As you probably know, my theme here has not been anti-GILD. When I covered my short Friday (I frankly don't think I made any money on it, and may have lost some.) I breathed a sigh of relief. It's dangerous being short these stocks since you never know when they're going to issue a press release which will make the price jump 20 points. My main theme has been that it's irrational to have most of your assets tied up in this stock -- or in any one stock. Or any one segment of the market for that matter. My secondary theme has been that the developments at the last earnings report - shrinking margins, major buybacks, and the new dividend - had changed this from a growth stock to a value stock and it would have to find new sponsorship, probably at a lower price level.
The myth is that ARN-509 is a newer drug than Xtandi. It's actually an older drug which got left behind when MDVN bought the rights to what became Xtandi. There is absolutely no evidence that it is superior to Xtandi. Xtandi is quickly replacing Zytiga, particularly in the pre-chemo setting. And there is evidence that Xtandi is superior to Zytiga in terms of radiographic progession-free survival. Since the use of one drug often reduces the effectiveness of the other if it's used in salvage therapy, the first drug used has a marked advantage. And the fact that it can be administered without prednisone, as sovaldinvestor points out, gives Xtandi an advantage here. There is growing evidence that Xtandi is effective in certain types of triple negative breast cancer, a large unmet need.
Let's make this simple: If you pull up the five day chart on GILD and then use the "compare" feature to pull up the IBB, you'll see that the two have been trading in perfect synch. Except for a spike on Thursday when PCYC drove the IBB up sharply at the open and GILD had a smaller knock-on bump. The only thing unusual going on is a lack of trading volume in the whole category, and particularly in GILD.
HZNP is not on my radar. But, having checked out their numbers, I'm intrigued: Rapidly growing revenues, and turning their first profit last quarter. I also like companies that treat conditions like constipation (IRWD) and knee pain. Not everyone can cure cancer. Interestingly, there is a large short position in the stock ... almost 20% of the float. This may be a characteristic of Irish-based companies. (Is there something in Irish tax law which encourages you to hedge your stock options?) I did very well recently on FLTX, another Dublin-based company (fleet management software via the cloud) which had almost 30% of their float short, and moved strongly on good earnings. I like betting on companies with large short positions...these are shares which have to be bought back eventually. So thanks for pointing out HZNP. Who says you don't learn anything from these boards?
I still don't want to recharge my watch every night. ("Note to self: 1. Bring in cat. 2. Take out dentures and rinse. 3. Recharge watch.")
I would say that GILD is held up by the retail investors' fixation on the low forward P/E. But the low volume shows that the stock is still under cautious distribution..
Raleigh, when you see (as Thursday) a million shares crossing at the close without any effect on the share price, you know that those shares were traded internally (in the "dark pools") earlier.
I think WFC is the soundest of the financials and has behaved the best. (also pays a decent dividend) BAC, however, because it is so beaten down and shorted, had a better bounce today. Medivation is a strong parallel to PCYC (the stock which I sold out of too early).. It has a profitable drug from which it currently shares the revenues with a major pharma. (PCYC was partnered with JNJ's Jannsen, MDVN has a similar relationship with Astellas.) Xtandi revenues are growing robustly - even more robustly than PCY's ibrutinib, actually. And there is the strong possibility that the drug's androgen-blocking characteristics will be valuable in triple negative breast cancer and other cancers. I think it may get bought soon, while money is still cheap.
Speedrunner gave an informative reply; and I tried to do my best to answer your question objectively with real information. For which we got zilch. (Other than your thanks to speedrunner.) Cosa posts "Stick bugs!" and gets two thumbs up.
If you buy the premise of today's selloff - the Fed will raise interest rates sooner than expected - I think today would have been a better day to buy the financials. If you're obsessed with pharmas, the trend would suggest that today was a better day to buy MDVN.
Fat fingers today: "Meerch" for Merck, "Lecentis" for Lucentis, "Phased III" for Phase III, etc. And I haven't even started drinking yet.
Biosimilars are a problem for the pricing structure of the whole industry. The argument is often made that the list price for these drugs isn't that much below the drugs they replace; but remember that ABBV's list price for ViekeiraPak (sp?) was supposed to be close to the price of Harvoni. Norway's health service just announced that they were switching to a biosimilar at a discount of 69% over one major drug (I forget which one.) In addition to Sandoz's biosimilar for Neupogen, Amgen has another problem: Coherus is in Phased III for a biosimilar for Enbrel. Both CHRS and EPRS are developing biosimilars for ABBV's Humira. (Which, of course, has implications for CELG's rising star, Otezla.) PFNX has been commissioned by Hospira (now owned by Pfizer) to develop a biosimilar to Lecentis/Eylea. Regardless of what the FDA does, Europe is rapidly adopting biosimilars. (The only thing worse than getting paid in Euros - not getting paid at all.) At the moment, I'd say that far more than biosimilars, the threat to GILD's HepC franchise is from forthcoming combo drugs from Meerch and Boehringer-Ingelheim.
Raleigh, you are arguing that GILD's performance today was par for the course. But remember that the premise here is that this is a radically undervalued stock about to grow into its p/e. In which case one would expect it to do better than a close a dime above its low. The volume is what would really concern me. Even with the aid of the million or so shares traded in the dark pools today, GILD did about 50% of its normal volume. The IBB did more than its normal volume - since GILD is about 8% of the IBB, that in itself should have driven volume up a bit. CELG, the other laggard among the IBB major components, traded about 70% of its normal volume. AMGN traded 25% above normal volume. VRTX 95% of normal. JNJ 100% of normal. REGN 80% of normal. VRTX 95% of normal. And then there were the stocks that I think showed up relatively well today: MDVN at 95% of normal, CLDX at 90%, and INCY at more than 100%. These look to me like they were being bought on the market's weakness. Other than the shares being exchanged behind the scenes, I see no signs of buying in GILD. In fact, I'll bet I'm one of the few here who bought shares today, which I did to cover my short and to try to catch a bounce ... which didn't happen.
Meanwhile, CLMT is almost 10 points above its low. The institutions stuck with large positions in the major oils will continue to seesaw them down, I think, periodically taking out the shorts. This was definitely the best play in the oil patch.
I covered my short and went long at just above 102, certain that they would hold it there and possibly push it up to 102.50, which looked sticky earlier.. Now we see by the large blocks appearing after hours that they had it priced at 101.81. I feel lucky to have sold at 101.86. Among the major biopharms in the IBB, only CELG looked equally dead. Even AMGN, which should have been the most heavily clobbered since the FDA approved the biosimilar for Neupogen (expected, but probably not this soon) caught a bounce at the close. Meanwhile, MDVN barely budged all day, and INCY caught a good bounce and held it. Which suggests that what you want to own in the sector are the acquisition targets.
I think there 9 or 10 biosimilars being marketed currently in Europe. In the interest of controlling healthcare costs, I think we will follow their lead.
IBB down sharply and this is rallying. Or maybe the scripts were very strong.