Whenever I see a fast runup at the open followed by a slow walk down, I assume that there is some organized selling going on. I'd also say that the flatline around 101.25 was probably indicative of put buying or perhaps even outright shortselling. I sold half my IRA shares around 101.40, bought back half of those when it crossed back over 100. I still expect it to hang around here for a while in the absence of news and perhaps move briefly down to the 97.50 level. There's just a little too much certitude on the part of retail investors.
Pathetic to see those who slap themselves on the back over a 50 cent price drop when they should be kicking themselves for missing a stock which has almost doubled over the past year.
Still outside with the other bitter Dendreonites looking through the window at the partyin the big house? Zytiga was turned down by Nice for pre-chemo use not becauseof its price, but because Jannsen screwed up and ended their trial before they had proved an overall survival benefit, which leaves their QALY equation without a denominator. Medivation isnot making that mistake. Combined with the NICE ruling that they would not pay for administering both Zytiga and Xtandi to the same patient, the net effect is that very soon, whether thet get it pre or post chemo, British PC patients will be be getting only Xtandi.
I only sold 1/4 of my position in my IRA. Just rebalancing a bit. GILD is still far and away my largest long position. Besides, I have a rule that on days when the Dow is up more than 150 points, I sell something; on days when it's down more than 150 points, I buy something. Short term, I expect this to linger around here for a while. By October we will be aflutter about the combo and forthcoming earnings.
I read the abbreviated DB blog in Barron's. The data is expected in the fall from a small Phase I test being run in New Zealand. The superior efficacy to Sovaldi was recorded for one type of Hep C in a preclinical trial (mice? petri dishes?) This is a long way from being a serious contender to Sovaldi. Their other hope is in combining one of their drugs with Sovaldii -- but everyone's waiting in line for that slot, including Gilead. Interestingly, one of DB's reasons for upgrading Achillion is that their CMO and team came over from Pharmasset, the company which Gilead bought for their Hep C drug. No concern, IMO.
It's also worth noting that the IBB (of which I think GILD is about 8%) and the other pharma ETF's are well off their highs here. The Dow - meaning the banks, mostly - is holding up much better. The long bonds are dropping here and with the FOMC minutes coming out later this week, there is some justifiable nervousness about interest rates rising. Short term, not a good omen, I think.
You should also note that Vertex just pulled its formerly successful HepC drug off the market, conceding the field to Sovaldi. For those other competitive drugs to pull in ahead of Sovaldi, they will have to demonstrate superiority in clinical trials, which won't be easy. Or quick. In fact, I think most of them are devoting their energy to trials which pair their drugs with Sovaldi.
Looking at AVNR, it seems to me that they have a lot of irons in the fire and are burning through cash. On the other hand, they do have one viable drug ... and a lot of irons in the fire. Mainly, I can't help noticing that in the 13f filed by Baker Brothers Advisors for the second quarter, they had quadrupled their holdings to over 18 million shares -- more than 10% of the float. It was, at that point, about the twelfth largest position in their portfolio.
Also note that at this point, GILD is up about 1.2% for the day -- just about as much as dull old JNJ. There is profit-taking going on here, mostly via those who bought calls Friday selling them.
Note that, in the face of a 165 point rally in the DJI, this has now pulled back to just above its opening price for the day. Which would seem to validate my recommendation that you not buy into today's predictable options-fueled euphoria. If, in fact, you had bought at any time after the market opening, you would be slightly behind on those shares at this point. The options market has finished selling hope and it will now peddle fear in the form of sub-100 puts. I still think you will get a shot at your new shares later this week in the 97.50 area.ou're not buying a lot of stock, so this is just a matter of a few bucks saving. But the principle - sell into strength and buy into weakness - is worth paying attention to.
If you look at the chart, you'll see that this is one of the few biotech stocks which recovered quickly from the February selloff and made new highs. Even the much heralded GILD didn't recover its February 25'th price until July 18. As it happened, ITMN had its big runup on Feb.25, almost tripling from 13.96 to 37.80. So it would seem to have been very vulnerable to the biotech pullback which began on that day. However, by May 19 - a month ahead of GILD - ITMN had recovered its February 15 price. My point: Rather than a pump-and-dump, this is a continuation of a sustained strong upward move.
I'll bet that most of those who say "I'm out" here are only selling their September calls ... which might not be a bad idea for a short term trade. Just as those who say "I'm going short" here are only buying some puts ... which also might not be a bad idea for a short term trade. To actually bail on GILD as an investment is another matter. Since we are at an alltime high, any long is, by definition, showing a capital gain at this point, with the prospect of it compounding and turning into a long term capital gain. Even if you're only ahead 10 points, taking that profit now will cost you about 2.5 points in taxes (or, if you're living in California and having a good year in the market, as much as 4.5 points). So, unless you think GILD is going to 99 and never getting above there for the rest of the year, selling to protect a few points is a questionable move. Incidentally, I expect the stock to move back under 100 and linger there for a little while. I have actually sold 1/4 of my position out of my IRA this morning, since I am way overweight in this stock and this seemed like as good a time as any.
It only failed in the study which was testing whether there was a benefit in giving it to relapsed patients as a maintenance therapy, I believe. Basically, Kyprolis has been a great success for Amgen.