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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 8539 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    OT - bearofbleeker

    by betting_freddy 19 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 15 hours ago Flag

    Correction: Astellas reports on Auguust 1, not September 1. The first question they ask you in the Alzheimer's evaluation test is "What's the date today?" Oblivious to the fact that if you're retired, you don't even know which day of the week it is. Trying to keep it together nevertheless. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    OT - bearofbleeker

    by betting_freddy 19 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 18 hours ago Flag

    PS I should add that there is an acquisition premium priced into the stock -- the possibility that Astellas may offer to acquire the company.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 18 hours ago Flag

    You seem to be operating on the basis of a rather unique calendar of events.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 18 hours ago Flag

    I wouldn't count on that 25-50 point move, Doc. I'd be happy with 2 points on the 2nd quarter sales data, then maybe 5 more when it gets pre-chemo approval from the FDA. The real upside here, of course, is the possibility of Astellas buying us out.

  • Reply to

    Shorts are not backing down on GILD.

    by humpty0827 19 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 18 hours ago Flag

    To reiterate, I see no sign of active short selling on GILD. Over the past 10 sessions, the daily short volume only once approached 40%. If there had been substantial short exposure, the stock wouldn't have just sat there and washed out the call holders on expiration. The blowout earnings obviously surprised no one, but the larger players chose not to buy into the headwind of options expiration. Now they will add to their positions and see if they can sell the Aug95's, I believe.

  • Reply to

    OT - bearofbleeker

    by betting_freddy 19 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 18 hours ago Flag

    Well, the earnings estimates have been repeatedly revised upwards, and it seems to be showing support at 75 in recent days. Sales of JNJ's Zytiga (the drug which, to this point, has mostly been administered before Xtandi) were very strong in JNJ's recent report, and all indications are that Xtandi is taking share from Zytiga and is increasingly being used off-label in the pre-chemo setting. (Specifically, a survey of physicians by Credit-Suisse at the ASCO conference referenced a growing preference for Xtandi.) Another upside is the potential for use in other androgen-regulated malignancies, particularly certain breast cancers. The trials in the application are early ones, but there have been some encouraging results. The PREVAIL trial results should provide ample support for the FDA to approve Xtandi for pre-chemo patients. On the other hand, prowling around the prostate cancer support blogs, I am surprised by the degree to which therapies which I would consider outdated continue to be prescribed. Urologists, who basically do the surgeries and continue to treat the patients until they officially become MCRPC, whereupon they get passed on to oncologists, seem to be still using the same old drugs, probably because, unlike oncologists, they're reluctant to use a drug off-label. If they eventually adopt Xtandi - which I believe they will - sales estimates could move up rather dramatically. In short, I like it for the long term. Incidentally, Astellas, their partner in Xtandi, reports sales results on September 1, so we will all know how well they're doing well before they formally announce earnings. In short, I like MDVN for the long term. I hope the followers of GILD (which is by far my largest long position) will pardon the intrusion.

  • Reply to

    PCYC earning

    by neelb2001 20 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 19 hours ago Flag

    Yes, I noted the same departure from the usual sober matter-of-fact tone. Duggan's actual closing statement, after saying that he was looking forward to talking to the analysts again on the Thursday call, was "It's a call you won't want to miss." If I was short, that would give me pause.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 21 hours ago Flag

    Yes, as of 7/15. But the last ten trading days show almost no shortselling activity, so we can sure that it's somewhat lower than that. In fact, you would be hardpressed to find a stock in which there was less shortselling than in GILD. Also, we can be sure that most of those "short" shares are actually hedging long positions or the sale of puts. The most telling evidence that there were no exposed short positions here was the lukewarm reaction to the blowout earnings.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 21 hours ago Flag

    There is no evidence whatsoever of active shortselling in this stock. (In only one out of the last ten trading days did short trades even approach 40% of the volume. Bedrock stocks like VZ and PFE were much more heavily shorted.) But those hopeful souls who hold call options right into expiration always attribute their losses to mythical shorts. In a sense, they're right, since the folks who sold them those calls have, in effect, put a limited short on the stock. So, if you are counting on some kind of short capitulation to carry this higher, I think you're mistaken.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 hours ago Flag

    Gibberish. There are no shorts in this stock - other than those who sell out of the money calls to the hopeful.

  • Reply to

    this stock should be at least 95 by now IMO

    by usa_republic52 Jul 28, 2014 10:07 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 hours ago Flag

    Well, the Aug95 calls have moved from .51 Friday morning to .85 at the moment...a nice 65% gain. When they reach 1.65 or so, with the stock around 93.75, the present rally should slow.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 27, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    Putting the macho bravado aside, the fact is that prisoners will be treated with Sovaldi eventually. Because if they're not, they will sue the states. And they will win.

  • Prisons are the reservoir of Hep C infection in the US. Somewhere between 25 -30% of the America's almost 2 million prisoners are infected. They spread the infection through dirty needles and tattooing. The released prisoners then carry the infection to the outside. It's mistake to think only of old junky cons - the turnover in prisons is fairly brisk. It's estimated that around 10 million people pass through the various US correction systems each year. But let's be conservative and say that if you treated all HCV positive prisoners, we might be talking about 500,000 people in the first year. At a cut-rate price of $42,000 apiece, this would amount to $21 billion. The profit margin for Gilead would be outrageous. No steak dinners for doctors, and certainly no attractive young women passing out brochures. And, unlike the millions of undiagnosed Hep C patients in the outside world, we know where to find these people. This should product about $18 billion in easy profits for Gilead, from which the government would reclaim about 3.25 billion in income taxes. So the whole thing costs less than $15 billion the first year, and less each succeeding year as the Hep C carrier population is progressively reduced. This is too radical an idea for the US of course. But rational countries like the Netherlands, with an estimated 70,000 HCV carriers, will see the wisdom of universal treatment.

  • The alarmist types are arguing that if the government pays $84,000 for everyone to be cured of Hepatitis C, the costs will be astronomical. This is nonsense. In the US, Hepatitis C is basically a disease of young (18-29) intravenous drug users. Most of them don't know they have it and will not be tested for it until they become acutely ill. So, even though it would be good social policy to cure the carriers and stem the rising rate of infection, it probably won't happen. People who have health insurance will get the drug. The insurance carriers will whine and then pass along the cost in the form of increased rates ...just as utilities pass along higher fuel costs. Certainly, a lot of people under Medicaid and the VA system will also get the drug, with the government footing the bill. However, about 18% of the money the government spends - plus 18% of the money the health insurers spend - will flow back to the government in the form of income taxes. A crude analysis might be ... Private insurers spend $10 billion a year on Sovaldi, yielding $7.5 billion a year in profits for Gilead and $1.35 billion a year in taxes to the government. The government spends another $10 billion a year on Sovaldi, again yielding $7.5 billion in profits and $1.35 billion in tax revenues. The net cost to the government is a mere $7.3 billion, which, considering the economic and social benefits of stemming the burgeoning Hepatitis C epidemic, is not that bad a deal. In fact, considering that the government currently spends $8 billion a year just to maintain vacant properties for which it has no use, it's cheap.

  • Aggressive management, but no succession plan.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Jul 25, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    ... and you knew that the 2015's were going to be in the showrooms Monday, you might be reluctant to buy one today. Which is why the big players were waiting for the July options to wash out before they bought this. However, if you could buy an option to get a 2015 at the same price as the 2014, that might seem like a good deal. Which is why this popped at the close after being held down at 89, 89.25, 89.50, and 89.75 successively. If the market hadn't been so weak, it would have made 90. Which it will definitely do Monday.

  • Reply to

    The Black Box wants shares today....

    by bearofbleecker Jul 25, 2014 12:54 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 25, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Oh, okay, 89.84. But the current ask is 89.98. And this will open above 90 Monday. Incidentally, the price on those Aug95 calls closed at .65, with the ask at .69.

  • Reply to

    Big Cats are playing Dump and Cover/

    by mbislying Jul 25, 2014 12:39 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 25, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    The problem with this stock is not shorts, but lack of shorts. The only truly active shorts are those who sell out of the money calls.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Jul 25, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    ...but has its thumb on the scales. Buy @ 89.24 sell @ 89.25. Buy @ 89.49 sell @ 89.50. And you can be fairly sure that the shares The Box was buying at 89.49 will be dumped in at 89.75 to try to hold the price there for a while. I think this should close at 90. But the action over the last half hour should be interesting in any case.

  • Reply to

    Dunked it below 89 twice ...

    by bearofbleecker Jul 25, 2014 11:37 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 25, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    PS The ask on those Aug95 calls is now .64 - that's a 25% jump over the last half hour. Perhaps a little clue there to next week's pricing.

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