If you don't review and acknowledge your mistakes, you don't learn from them. One of my major mistakes last year was to see the biotech selloff coming and not really do anything about it other than to sell some things. I should have shorted a portfolio of biotechs - shorting any one is too potentially dangerous.
I would suggest that volume is low because the only folks buying this are those who are enticed by the MM's fast runups on low volume at the open. Or daytraders. Retail investors won't sell because they are convinced it's about to break through 105. But institutional investors won't buy because they are befuddled by the 180 degree turn from a growth company to a dividend-paying, stock buyback play. (As the company acknowledges, all the projected growth in per-share earnings over the next few years comes purely from the anticipated stock buybacks.) In the absence of a major new product announcement, this should go lower. Undoubtedly, they will push it up towards 105 again tomorrow - perhaps even above there. But next week we may see the lack of buying interest begin to be reflected in the stock price.
By my calculations, the increase in the price of PCYC today was worth a $1.29 increase in the price of IBB. PCYC is only 2.25% of the IBB. But it was enough to take GILD from 104.12 to 104.93 in minutes. Obviously, people bought the IBB to capture the gains of PCYC, which automatically meant that the IBB had to buy more of their top holdings: BIIB (9.67% of IBB), CELG (7.96%), and GILD (7.67%).
You can't sell half a million shares after hours without moving the price. This is just late reporting of a trade - or series of trades - which were transacted earlier in the "dark pools". Meanwhile, volume continues to dry up. Today's was the lowest since Christmas of 2013.
On December 19, Gilead announced that they were licensing a BTK inhibitor from ONO pharmaceuticals. I owned 1,000 shares of PCYC in my IRA at the time, and knowing that their key product, ibrutinib, was a BTK inhibitor, I figured this news would hurt the stock (Gilead's mystique is that strong.) So I sold out at 130, intending to buy it back when it stabilized. It quickly fell to 120. However, I forgot to buy it back. That sudden blip in GILD at 12:45 was the IBB surging on the news that PCYC is up for sale, which quickly took it up to 220. The Gilead mystique cost me $90,000.
Note that since I posted this on Feb. 12 (to a rousing 3 to 1 thumbs down): CHRS 27.82 - 32.36. EPRS 7 - 9.47. PFNX 12.16 - 13.85.
Well, someone just bet around $200,000 that this will close below 95 on March 20. And they did it in one big lump today. If I see that position continuing to build, I'd be suspicious.
Was being driven down by shorts all day. Now they've announcd an acquisition and produced Q4 adjusted non-GAAP earnings of .44 (GAAP of .32) vs consensus of .29. And the only shares being offered are at 43.37 - more than 5 bucks above the close.
Hit the "historical prices" tab and you'll see that you're mistaken, I think. The trading pattern for the past week has been the same: The MM's spike it on low volume at the open to convince the true believers that it's going to sail through 105, enticing them into buying the 105 calls. Then they let it come down a bit and unload shares while they hold it in place. Each day to a little less volume and enthusiasm.
Nonsense. They didn't rate the new F-150 because it was too new. Same for the GM Colorado. They rated the Dodge Ram and the Silverado "unreliable".
Gee, the last time I heard Greenspan this sure of anything was when, just before the financial crisis, he advised us all to take out an adjustable rate mortgage.
At the moment, VLO and TSO are both down 2% while CLMT is up 1.7%. I don't know whether the dropoff in the majors is due to the tiny move up in the price of WTI or has more to do with labor issues.
They give you what they're designed to give you: 2X the return of the NASDAQ Biotech Index (or the IBB). Wednesday will be the anniversary of the beginning on Feb 25 of last year's big biotech selloff. From that day until it bottomed on April 15, BIB went 108 to a low of 60.89 on April 15. From Feb 25, GILD went from 83.95 to a low of 63.50 on April 11. (BIB lost 43.8%, GILD lost 23.4%.) Obviously in the biotech resurgence since then BIB has done much better than GILD, rebounding from 60.89 to 159.26 (+ 161%) while GILD has recovered from 63.50 to 104.50 (+64.5%). If you think the biotech boom will continue, jump in.
If you believe, as I do, that Europe is on the mend, it's a great time to buy Ford. (Europe being the main drag on their earnings at the moment) Note that VGK, a Vanguard ETF which basically traces the FTSE, a broad index of European stocks, bottomed on Jan. 6 at 50.05. It closed today at 55.67. On Jan 6, Ford closed at 14.47. Today it closed at 16.38. Over that period, VGK is up 11.12%. Ford is up 13.2%.
In January they referred to unfinished electrical work at ND. Now that the shale boom is winding down, perhaps they'll have an easier time finding contractors. They projected that ND would be accretive to EBITDA in Q1 2015.
I don't understand options, although I sometimes watch them to try and make sense of the trading action in certain stocks. It always seems counterintuitive to be buying a stock for more than it's worth or selling it for less than it's worth. The options MM's, in my view, are little more than loan sharks, and you are paying them a hefty premium for the leverage which they provide.