Yes, I'm the dummy who sold my remaining shares yesterday @ 96+ and tried to warn the longs of the bear raid which was coming today, whatever the earnings numbers. I'm not short, but if it goes near or below today's lows, I will be slightly long. As for your 90 close, that is a fantasy.
The reason why this is not really bouncing, I believe, is that the shortsellers are still selling and will drive it down again toward the close. A good principle, I believe, is to put in a spread of buy orders where the longs have their stops, since they will be trying to take those out.
This is a concerted bear raid. (I was reviled yesterday for warning about this.) If it is true to form, they should drive it lower again toward the close. And take it down a bit more at the open Monday. If you believe in the company's prospecs - which I do - a fairly riskfree move is to put in buy orders near and below today's low.
I don't feel the least bit ignored. In fact, since I have apparently elicited one of your two posts during the last three months, I feel that you are shining your tiny spotlight on me and am flattered. You miss my point on short ratios, though. An earnings beat generally moves the stock dramatically if there is a substantial short position in place. If there had been a larger short position in GILD, it would have gone straight to 80 on earnings. GILD, incidentally, also had some fairly lofty price targets (with the exception of the Goldman-Sachs analyst). As for INCY, I own a much reduced position in it, having sold most of my shares @ 63. I frankly had forgotten that they reported earnings today. In fact, GILD and MDVN are the last biotechs I have substantial positions in. I will own some PCYC at the end of the day tomorrow, whether it goes up or down. But I'm not afraid of missing the rocketship to 225, Wedbush notwithstanding.
My justification for knife catching: If they diverted more of their production to their lease fleet rather than to filling the order backlog, I assume there is a lot more profit in leasing railcars these days than in selling them.
Well, I overanalyzed the earnings day selloff on GILD, interpreting it as large players shorting to create a better entry point,which worked out very well for me. And if the earnings tomorrow are less than astounding and I see small lots trading higher in the premarket, I will be shorting into any rally. But let me ask the longs here this: What would you consider "good" earnings? 20 cents? 40 cents? 80 cents? A dollar? And which of those numbers would cause you to quickly add more shares? I'd guess that no one has the vaguest notion as to what constitutes "good" earnings and few longs have any intention of adding more shares tomorrow. Therein lies the danger.
You make the assumption that BB's portfolio is the same as it was year-end. (Since that is the last 13f we can see.) I think you'll find that when the next 13f comes out in a couple of weeks, BB will have lightened up on a lot of the more volatile Biotechs and rolled over into big pharma. After all, their portfolio appreciated by 103% in 2013. Which suggests that they're not dumb enough to stand there like deer in the headlights.
Watch CNBC tomorrow morning before the maket opens. If you see no trading or large orders trading higher, I would interpret that as a good sign. However, if you see 100 share lots trading above today's close by a buck or a buck and a quarter, I would interpret that as a headfake and prepare to exit in the first 5 - 10 minutes.
The price you bought a stock at is irrelevant. I think this stock was shorted yesterday and will be shorted toward the close today. I'm guessing that whatever the earnings are, the stock will open higher in the premarket tomorrow and rally during the first 10-15 minutes, then get attacked by the shorts. If it stablizes, I will buy some shares on Monday. Good luck to all.
I'd consider taking some off the table today, sdt. I have exited my last positions, since I think the downside inherent in tomorrow's earnings outweighs the upside.
Specifically, the combination of a small embedded short position and a lot of hopeful but jumpy retail longs makes this vulnerable to a short attack. It was interesting that the short raiders were able to knock down GILD, even in the face of spectacular earnings.
In retrospect, any of the big banks or institutions could have stepped in Wednesday and punished the bear raiders. But they sat on the sidelines, like king jackals letting the underjackals do their work for them. Meanwhile, the hapless retail investors were dumping shares, or, worse yet, buying puts which are now worthless. There is no amount of cynicism which is adequate for this market.
"blowupaway" is another instabull, offering dubious information about a "Schwab article". Schwab doesn't have in-house analysis or publish articles on individual stocks. They disseminate Credit-Suisse research and a few other basic ratings.
The sudden appearance here of encouraging messages from new ids is worrisome. Particularly "tene 1961" who was posting virtually identical messages on the GILD board ahead of Wednesday's earnings report and the ensuing bear raid. The note made of the small short position in PCYC is interesting, since it was the combination of a small short position and a large number of hopeful retail longs which made the raid on GILD possible. GILD's earnings were phenomenal, and yet they got away with it relatively unscathed. Any earnings beat from PCYC will be more modest. I smell a rat.
Massive after hours trades would obviously move the stock price massively. What you are seeing are trades made outside the public markets - in the so-called "black pools" - which are reported after hours.
If this falls back, it will only be momentarily, I think. Nevertheless, it makes sense here to put in some trailing buy orders just in case they dunk it at the open.
Nah, the only real shorts are the gullible retail speculators who bought the May puts last week, thinking that "They must know something." On the 70, 75, and 77.50 puts alone, they're down about $2.5 million today. In reality, of course,all of these puts will expire worthless and about another $15 million will go into the pockets of those folks who sold them.
At this point, watching the relentless runup, can anyone doubt the reality of my paranoid scenario?
PS According to my calculations, the sellers of those puts have made $1.7 million today on the drop of those May 70's, 75's, and 77.50's alone. Obviously, those puts are all really worthless now and will be below the horizon upon expiration.