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Puma Biotechnology, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 692 posts  |  Last Activity: 33 minutes ago Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    dumped it.

    by nadsmis Dec 28, 2015 1:38 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Dec 28, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    Funny that your only other appearance here was the rather alarmist "CLMT crashing!!!!" when it made its low on Dec. 17'th. You were so full of dire predictions that one would never have suspected that you were long ... or that you would wait over a week before unloading your shares.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Jan 26, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    Published yesterday, and entitled "How the Oil Bust Wiped Out One North Dakota Oil Refiner's Profit". Actually, it might have referred to "theoretical profit", since it focuses on the huge spread between the price of N.D. crude and the price of N.D. diesel in the fall of 2014: $100/bbl. And contrasts it to the relatively paltry spread of $16/bbl currently. Of course, the refinery wasn't operational in the fall of 2014, which might explain part of this: A lot of diesel demand, a lot of oil, no local diesel refinery = huge theoretical spread. Lower diesel demand, a lot of oil, local diesel refinery = much smaller actual spread. The article focuses on Calumet's partner in this venture, MDU Resources, a fairly diversified utility/energy producer/pipeline company. But it quotes a Calumet spokeperson, Noel Ryan, that they expect the refinery to be "competitively advantaged in the long-term".

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Jan 12, 2016 5:38 PM Flag

    Then tried to buy another 2,000 @ 12.37 seconds later - the order wouldn't fill. I figured that the 25 cent special dividend brought the effective price down to 12.10. And I don't believe that retail investors were selling ah today. I think there were major short interests here who were surprised and now realize that if they don't cover by the ex-dividend date, they're going to have to pay us a quarter a share on top of the regular dividend. Watch for them to paint the tape lower in the premarket. Everything that happens outside of regular trading hours is misinformation. Everything that happens in the first two hours of trading is misinformation. Watching for this to move slowly in the afternoon.

  • Bloomberg has a piece today on slumping ND crude oil prices -which, aside from its effect on inventory valuations, would seem to be good for Calumet. The headline focuses on the irony of some high-sulfur ND crude being essentially given away free. This is a relatively small percentage of ND crude, but the Koch Bros. Flint Hills Refinery will take it from you for 50 cents a barrel. The light sweet crude from western ND obviously goes for a lot more than this, but has been priced well below WTI ... looking at the recent Calumet presentation, it seems that the price paid in the third quarter was around $18/bbl. I also note that in their recent report , the profit per bbl for specialty products in the third quarter surged to $10.30/bbl from $3.81/bbl in the corresponding 2014 quarter. Given the continued drop in crude prices, it would seem logical that this profit margin for specialty products would continue to grow.

  • RBC resumes coverage with an "outperform" rating and a price target of 32. DA Davidson initiates coverage with a "buy" rating and price target of 34.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Jan 13, 2016 1:17 PM Flag

    I note that on 11/25/13, with the stock at around 25, Stifel rated this a "Buy". Today, over 2 years later, with the stock having lost over 70% of its value, they told us to stop buying it. The JPM downgrade today was similarly timely.

  • Reply to

    Cramer said to lighten up on clmt

    by greatpick1232002 Dec 19, 2015 6:35 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Dec 19, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    I saw that Lightning Round segment. Cramer looked baffled and when it punched Calumet up on his monitor, he might have thought he was seeing an overleveraged baking powder company. Advising the caller to "take some off the table" after the sector had bottomed and,on a day when the market was plummeting, the stock had rallied strongly, was typical Cramer: a day late and a dollar short.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Dec 16, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    The present weakness, I think, has nothing to do with oil prices, but rather with investor nervousness about anything tainted with the word "high yield". Which is ironic, because the lower the price goes, the higher the yield and therefore the higher the level of nervousness. I sold some earlier and will now buy it back.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 27, 2016 8:46 PM Flag

    You seem to be making a moral distinction between the longs ("dedicated") and the shorts ("degenerates", "termites", etc.), which is like making a moral distinction between hot and cold. If there were enough people who wanted to own this stock, they would quickly drive the shorts (who are the MM's) into retreat. The relatively low level of options action demonstrates that the true believers are a relatively small group. When I was despised on the ARNA board, they would often have 20,000 or more out-of-the-money call options a couple of days before expiration.
    If you think that the "degenerates" (myself and 2 others, it seems) destroyed the board by offering a contrary opinion, you are giving us too much credit.
    You are also indulging in visualization, which is dangerous. You visualize the stock rising to some level where the profits will buy you a vacation home, a house in Big Sur, a BW Z28 etc. Which gives you a little tingle - what the French would call a "frisson". But it's not real. For those who have a major chunk of their capital in this, it might be more realistic to visualize it going to 3.50 .. or 3.20.
    PS If you really plan on buying a vacation home with your profits, you have WAY too much invested in this stock.

  • Reply to

    SEC 8-K Form

    by kwantung07 Jan 22, 2016 2:13 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 22, 2016 3:29 PM Flag

    Do you really believe that Jacobs would accept a buyout offer which made no financial provision for him and that at this point he would be angling to preserver a tiny slice of his regular bonus?

  • Mentions that several pipeline LLP's have actually announced increases in distributions lately, citing SE and EPD as examples.

  • Reply to

    My recommendation for IRWD investors......

    by gadzillionman Jan 23, 2016 7:16 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 25, 2016 5:48 PM Flag

    You're getting ahead of yourself, Gadzillion. By about 4 years,.... if you're lucky.

  • Reply to

    dumped it.

    by nadsmis Dec 28, 2015 1:38 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Dec 29, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    My point was that this poster made his debut here on the day this hit its low, yelling "CLMT Crashing!!!" and announcing that the dividend was unsustainable, the management inept,etc Then, a week and a half later, after the stock has bottomed, he reappears to announce "Dumped it".. The only thing he may have dumped (let's hope not) was his short position.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Dec 31, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    1. That FDA approval is a slam dunk. To many of us, the trial numbers are less than impressive. Particularly the low level of efficacy vs placebo. (21% vs 10-12.8%). The only area of superiority vs Linzess, frequency of diarrhea, is belied by the correspondingly low level of diarrhea in the placebo arm (1.3% vs 5% for Linzess), which suggests that the criteria were different.
    2. That approval will result in rapid market share gain vs Linzess. Linzess is markedly superior to Amitiza (particularly in the much lower incidence of nausea), yet it took them 3 years to pass Amitiza in US market share. Those who have dropped Linzess because of diarrhea constitute a comparatively small target group. In fact, adherence is much higher among those prescribed Linzess than for any other prescription laxative.
    3. That success will bring big profits. Linzess is four years ahead of plecanatide, and has yet to make a profit. In fact, they have run up losses of $1.1 billion. And this is with major partners sharing much of the developmental and marketing costs.
    4. That a buyout is imminent. If so, this is a big dark secret, since the share price has dropped from 10 to 5.70 over the last 5 months.
    5. That SGYP's management is formidable. With the exception of one drug which flopped in trials after it was acquired, they haven't had a winner.
    6. That the stock has the backing of major institutions.. With the exception of Paulson, no one has taken a major stake in SGYP. Vanguard and Blackrock hold shares in their index funds. The NASDAQ website - often cited here - has institutional ownership at around 57%, a very low level. For IRWD, NASDAQ shows institutional ownership of around 110%. (The figure totals both long and short positions. Since the level of shorting on SGYP is roughly equivalent, this suggests that the level of long institutional ownership is lower than 57%.)
    7. That "trapped shorts" are waiting to cover, which will drive up the share price. Just silly.

  • Reply to

    BEAROFBLEEKER

    by italianex1 Jan 27, 2016 8:56 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 27, 2016 9:49 PM Flag

    First of all, we should never be afraid to take a loss. Even if you have no gains to offset it with, the government will let you deduct $3,000 of it against ordinary income in the current year and carry the rest forward.(As with most things in the tax code, this is a lot more beneficial for the high bracket taxpayer. But let's assume that you make some money on future investments -the loss here will essentially make those gains taxfree..) The MM's seem to have this zeroed out @ 4.02, which represents their best estimate of the pivot point. The IBB got clobbered today - there were actually a lot of biotechs which were down 8-10% - and there is still a lot of retail anticipation around the NDA. So, I would wait until this approached 4 and sell 1/4 of your position. Then, at the end of the day Friday, I would sell another 1/4. One of my maxims is "If you are worried about your position, sell half and worry half as much." Note that I haven't advised you to exit your position completely. Something good could happen. The MM's have made a lot of money here and they are not about to kill the goose which lays the golden eggs. On any subsequent pop, I would sell another 1/4. Now you will have a remaining 1/4 of your position ($3,250) at risk and can follow it without fear.
    Now I will give you some honest advice: Most investors do much better in the long run by buying the indices, since most funds underperform them. (So buy the Vanguard Total Market when blood is in the streets and sit on it.) If you need the excitement (which I do), it has been proven to my satisfaction that you should own 30 - 40 stocks in your portfolio, since by owning fewer you are taking too mush risk. More later. Good luck.

  • Like their stockholders, Synergy's 34 employees will be sitting around waiting for the phone to ring for the rest of the year. Hoping for a buyout offer or, if all goes well, FDA approval for CIC. They seem to have even put their IBS-C trials on hold.
    Ironwood's 464 employees will be a lot busier. They have had FDA approval for both CIC and IBS-C for almost 3 1/2 years. So, in addition to marketing Linzess here and in Europe, they'll be...
    1. Awaiting further Phase III trial results for the 72mg dose of linaclotide for pediatric use.
    2. Awaiting Phase III results for opiod induced constipation.
    3. Conducting trials for Linzess in nursing mothers, and two other studies which pave the way for the eventual removal of the black box warning.
    4. Awaiting Phase III results for the colonic release formulation.
    5. Conducting Phase II trials for IW-3718 for GERD (acid reflux).
    6. Having conducted successful Phase III trials, awaiting Astellas's filing for marketing approval in Japan.
    7. Having concluded successful Phase III trials, awaiting AstraZeneca's filling for marketing in China.
    8. Conducting Phase III trials for Linzess in capsule endoscopy prep.
    9. Conducting further trials on their new diagnostic tests to definitively diagnose IBS.
    10. Continuing research on IW 1973 for orphan GI diseases, including diabetic gastroparesis.
    11. Continuing research on IW 1701 for cardiovascular diseases.
    12. Continuing research on the application of IW 3718 for Duchenne's muscular dystrophy.
    Of course, they might also be waiting for the phone to ring.

  • Reply to

    Did someone say BUY OUT SOON?

    by stellarresults Nov 16, 2015 4:12 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Nov 16, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    a top knotch post.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Nov 17, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

    If you're going to post nonsense, why use a counterfeit of my id? Synergy is a little outside the value universe of Graham-Dodd. (as is Ironwood, for that matter) Even putting them in the same sentence is like putting Pluto on your local bus schedule. Synergy is predicted to lose $25m a quarter until such time that they can bring a drug to market. If everything goes according to the rosy projections here, this should take place in late 2017. Then they can start losing SERIOUS money. According to Yahoo!, they have 35 fulltime employees at the moment. Ironwood has 464. Interestingly, Ironwood has a number of major partners and is still losing about $100m a year, even as their sales burgeon. They are spending money on advertising and couponing heavily to build market share. The only bright spot is that if they were to be folded into an existing stable of GI drugs, they would instantly become quite profitable. As for Synergy: no product, no partner, no immediate prospects.

  • On Aug 3'rd, "stellarresults", posted here for the first time. A seemingly rational person, he wrote, "Funny, but all I know is the market is usually right and if Synergy is going up while ironwood is going down, well, that tells me everything I need to know." On that day, SGYP opened at 8.98 and IRWD opened at 10.44. Since then, SGYP has lost 32% of its value and IRWD is up 17%. But, exposed to the relentless nonsense of indansfan/brownsfan/itsahorserace/etc, this formerly rational individual has vanished into a dream world:
    Aug 18: "Looking to buy more before buyout announcement.. Bargain basement prices here around 7 and 8's."
    Aug 31: "tick,tick,tick .... anyday now"
    Sept 22: "$15/share soon"
    Yes, 8.98 to 6.10 in a little over three months. The market is usually right.

  • Reply to

    need advice

    by press447 Dec 8, 2015 8:43 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Dec 8, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Yes, even though this stock has lost half its value over the past three months, it is sure to double in value very soon. Or triple. At least. Normally, the absolute certainty of such huge appreciation would make a stock go up. But, in this case, the only people who are in on this secret are the people on this board. Anyway, the stock is being held down by the "manipulation" of "trapped shorts" - people who were short this stock at 3.50 and cannot exit until the stock drops back down there, which it will never do. And no, you should definitely not even consider selling this jewel until it reaches 7.50 again so that you can break even. You paid 7.50 for it, so you know it's worth 7.50. Or maybe 17.50. ( My answer is obviously insincere, just like your phony query, your first post ever under that id.)

PBYI
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