbs down" trophy. Only in my most contrarian phase could I even have dreamed of garnering 79. (The Smithfield Farms pop-up ad on the ISIS site only got 68.) By the way, the whole tired ABBV vs GILD debate is over. Merck and Boehringer-Ingelheim are much more formidable competitors. And the question is not whether ABBV will be a factor (they won't) but whether GILD can find something worthwhile to do with all thatcash.
However, all the relevant sources show that the short interest is small and not growing. In fact, the short interest, far from being "through the roof" is a about half what it was last year at this time.
Chuckcap, you're very right. It's sometimes difficult to explain to small children, but you can have the hamburger OR the hotdog. You can have the hamburger AND the hotdog.
You are short this stock and you just had your dream scenario: CNBC opens with the news about the adverse cardiovascular events and plays it hard. And you didn't cover. There are some here who are still waiting for the big Harvoni runup, not realizing that it already happened. You are waiting for the big drop on the big increase in discounting, not realizing that it already happened. The Credit-Suisse downgrade laid out the whole thing and the stock dropped almost 10 points. The stock will now trade on the basis of very healthy cashflow and a modest dividend, with the upside of whatever is in their pipeline.
I still think that when you buy BRK you are betting on the mystique of Warren: His ability to pick undervalued companies to acquire (which is a lot easier when you're looking for small companies than when you are required to acquire giant companies) and his ability to parlay his name into deals with Goldman and others that no one else could possibly get. I think he's a great American character and an exemplary human being. However, when he recently announced that he had prostate cancer and was undergoing proton beam therapy, I decided that he was fallible. Hint: You're 83 years old. You're going to die of something else long before you die of prostate cancer. In fact, you'll probably die of proton beam therapy.
Looks like Gilead just spent another $400 million of that war chest.
According to a recent post, you are 32 years old and have just raised your position in GILD to 350 shares. Which you were contemplating selling last Thursday but now have decided that you will never sell. But from your wealth of experience and depth of conviction, you are now lecturing me. By the way, was there something about Buffett's succession plan that made you uneasy Thursday? Did 91-year-old Charlie Munger fall asleep at a board meeting? Or did Howard fall off the combine?
Okay, you and Carolyn foolishly didn't cover your short in the low 99's, and now you're trying to convince yourself that you did the right thing. When I'm short a stock and an unexpected piece of bad news (therefore good news) pops up, I always cover at least half.
GILD isn't like the other major biotech components of the IBB. This is one of those unusual days when pie is worth more than pie-in-the-sky. Besides, the company is buying back shares... apparently around 100.50 today.
Last Thursday you posted that you were contemplating selling everything. Today you are pledging undying fealty to these 2 stocks. Did you read something in the annual report that we should know about?
Why don't you jump on whatever the #1 and #2 companies are in terms of market cap and ride them to zero? By the way, if you have a clue as to the identity of Buffett's successor, you have the journalism scoop of the year.