I first noticed the release about the breakthrough designation for perfenidone after hours on Friday. I am reasonably certain that I had heard nothing about it until this point. When I went to this board, I saw that faosto had posted about it. Now I see the PR release from ITMN dated July 17'th. Did I miss this or was Yahoo! just late in posting it?
Well, in the process of "killing" 1,300 89 puts, those sinister MM's sure drove a much larger number of calls into huge gains. ( 10,000 82.50's, 9,000 85's, 6,000 87.50's, etc). The notion that MM's can manipulate share prices to make options expire worthless is an enduring myth. It's the option holders themselves who manipulate the prices toward expiration. It looks to me like those who had their shares called away today went out and bought more. Incidentally, I also thought we would close much lower today.
For two months in a row. Expected this to sell off on options expiration, then rally at the close. Sold the shares out of my IRA when it was up 2.20 and then had to buy them back at a higher price. Fortunately, I had plenty in other accounts. It seems that people can't wait to roll over into the post-earnings options. Should continue upward Monday.
I was just about to post this. Went to see if I could pick up a few more shares cheap after hours, but the ask is now 45.73. Let's hope that it opens near there Monday.
To be exact, Zytiga sales were up 35.1% yoy in the US and 48% in overseas markets. The prechemo indication is obviously helping them. The fact that the recent quarter's sales would indicate annual sales of at least $2.25 billion gives us some idea of how strong Xtandi sales can be behind a prechemo indication. Incidentally, JNJ is also down about 5 points since they reported earnings.
We've lost 5 points since JNJ reported earnings on July 11. I'll speculate that the relatively strong Zytiga sales reported may be causing some to extrapolate weaker Xtandi uptake. I'd note that most of the increase in Zytiga sales was in overseas markets and that I think it's been established that Xtandi is taking share from Zytiga. A larger share of a growing market would seem to be good news to me.
Even managed a brief pop. Suggests that someone is accumulating it ... or at least defending it.
The massively overweight position in 85 calls was destined to take this down here. It should have a hard time getting dislodged from the 85 level tomorrow. I will add more at the close of tomorrow's session, anticipating a rebound as they start to roll over into the August calls. I think they will beat, which is widely anticipated; unless the beat is huge, it should sell off a bit on the news, then continue back up.
I don't see any reason to be so downhearted. At the moment, the Nov85 calls are going for 4.20. In effect, you're paying 89.20 for the stock in November. Seems possible. As for "98% institutional" ownership, that's a myth. Unless you actually hold the physical stock certificates, which almost no one does, your shares are listed as held by an institution. (e.g. All of my shares are listed as held by Schwab, therefore an institution.) If I were playing options - which I'm not - I think I would take a flier on the July85 calls. They are selling for about half a buck now, but if they push this thing to 82.50 over the next week, they could double. (They're up 25% today.) The point would be to cash them in several days before expiration.
The noise is just noise. You should note that since the original Waxman letter was publicized on March 21, this stock is up more than 10 points. As is the stock of CELG, MDVN, and many other makers of ultrapricey drugs.
Pushing it up above 82 briefly to put the July82.50 calls into play, then retreating to the 81.50 level, which looks like support now. I still think that they will take it above 82.50 before earnings to sell the 85's.
The strange thing in this case was that I attempted to post this message three times over a period of 18 hours, rewriting the post each time in case I had inadvertently violated some taboo. Each time, the message was deleted. Other messages on other boards posted as usual.
On the other hand, the last time you posted this nonsense, on May 13, the stock was at 66.
Note III: Medivation (Xtandi @ $85,000 per year) from 66 to 77. I could go on, but I feel like I'm slipping notes through the bars to evade the guards.
Note II: JNJ (Janssen's Doxil @ $24,000 per infusion, Imbruvica @ $130,000 a year, Zytiga @ $60,000 per year, etc.) from 95 to 105.
I have attempted 3 times to post what seems to me a fairly innocuous message citing the fact that since the brouhaha about drug price controls was ignited, the stock of companies with pricey drugs have been advancing strongly. Yahoo! has deleted these posts each time. Has Yahoo! forbidden posts which include the names of other companies here? This would preclude, for example, the discussion of competitors, suppliers, or, in this case, analogous companies. (Note that I am avoiding the mention of specific companies.) If so, this seems abysmally stupid.