Kudos for the honesty to admit that you went short and lost on that position. Few here will admit to that, even though over the last three sessions, the stock has basically moved from 10 to 12.50. Obviously, buying on the dips has been more profitable than trying to short the peaks. Here is what I think is going on here: The smart money knows that they will issue more stock; the question is, where? This particular opportunity is huge and the stock is really rather closely held. At some point, they will flatline the stock and announce a secondary offering about 20 cents below there. But I see no sign of it happening right away. The MM's will give this a good runup before the dilution. With price targets in the 15+ area, I don't see why they shouldn't let it run to 14 and announce the secondary at 13.80. The secondary underwriters will support it there, and it should settle there for a while before proceeding upward.
You can't really trade over 2 million shares at the close without moving the price rather radically. These are amalgamated trades made earlier - probably in dark pools - and reported after hours. The price - which I think was around 103.80 - is probably where it will close Friday. If not there, certainly just shy of 105. There is no mystery here. Everyone knows that when the combo therapy is approved in October, and before earnings are reported at the end of October, this will be at 10 or 120. I suspect the latter.
When Congo was prophesizing a secondary and the stock was under 6, I asked him why the secondary couldn't happen at a substantially higher price, and surmised that the MM's would give the share price a good shove up before announcing one. Now they will have to see how high this can go before they dilute the stock. Once the stock stabilizes, I could foresee a secondary priced about 20 cents below the current price. The underwriters would commit to stabilize the stock at this price, so, in effect, it would act as support. Nothing to be afraid of, in my opinion.
That little missive would seem to be better news for shorts than longs. Are you getting a little jumpy here? Be careful. I think they are sitting on it at 11.82 to accumulate shares below that price, and when we move through that level it may happen rather dramatically.
Those puts were real popular yesterday @1.25. They're now bid @ .30. An easy way to lose about 80% of your investment overnight. This will close @ 105 on Sept 20, I believe.
PS Virtually everyone who has shorted this stock today is now underwater ...of course they will all claim to have shorted it in that brief excursion above 12. Hopefully, they will double up at 12. In which case, they will get hammered again, I believe.
Every time a stock surges dramatically - particularly a pharma stock - it attracts the usual jackals, lurking on the edge of the kill, hoping to pick up a few scraps. These folks who short the stock are the accelerant which will fuel the next leg up. I particularly love those who pretend to have owned the stock before the runup and are now advising the rest of us to sell and take our profits.
I obviously meant 28.50. I was wrong. I doubled my position today, selling the shares I bought below 28 for a small profit and keeping the shares I bought between 28 and 28.50 for a small loss.
If I was selling something to buy Alibaba (which I'm certainly not), I'd sell XOM or INTC or something a little less volatile. By the way, I still don't believe the shares they painted the tape with before the open ....or the predictable little dump at the end. I believe the 4.5 million shares which traded in the first two hours and hardly moved the needle at all. ( My equanimity is buttressed by a largish position in AVNR.)
Whenever a stock surges, you can be sure than jonwhateverkelly will be there pretending to short it. Now that the stock looks like it's stalled here at 12, you can be sure that it's not. Let some real shorts into the trap here.
I honestly think that NPSP is under accumulation. I am planning to end the day with a larger long position. Good luck to you.
A good rule, which I have learned to my own grief at times, is to never chase a bad short up. If it takes out your stops, leave it alone. Or go long.
Yes, my largish position here has emboldened me to deal with the black box over on NSPS.