I ventured into IRWD some time ago, and then lost interest until recently. I confess that I was unaware of the number of alliances they have for marketing Linzess. However, it seems to me that prescription growth is robust and patient reviews seem much more favorable than those for Amitiza, from which they seem to be rapidly taking share. Credit-Suisse projects them to turn profitable in 2016, but obviously if much of the SGA expense could be eliminated via an acquisition, this could happen much sooner.
Everyone with a brain in his head knew that the expiration of options would hold this at 107 today. Even in the midst of the general rout yesterday, this was obvious to anyone paying attention. It's equally obvious that this will advance to 110 next month and 120 in November.
What would be even funnier, for example, would be if some self-appointed seer actually downgraded this stock on August 13 when it was selling at 5.65 ... a price it has never seen since that day.
Also your reiterated "conviction buy" of XXII (apparently your top holding) on the 18'th @ 3.07. Not quite one week later, it seems to have fallen to 2.58.
I'm still following your Monday strong buy upgrade to your "inner circle" of NETE @ 3.25. Do you think it will hold 2.50 today?
Looking through the portfolio you tweeted recently, I'd characterize your strategy as bottomfeeding for junk. I note that on Monday morning, you alerted your "inner circle" that you were initiating NETE as a "strong buy". You reiterated this on Tuesday. Over that time, it has dropped from 3.25 to 2.54. I would rather be in Dante's inner circle than in yours.
Just to be clear: You started USAT at a "Strong Buy" at the open on Monday, when it was selling for 2.02. Yesterday, they reported disappointing earnings and the stock dropped to 1.83, where it's still sitting. That's a 9.4% drop in one day. Got any more like this?
On that occasion, they lowered their price target on ITMN to $49 ...also on "valuation". Since Goldman was one of the banks advising ITMN on the sale, many took this as an indication that the buyout offer would be around 50 and the stock, which had been advancing, actually fell back for a couple of sessions. Ten days later, Roche offered $74 a share for ITMN. In the future, I'm going to buy any biotech Goldman downgrades on "valuation".
This is psychologically very good for the stock price. When Ron Popeil was king of the Vegamatic demo salesmen, he always placed a couple of shills in back waving fistfulls of money desperately trying to buy one of these marvelous devices, but to no avail. Before they could get their Vegamatics, he launched into his next spiel, leaving them frustrated and begging. Shorts must know how this feels.
Make that "put" contracts. I think he was committed to buy 2,000 shares if it went under 5.
Well, even though the longs have Merrill, JPM, and Deutsche Bank on their side now, don't be intimidated. You have congo and his vast financial resources. The last position I recall him mentioning was a couple of 5 pit contracts.
Are you asking for protection as a doctor, a dentist, or an old lady? An orphan? Why not an orphaned old lady dentist, the favorite prey of investment bankers?
They've already sold a lot of stock at a good price ...by the simple expedient of taking out the stops of the shorts.
The secondary will not be "market", whatever that means. The underwriters will announce the offering price beforehand. And yes, I can read ... and add. They had $85 million in the bank, $24 million in debt, and were burning through $100 million a year. Which is why I agreed with Congo that they had to do a secondary. I suggested, however, that rather than $4.50, with the right news they could do it at $8.50. Now I think $10.50 is more like it. The $200 million cash from the secondary means they have two more years
The underwriters will set the price and commit to hold it there. Which means that for the near future, the stock is not going up or down.
Well, it's about a 10.4% dilution. If you just knocked 10.4% off today's closing price, you'd get 10.05. But it looks like they're betting on 10.5. We now have a smaller piece of a company which has more cash in the bank.