Neither one of these companies is going to the moon right away. Linzess has been approved for almost 3 years, has been steadily taking share from Amitiza, and still can't make money. In fact, both of these companies will probably float a secondary if they get any kind of a bounce. The cost of trials and marketing are steep, and a lot of the Linzess users are getting coupons. All these companies need to put them in the tank would be an expensive lawsuit. The best thing Ironwood has going for it as an acquisition target is the fact that if you could tuck Linzess into another organization and eliminate the salesforce, it would be slightly profitable. And, of course, there is the attraction of the more than a billion dollars of operating losses they've rung up.
The margin call part was supposed to be a joke. The redemptions part - although it should not cause him to dump his little stake in SGYP - is not. It looks like Paulson is about to lose nearly half a billion dollars in his investment in Greek banks and utilities.
I think you're grasping at straws, but if it helps you sleep better and keeps you out of the casinos, it's a fine thing.
Maybe Paulson's getting a margin call. Or some redemptions. His major bets - gold, smaller oil companies, Greek banks - are getting crushed again today.
With 35% of the float short, all they have to do is not mismanage the business as badly as SSYS and we could see a nice rally. Company has cash in the bank, is profitable and growing... just not at the breakneck speed many had anticipated.
The options action here suggests to me that they will have to take this up toward 10 - perhaps even through 10 briefly - before expiration.
Diarrhea is not the major problem of the chronically constipated. If I had the problem, I would take whichever drug my GI prescribes, which, increasingly, is Linzess. But I'm sorry that my posts don't rise to your level of sophistication.
Continuing his remarkable record of folly, we might note that Paulson was a major investor in Greek and Puerto Rican debt. He has so far lost an estimated $161 Million by investing in Greece's second largest bank. He has lost $75 million of his $137 million on his investment in Athens Water ... and may lose it all. He recently took a major stake in the newly floated $4.5 billion Puerto Rican bonds, which have already lost about 30% of their value. Some guru. You'd probably do better to follow Cramer (shudder).
I would also note that he seems to have made major bets on gold and some of the marginal oil producers at exactly the wrong time. His real expertise is in mergers, but he is underperforming his peers there, too.
I assume that there are many companies which Paulson does not own a stake in. His mystique derives mostly from his windfall in the housing crash. From the end of 2010 to the end of 2014, his Advantage Fund lost 48% of its value. During the same period, his Advantage Plus Fund lost 66% of its value. Hard to do during a time when the S&P almost doubled. He personally, of course, due to his hefty fees for providing this kind of outperformance, has done somewhat better.
Since all of the holdings you mention are as of 3/31, they obviously also reflect the first quarter 13f's. So, rather than arguing, go to the "major holders" page for SGYP and IRWD and make your own comparison. If, for example, the second quarter 13f for Orbimed or Fidelity showed a major shift out of IRWD and into SGYP, I might be impressed. We will see.
You mean "alluded". "Elude" means to avoid capture. None of those stakes, aside from the Orbimed position, looks particularly significant to me. The Blackrock and Vanguard positions I interpret as investments in their index funds. I used the Yahoo! "major holders" page, which reflects the most recent 13f information.
No, IRWD has liquid assets of $308 million, vs liabilities of $237 million, $160 million of which is longterm debt. You must have added in the over $1 billion in accumulated operating losses, which is actually a highly attractive item for a potential acquirer.
But a #$%$ product is exactly what this category calls for. A laxative with a low occurrence of diarrhea is, as the trials demonstrate, not that much better than a placebo.
While I share some of that poster's skepticism about the Plecanatide results, I agree that the hijacking of another poster's id is a shabby and desperate tactic.
I was responding to the assertion that "no one" owns IRWD. And yes, I have a small position in IRWD. Rode it up from 11ish to 17, then bailed progressively on the way down. I now hold a small position - 1.2% of my portfolio - on which I am underwater about 80 cents a share. It does seem to me that the overwhelming support from retail investors on this board is reminiscent of the old ARNA board, where a few trolls whipped up enthusiasm for the call options, which the hopeful would fall for again and again. Those boards also featured the dark adversary (VVUS) and the spectre of evil shorts.
Paulson's sake in SGYP is substantially lower than that of Orbimed Advisors, a smart biotech fund. According to the most recent 13f, Orbimed has $14.4 million invested in SGYP. However Orbimed has $192 million invested in Ironwood, controlling 9.4% of the shares. Fidelity has 15.69% , Wellington Management 13.92%, and Janus 11.82% ...In fact, according to Yahoo!, ten institutions control 78% of IRWD, .... the stock which "no one is buying." Aside from Paulson and Orbimed's relatively small stake, the only institutional investments of any size in SGYP were from Vanguard, all of it seemingly in index funds. (not a stirring endorsement) Even counting all of these, the top ten institutional holders only control about 28% of SGYP's stock. This may change when we see the next round of 13f's in a couple of weeks. But to cite Paulson's little plunge into SGYP as meaningful is pretty silly. It's certainly not as significant as his investment in AU, for example, which has lost him about $150 million over the past few months.
(1.) Sell 10 calls to the believers. (2.) Buy the stock immediately after monthly options expirations, when the disappointed call holders will have bailed, and sell it a few days before the next monthly expiration, when their expectations will have peaked again.