Incidentally, IRWD always seems to move in .25 increments. It has recovered to 10.50 at the moment and the only question in my mind is whether it ends they day there or at 10.75. I'm guessing the latter.
No, I think that many of you who have been duped by the latest SGYP rope-a-dope are doubling down on your bets by shorting IRWD - over 80% of trades yesterday were short and this has been continuing today. (Incidentally, SGYP was heavily shorted over the previous two sessions.) This seems to assume that with the acceptance of the NDA for plecanatide, the million+ people who have been taking Linzess have now decided that they can wait until 2017 for their next bowel movement. I have been adding IRWD at 10.39-40 this morning, because I think the SGYP sheep are going to get trapped in that short.
And the shorting has obviously continuing today. The geniuses who bought into the Synergy pump-and-dump have obviously deduced that with plecanatide's NDA having been accepted, the millions of people who have been taking Linzess have decided they can wait until 2017 to have their next bowel movement. I am adding here at 10.39.
When a stock trades 5x its normal volume on a nonevent (FDA accepts their New Drug Application) and never moves back to the original high recorded minutes after the open, you know that it was being shorted/sold all day. The red herring about AGN buying SGYP is so absurd that even Cramer scoffs at it. The fact is that this company will be flat broke well before the PDUFA date. And the only thing which can rescue them is a partnership with a major international drug company which includes a major upfront cash infusion. Absent that, their only alternative is to float a secondary into this faint euphoria.
Why would you do anything other than buy as much SGYP as possible? As everyone here knows, there are buyout offers flooding in for this gem. Why would anyone sell this for under 10, since that seems to be the lowest price price under consideration. But if you're asking me to predict tomorrow's trading, I think that, in the absence of news or phony rumors, it will be moved up slightly and flatlined there on moderate volume. Then it will be walked down gently and end up right about where it closed today. Just a guess.
I think this will kick around here for a bit. At the moment, if this goes up, the partisans think "They must know something!" and jump in. However, when it drifts down again, they don't make the contrary assumption. My own view is that the noteholders are sitting on 35 million shares which they don't want, and have bought a put to enable their escape. This put is being expertly constructed by a third party. I note the strong short volume during Friday's rally. Until the NDA is accepted or a CRL issued, there is no real news to move this.
I'm MAD, I tell you! MAD! MAD! As in crazy. Like a fox. I have only one id. I have had it for about 20 years. Not like so many of the freshly minted ones here, created to escape the opprobrium attached to their earlier posts. As for "wrong in the first place", I arrived here in response to posts on the IRWD board from SGYP partisans, predicting the demise of Linzess at the hands of SGYP. At the time, IRWD was at 10.46 and SGYP was at 9.50.
That big 2% rally certainly suggests a major buyout bid is in the offing. Probably in the range of 15-16, wouldn't you guess?
There goes 42,879 shares @ 3.33, which is only significant in that it tells you the price they were unloading it at as it wagged up and down for most of the day.
If they can't bounce this up to 3.38 toward the close, it looks grim. Watch for the large consolidated trade at 3.32 crossing just after the bell.
Nah. They've already invested close to a billion in Linzess and will start to see the return on that investment later this year. The "superior" drug, you must be aware, has of yet not even had it's NDA accepted. You're not thinking strategically,but, like so many here, thinking wistfully.
Perhaps it did not occur to Bret that if AGN were to make an acquisition in this space, it might make more sense to acquire the other half of IRWD which they do not own. In much the same way that JNJ bought the half of PCYC they didn't own. Just a crazy thought.
And you call yourself "fearless"?
Specifically, what I said yesterday was "Here's a thought for tomorrow. The folks who are desperate to unload this will probably spike it at the open. I'd sell into this because I expect it to be cheaper by the end of the day."
I told you yesterday at the end of the thread where you posted that it was INCREDIBLE that I was still offering free advice. I agreed that I should be charging for my advice and offered the opinion that they would spike it at the open today and that this spike should be sold into, since you would be able to buy it back cheaper by the end of the day. I assume that you took this advice. if I were going to buy this back, I would wait until about 20 minutes before the close. You're welcome.
Another great buyout scam was Inhibitex, another fine Cerrone company. It was sold to Bristol-Myers for $2.5 billion on the basis of impressive phaseIi results. However in the phase III trials it turned out to kill people (okay, killed one patient, sent 6 to the hospital). Within 6 months, B-My had written off their investment. And this was the "successful" Cerrone company. Is it any wonder that the bidders are not lining up for SGYP?
Anyway, gia is right: It's INCREDIBLE that I dispense my valuable advice for free. I should be charging for it. Here's a thought for tomorrow: The folks who are desperate to unload this will probably spike it at the open. I'd sell into this because I expect it to be cheaper by the end of the day.