You can't be so out of touch as to not know that the wave of mortgage applications last year was largely for refi's. I have the feeling that if you and prime had been at Sutter's Mill in 1848, the conversation would have been something like ...
Sage: "Boy those gold nuggets are real lumpy."
Prime: "And they're going to be real heavy to carry, too."
PS If you really are short this stock -- rather than just hanging out here -- your failure to cover when the stock had made a clear bottom at 34 is puzzling.
My portfolios seem to be up 8.5% ytd. Since this includes a substantial amount of cash, I'd estimate that the return on my stock portfolio is around 10%. Once again, your sympathy is appreciated but misplaced.
I don't know what forest you're seeing, but since your posts prophesizing financial doom seem to stretch into the distant past, I have to point out that the S&P has more than tripled over the past 6 years. (A costly oversight on your part, I suspect.) As for the particular tree I am watching here, it seems to be looking very healthy today.
Let's try this again: They spent $1.6 billion in February to acquire Shapell. (The deal was made in 2013 but not consummated until 2014.) They announced at the same time that they would sell off about $500 million of these assets. Whether they have yet done so or not should become clearer in the conference call. The Shapell deal was essentially a large bet on the continuing recovery of the California real estate market, which has turned out to be a very canny move. Of course, if Sage was right and they really had frittered away $440 million in cash to earn an extra $80 million, the stock would probably not be rallying. As for my supposed dim wittedness, I have to point out that I bought 2,000 more shares this morning at 35.04 and 35.12 this morning. I expect this to close at 36.50,and as we start getting upgrades, to move toward 40 over the next months.
The tendency to linger around 82.50 on a day when the IBB is weak indicates to me that this will now begin to trade between 82.50 and 85. (I still believe that this will close around 85 on June options expiration.)
Like most of the naysayers on here, the only thing youwere loaded up on was DNDN.
Sage, you have to learn to pay attention. In february, Toll purchased Shapell for $1.6 billion if I recall, which added 5,200 lots - mostly in coastal California- to their inventory. They announced at the time that they intended to sell off about $500 million worth of Shapell's assets.
A welcome note of realism. The assumption that the Marketing Director resigned because of a weak launch also seems hasty. There are all kinds of reasons why someone might resign or be forced out.
Tuesday: "Fungus threatens kohlrabi crop."
Wednesday: "Western Union lays off last bike messenger."
Thursday: "Michigan woman mauled by bear."
Friday: "Oakum picking industry in decline."
Saturday: "Camp Wahniwacook ravaged by outbreak of sniffles."
I'm not offering an analysis of the economy in general or even the housing market. I'm just betting that TOL's stock price will move higher from here. As for myopia, i think you were the one who was posting about the number of homes on your street which had become rentals, etc.
On Feb 25'th, GILD, like every other biotech, peaked. It made a new high of 84.88. The consensus earnings estimate at that time for 2014 was $3.77. Since then, given the huge success of Sovaldi, 2014 consensus earnings have moved up to $6.19. And the stock is at 81. Yet some here see the recent price recovery as a "huge runup". As an exercise, knock the price down 1/7 from its February peak -- that's about the hit that REGN, CELG, and AMGN have taken to date. (All of these, by the way, are equally vulnerable to the "overpriced drug" accusation.) That would bring our share price down to 72.75. Now add on 64% to adjust for the 64% increase in projected 2014 earnings. This takes us to $129.21. The fact is that the present share price does not even begin to reflect the huge uptrend in this company's prospects.
PS Waxman recently did ask Chairman Upton to initiate a formal inquiry into the naming of the Washington Redskins and its possibly racist implications - this is obviously a more pressing issue than drug prices.
As I was saying when I interrupted myself, when next we hear from Henry Waxman, he will be a highly paid lobbyist for the healthcare industry. It was only after he had announced his retirement that he and two other Democrats on his committee (one of them his designated successor as senior minority member) authored the letter questioning the pricing of Sovaldi. This is a wonderful example of what the French would call "l'espirit de l'escallier" - the thing you think of saying too late, as you're leaving the party and going down the stairs. There was no subpoena, no request for a formal inquiry, ...just an empty gesture trying to establish his bona fides as a friend of the consumer. When a single one of the 30 Republican members of his committee - or for that matter, more than 2 of 22 of his fellow Democratic committee members - actually says something about drug prices, I will start to worry.
First of all, the idea that those 16,000 projected H-P jobs being cut are $150,000 a year professionals being put on the street is silly. The fact is that unemployment in Silicon Valley is only 5.4% and that housing prices there have skyrocketed. At the same time, you point out that high-tech professionals are so scarce that Apple, Google, and Facebook have apparently colluded to discourage competitive recruiting and hold down their wages. The central thrust of Silicon Valley's current political organizing, by the way, is to persuade Congress to issue more H-1B visas to bring in foreign engineers and scientists. The fact is that there is a huge scarcity of these skills here since getting science and engineering degrees involves actual work. But your meanderings are again leading me far afield. I once again pose the question: Are you sure enough of your glum view to add to your short position on Toll ahead of Wednesday's earnings?
For a brief moment there, your mind actually meandered into relevance when you questioned TOL's stock price. (which I gather you think is overvalued by a factorof 3 or 4). Now you seem to have lost the thread again.
Interesting discussion. Without being as well versed in the details as walczakm8, I believe that despite all the rumblings, ibrutinib will be the standard of treatment for CLL.
Here, I think you will find that the game is to trade it down to 81 and sell the 80 puts to the pessimists, then push it back to 82.5 and sell the 85 calls to the optimists. Nevertheless, I expect that we will close just under 85 at expiration.
Note that Toll's share price is up 3% over the past two sessions. By the way, how many of Toll's homes do you suppose are sold to first time buyers? Speaking of condos, I note that at Toll's condo project in Brooklyn Bridge Park, which is just in the framing stage, 40 of 108 units have been sold in the first 10 weeks after sales were initiated. During that 10 weeks, Toll has raised prices 6 times. The average price per square foot has been $1,800. Which is surprising in that I understand Sears is closing one of its Brooklyn stores.