That huge trade was the amalgamation of many trades made throughout the day at that point. Given the close, i'd guess that someone was accumulating shares there. As for the drag on the bid in the final half hour, the averages were nosediving into the close.
One additional point: The bias in this market is to the downside and profit taking. APPL hit it put of the park and has made about 4 points. I sold half my FB going into what looked like avery strong quarter. Cramer was pounding thetable after earnings and it caught a little bounce yesterday, but it came right back down today. Buyers are sitting on their hands, and the only thing which arouses them is some kind of short squeeze, as with oil today.
GOOD: 1. There is some skepticism going into earnings. Which means some short positions. Shorts - and those who squeeze them -are the only folks who are likely to buy immediately after earnings. 2. The major options expiration, unlike last time, is weeks away. This creates a lot less pressure on the stock in the short term. 3. Even in the absence of blowout earnings, the company has strong prospects. Particularly the one-pill-for-all HCV treatment.
BAD: 1. As before, there is a certain amount of euphoria among retail investors. In my view, any runup on Monday would be a bad sign. These folks aren't getting in for more than a trade. 2. No one knows how much the ABBV induced discounts will impact earnings. And GILD is unlikely to provide guidance. 3. The pool of untreated and insured HCV patients will shrink. And, as with HIV, the availability of competitive therapies will increase.
Net: This is still a great company, which I want to have in my portfolio. But I think I'll sit out earnings on the premise that I may get it cheaper Wednesday. However, if it stays under 105 going into earnings, I may stick a toe in and take an initial position.
On second thought, if this stays under 105 ahead of earnings, I may reestablish a partial position.
Hi, Raleigh. I'm in Hawaii until next week and out of GILD until after earnings. Overall market looks weak, I think.
Ps Noting that this latest permutation of your id is only 1day old, I can only assume that you made a complete fool of yourself on Monday.
Kelly, you're slipping. In the past, your make-believe shorts have always been magically executed at the high of the day. Fortunately, you constantly coin new variants on your id to escape ridicule.
Agree. The intrusion of political loonies of all stripes destroys meaningful discussion.
I have some FB, but I think playing earnings is perilous, especially given the foreign exchange adjustments which might be necessary for some this time. Rather than go long stocks which everyone is sure will beat earnings (isn't that easy), I would rather go long stocks which have a large short position and some skepticism. Everyone knows that Apple has sold a lot of phones, but I think there's a widespread suspicion that their watch is a bust. I have a lot of AAL, and I think their projections will be very good. But since I bought it at 29 - 30, I'm not worried. A riskier one would be IRWD or ARII. The latter is way off on the oil weakness, but since it's obviously not hurting the railroads, I don't think it will hurt them either. The cat is already out of the bag with PCYC - everyone can project ibrutinib sales from Janssen's numbers. I also think MDVN will be strong, but here again,my basis is very low. I have already had a nice bounce on CLMT, but if they declare a full dividend, it should be good for another couple of points. By the way, I would never use margin to bet on earnings. My general principle is to never buy a stock which I can't imagine holding for a year. Good luck.
PS The idea that the option players - people who don't have enough money to buy the actual stock - know more than those who hold the stock is laughable. The smart options players will be out of this by Wednesday at the latest.
I think the massive imbalance in those Feb 20 options indicates that the stock will have a very hard time breaching that level. You should be aware that one very efficient way of shorting this stock is to sell those 110 calls to the believers. In a short's dream, they let this ride up to 108.50 or so next week and are peddling those Feb110's for around 3 bucks.
Thanks, Keith, Interesting that these overwhelmingly favorable results were somehow distorted to look unfavorable. Even I, a statistics naïf, could calculate that in a study which was meant to measure progression-free survival, MDVN hit a home run. There is a post in SA which summarizes this nicely..
Well,let's guess. Santarus, a fairly analgous company, brought a 37% premium, which would bring us to around $22.
Yes, not only do I think that Miller's numbers are correct, I think that outside of Gilead management, he's in a better position than anyone to know the true extent of the discounting. And this, rather than market share, I would submit, is the real issue.
How about buying a pharma company which is not involved in a mutually destructive price war? How about neither?
What about this post merits the thumbs down? A mild opinion and an incontrovertible fact. I s anything less than "Sell everything and put it all into GILD." unacceptable? (Note: AAL from Oct.19 to present, 28.50 - 55.59. GILD over the same period, 101.44 - 105.19.).
Well, you seem to be catching some nice bounces lately. But I would never exit the airlines at this point. All three of the stocks you dropped made new 52 week highs today.
As reluctant as I am to give in to conspiracy theories, it looks to me like someone big was short the stock going into TERRAIN release and jumped on it at the open, whereupon many read bad things into the trial. Casodex only outperformed Xtandi if you don't adjust for the length of treatment and if you don't consider a metastasis an adverse outcome. (Actually, of course, it is the most adverse outcome.) I added quite a few shares, mostly just north of 104, and then, on the premise that you should put your buy orders in where others have their stops, got some at 103.94. I expected it to find its way back to 106, but it did better than that.