My post re a possible inversion candidate was for FLTX, a fleet management software company. As for AVNR, I don't think that they'll grow into a big pharma company -- that's almost impossible nowadays, when any company with a promising drug gets bought out. GILD and AMGN are anomalies in that they have now grown too large to buy out. The hope with AVNR is that their pipeline of drug candidates shows sufficient promise to grow the stock price and that eventually they attract a bid well above whatever that stock price might happen to be at the time.
Note that at the time this trade was reported, the stock did not budge. It's obviously impossible to trade more than 1/4 of the daily volume at one moment without moving the price. Therefore, you can be sure that this trade occurred outside of the regular market, in the so-called "dark pools". All of this would tend to indicate that someone is accumulating stock near its recent highs.
The fact that you've been hanging around this particular corner for four years and have, by your own reckoning, reaped "200% gains", whatever that means, does not make you king, in spite of your somewhat grandiose title. If one had bought this stock four years ago @ 2.84, you would have roughly doubled your money to this point. If you had bought GILD at that same point, you would have multiplied you money 7X; if you'd bought CELG, you'd be up 4X; if you'd bought MDVN, you'd be up 20X; and if you'd bought PCYC, you'd be up 16X. In fact, if you'd bought dumb old BMY in August 2010, your investment would have gone from 22 then to 50 today. In case you accuse me of cherrypicking, note that IBB, one of the more widely traded pharma ETF's, has quadrupled over the past 4 years. And, most obvious of all, if you'd just bought the S&P 500 in August of 2010, you'd have more than doubled your money to this point. So having a "strong buy" on a stock which, even at its recent highs, has gone essentially nowhere, strikes me as dogged, to say the least. Now, when the stock finally looks to be breaking out, you look in your crystal ball and see doom. Incidentally, when and if a secondary offering occurs, you can be sure that the underwriters will give the stock a good hard boost upwards beforehand.
Hi,mrobinso I'm a Robinson on my mother's side...all Scotch Irish blacksmiths. RLYP is a relatively new position for me. My approach is to stick a toe in the water, and, when the position becomes profitable, to add shares. I actually added some shares today because it seemed to be selling off on low volume. I added at 25.83 and 25.55; had an order in at 25.50 which didn't fill. I think the stock caught my attention when it showed up in the 13f (quarterly portfolio disclosure) of Orbimed Advisors, a medically oriented hedge fun which I frequently steal ideas from. In their recently released second quarter 13f, they are still holding almost 10 million shares, their tenth largest position. While the stock had sold off a lot from its highs, it seemed to show support at around 22.50. The technology is unusual: a substance which you ingest which then binds with potassium and is excreted. This enables those being treated for heart failure to continue on the conventional therapy longer without the potassium buildup which threatens the kidneys. The phase III trial results looked impressive to me. The effect of dosing with their drug, Patiromer, were very durable. I also note that 5AM Partners, a venture capital group with a remarkable record of success in the pharma arena, are among the major backers. I also like the fact that, as witnessed by this quiescent board, it seems to be flying under the radar. And yes, ITMN was one of my major holdings. (Note: It is also one of Orbimed's larger positions at #11, right behind RLYP.) Good luck to you.
PS: I have a memory of being vaccinated by the military with this kind of device in the 70's. It was an air gun that shot the vaccine into your arm without a needle. If the contact between the gun and the skin wasn't perfect, there might be some bleeding. And they didn't clean the gun between injections. The VA now apparently acknowledges this technique as a source of some HepC infections and finally directed the military to stop using it in about 1999.
The US military isn't that dumb. Those vaccinations were given by an air injection gun. There was no needle involved.
Well, I'm glad that we've attracted a new sceptic, rather than the solitary phosteric/berkley/analyst/green Dendreonite who crawls out of the woodwork everytime we rally. Meanwhile, another new high.
Congo is undoubtedly right about the need for a secondary offering, barring some unforeseen injection of capital. They simply have too many irons in the fire for the amount of cash in the bank. However, this didnot deter me from entering in the 5.80 area and adding cautiously since then. Who says that with the right kind of positive news, we can't have a secondary @ 8?
I understood that "double blind" studies meant that no one knew the results ahead of time. I think the PR department is justdoing what PR departments are supposed to do.
Most of the older Hep C patients, I believe, contracted it from unscreened blood transfusions. Virtually all of the 10's of millions of Egyptians with the disease got it via contaminated vaccine which was supposed to protect them from schismatosis (sp?), or "river blindness". Hep C in Russia was spread through reused needles in hospitals. Which is to say, many Hep C sufferers are actually victims of modern medicine. Obviously, since it's a communicable disease, we're all potential victims, and there's a huge societal benefit in suppressing it. The question of how the carriers contracted it is therefore irrelevant.
Well, I have the same reservation. They have a lot of irons in the fire and will eventually need to float a secondary. Of course, with the right trial data, that secondary could be a lot higher than here. They do have a successful drug on the market for pseudobulbar affect, and this drug may also be useful in Alzheimer's agitation. I don't own GEVA; I looked at it some time ago and will look at it again.
I'm guessing that a large holder was selling into strength...they would sell you as many shares as you wanted today @ 120, but nothing below there. Perhaps Baker Brothers. In their second quarter 13f, they had actually added 853,000 shares for a total of 9.59 million, but historically, they don't try to squeeze the last few bucks out of a stock and lighten up on successful positions. Sometimes, as in the case of MDVN, they do this somewhat prematurely. (now only their 19'th largest position.) They were probably in a good mood today, since they made $90 million overnight on their ITMN holdings. As of June 30, GEVA was their largest position, followed by INCY, then PCYC. (Actually, if you count the warrants, INCY is by far their largest position.) I am, like the wimpy copycat I am, following them into AVNR. I also added slightly to my PCYC position, picking up some shares at the close at 119.74. I would not be frightened off by their selling (assuming that they were unloading today); they also sold a large chunk of GILD in the second quarter and it has gone from being a major holding to a token position in their portfolio.
Credit-Suisse provides a weekly summary of TRX/NRX numbers for Sovaldi and a number of other drugs, although they have not yet plugged in last week's numbers. The trend clearly demonstrates a gradual falloff in Sovaldi scripts from the peak in week 22, which I think we all attribute to the previously referenced warehousing. Sovaldi's share of the HCV market remains dominant. One of the interesting beneficiaries of more widespread treatment appears to be JNJ/Janssen's Olysio, the proteasome inhibitor which is used in combo therapies for one of the genotypes.
Cheer up, phosteric - today's biotech rally has lifted DNDN up a whole 4 cents to 1.36. Which proves that along with the ships, a rising tide also lifts the flotsam and jetsam.
Certainly there's a halo effect. The Amex Biotech Index is up 4.2% today, which puts MDVN just slightly ahead of the average. IBB, the popular pharma ETF is up 2.2% at this point. And my own pharma overweighted portfolio is booming. Curiously, the one stock which is not participating yet is PCYC, which surely has serious prospects. The other sure sign that we're in a serious rally here is that our board troll is back with more news about the fictitious generic Zytiga, now marked down further.
Yes, the jackals are slinking around the kill, looking for scraps. I think all boards of directors carry insurance policies to protect themselves against these suits nowadays. Which of course attracts more of these guys. Four different firms are now soliciting shareholders. Since the deal was just announced, do you think that they really have any evidence of malfeasance? Naw. Just hoping to be paid by the insurance company to go away.
Wells Fargo Thursday: Downgrade, acquisition price "baked in" at 53. And they get paid for this stuff.