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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 580 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 minutes ago Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 minutes ago Flag

    I use a site to trace short volume (which I will not name here for fear of being deleted as SPAM) which I think is quite reliable. It shows short volume peaking at over 50% of trading volume on the Friday immediately before the release of the trial results, and at about 50% on the following Monday when the price popped. Since then, short sales as a percentage of trading volume has been quite low. (30 - 35%) This suggests that the shorts were punished badly on Monday and that many of them responded by doubling up on their positions. Incidentally, it's not at all unusual for daily short volume to exceed 50%. For PCYC, for example, short volume exceeded 60% on the first three days of last week, and only fell off to 55% on the last two days. Yet, during this time, the stock price actually rose.

  • Reply to

    For fun,oct 20 guess

    by guzzimark 1 hour 22 minutes ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 42 minutes ago Flag

    110. Perhaps on to 120 by yearend, a lot of it on windowdressing.

  • Reply to

    any news?

    by atruthbomb Sep 19, 2014 10:59 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 18 hours ago Flag

    Remember that this company does the preponderance of its business overseas. The strengthening of the dollar against foreign currencies will no doubt impact earnings. But not by 16%.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 19 hours ago Flag

    Well, you can paint the tape AH with a few hundred shares. And it gets noticed a lot more if you do it before the market opens. But this was about half a million shares in the last 12 minutes before the close. That's roughly a 13 million dollar paint job.

  • ... which lifted the price by about 50 cents. ?????

  • Reply to

    Best close today would be 10.99

    by spectate_ulator 22 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 hours ago Flag

    I suspect the calls have been largely liquidated here. If this finishes above 11, it should go higher Monday.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 hours ago Flag

    Well, my basis is around 6.80 for the shares I'm still holding... which looks pretty green to me. Oct11 calls are selling here for 1.15, which means that some are, in effect, buying at 12.15.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 hours ago Flag

    Having tried to catch a bounce under 12 yesterday and losing a couple of hundred bucks, I bought from 10.70 down to 10.54 today and sold at 11, thinking that it would come back to the call price. If it finishes above 11 today, this will be very bullish.

  • IMS reports for week of 9/12: TRx 32,168; NRx 15,381 (+8.4% and 16.2% w/w). Linzess now has larger share of market than Amitiza. Also, anecdotally, patient reviews online are very favorable. Note that this is a drug which one is likely to take for many years.

  • Reply to

    bought the dip at 105.78

    by nawid123 Sep 19, 2014 10:45 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 19, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    Fairly obvious that this will end the day at 105 today, at the higher end of the option range, then move higher Monday as folks roll into the 110's.

  • Reply to

    Apologies to yi71 ....

    by bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 11:27 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 18, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    I once heaped scorn on a poster who signed himself "MGHMD". Then, in going through his posts, I found that he was not only exactly what he was pretending to be, but had real expertise on the subject he was posting about. Also, given his past posts, I concluded that he was a very successful investor. My view of the markets is a bit more cynical than yours. All they really need to drive this up is a sufficient number of hopeful shorts...which, from the look of this board, we seem to be accumulating. I will add here under 12 for a trade. Good luck.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 11:27 PM Flag

    ...whom I had misidentified as an academic on the basis of his meaningless circumlocution. (e.g. "Some stocks go up and others that you expect to go up will go down. Wisdom is elusive and relative. Knowledge is imperfect and often deficient." etc.) Reading back through his posts, I find that he's an M.D. Although they are generally lousy investors, M.D.'s are an important source of information on boards such as these. So I apologize for my effrontery in guessing that the stock would move to 14 and that a secondary would be announced at about 13.80. But, Doc, if you really are "hoping that they will eke out enough revenue from sales to avoid a new offering", you're dreaming.

  • Reply to

    Intelligence wanted.

    by pkanez1488 Sep 17, 2014 6:01 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 11:11 PM Flag

    I am guessing that you are an academic. Mostly on the basis of your prior post: "Some stocks go up and others that you expect to go up will go down. Wisdom is elusive and relative. Knowledge is imperfect an often deficient..." etc. This blather has no doubt earned you tenure somewhere, but is, after all, meaningless.
    You say that "insiders own all of .59% of the shares". Poor math, but irrelevant. According to Yahoo!, the 10 top institutions own about 58% of the float and the ten top mutual funds own another 24.6%. The largest chunks are in the hands of T. Rowe Price, Baker Brothers, FMR, Blackrock, etc. You seem to think that the "50% of the 171 million shares" that were traded Monday actually changed hands. Which disregards the common knowledge that about 3/4 of the daily volume in any stock is black box trading. Daytraders pop in and out and high velocity traders frontrun their orders, creating phantom volume. The sudden appearance of many shortsellers here is testament to the flurry of trading created around a stock which almost doubles during a single session. The chart will tell you that none of the large positions are being liquidated here.
    And yes, a 20 cent discount is about the right discount for a secondary on a stock which is rallying. And yes, I am guessing that the stock will get pushed up to about 14 before the secondary is announced. These are guesses. Of course," some stocks go up and others that you expect to go up will go down. Wisdom is elusive and relative. Knowledge is imperfect and often deficient." Which is a longwinded and pompous way to say "Guess." Let's hear yours, professor.

  • Reply to

    Some lightening up here.

    by bearofbleecker Aug 20, 2014 4:08 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    I don't know why this old post has been resurrected. But as long as it has, I will respond to the assertion that " when it comes to investing, there is no creation of money". Trading may be closer to a zero sum game. Investing, however, actually does create wealth. Andrew Mellon invested in the Mellon Bank, Northern Trust, Gulf Oil, Alcoa, Koppers, etc. and basically never traded asingle share. No one lost money betting against him because he never bet. Huge wealth was created.

  • Reply to

    Intelligence wanted.

    by pkanez1488 Sep 17, 2014 6:01 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    You realize that by projecting all of these wonderful things as a basis for a 25-30 price, you are just offering a variation on the amateurish "To the moon!" scenario. The stock just doubled. The expectation that it will double again in the short term is unrealistic.

  • Reply to

    Intelligence wanted.

    by pkanez1488 Sep 17, 2014 6:01 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Bird in the hand. They need more capital to run trials. You are projecting a number of fortunate events. Good judgment would suggest that you issue a secondary on the heels of the current fortunate news. We will see.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    This has lost almost 25% of its value year-to-date. This company depends on the willingness of the Chinese government to transfer hundreds of billions of renminbi to a rightwing American billionaire. Good luck with that.

  • Reply to

    2,090,140 shares changed hands at the close

    by rroy07 Sep 17, 2014 4:28 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    I obviously meant 110 or 120. I would guess that this moves closer to 110 on Monday and proceeds to 120 by the end of October.

  • Reply to

    I'M OUT, GOOD-BYE

    by iknightu Sep 17, 2014 6:57 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 7:09 PM Flag

    Yes, invest your somewhat diminished nestegg in Alibubble.

  • Reply to

    Shorted at $12.76

    by goinlower Sep 17, 2014 11:00 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 17, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    Yes, another fantasy position - someone who has magically managed to short at the high of the day...and made an imaginary quarter a share. However, if you'd realized the potential of this drug and bought it immediately after the trial results were released, you'd have made a real 2.50 a share.

ONXX
124.700.00(0.00%)Sep 30 4:00 PMEDT

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