The fact is, anti-cancer vaccines, such as Provenge, have a dismal track record. It's becoming increasingly evident that cancers may be controlled without ever being "cured". This will happen through a constantly evolving combination of monoclonal antibodies, proteasome inhibitors, etc. For example, Gleevec, a tyrosine-kinase inhibitor, has not cured CML, but it has transformed it from a fatal disease into a chronic condition. When, over the resistance of the urologists, Xtandi is administered before surgery is resorted to, there will be many fewer prostate cancers in need of "curing".
While you're gazing intently at those charts, you should be aware that the ASCO GU abstracts, which will feature results of Xtandi's crucial PREVAIL trial, will be released at 5pm EST Tuesday. It would be extremely hazardous to be short this stock ahead of this event IMHO.
Again, the $278 million projection for 2014 is total revenues, not earnings. Credit-Suisse projects this to double in 2015, at which point they will be earning, by their estimates, about $150 million. But this kind of valuation is not as extreme as it sounds.
Celgene lost $3.34 per share in 2008, but the stock closed that year at 55. Over the ensuing 5 years, the stock has almost tripled. Gilead lost 17 cents per share in 2003, yet the stock closed at 55. However, if you adjust the price for the multiple splits since then, the shares were priced at 6.85. In other words, if you'd gone for that absurd valuation at the end of 2003, you would have multiplied your money 11.75 times. A $10,000 investment in that seemingly overpriced stock would have turned into $117,500. Of course, this will never happen with PCYC, simply because the company will be bought out long before that kind of stunning growth happens.
Woulda coulda shoulda. On the other hand, this was one of the vey few stocks which you could not short profitably today.
PS "projected earnings of less than 500 mil in 2014" is too high. The Credit-Suisse analyst is modeling $278 million in total revenues in 2014 (which probably includes a lot of milestone payments) and double that in 2015, at which point he expects them to be earning about $150 million. It's that potential to double and redouble which you're paying for.
I'll offer some general observations about early stage pharma stocks: They obviously ride up on strong trials results. Then, as the retail investors get impatient and nervous, the stock falls off. The stock rallies again on FDA approval, then gives some of it back - how much depends on how big the short position is and how many retail investors are waiting to take profits. (I'd say that the short position here is relatively tiny and that there are quite a few retail investors eager to cash in, so there should be a good deal of "sell-on-the-expected- news") However, I think that the commercial potential of this drug is so strong that those shares will be taken up by stronger hands. (Remember, we have a number of analysts with $175 price targets.) This is the important part: The real price appreciation happens when the company begins to turn a profit, however so small. Or, which is more likely in this case, when the buyout offer comes.
I'd say that FDA approval is a virtual certainty. The drug is already being used off-label for CLL and the physicians and patients are eagerly awaiting it. It will also be approved for Waldenstrom's. There is a strong likelihood that it will later be used for multiple myeloma, which is a huge market. You should be aware that the stock may be driven down ahead of an expected buyout by the arbitrageurs. At the beginning of this month, MDVN was driven down to 63.50 and then to 62.50 -- where the arbitrageurs tried to accumulate shares, I assume. It has gone virtually straight up since then. If PCYC weakens further tomorrow, I might wait until the end of the session to add those shares back - when they start to roll over into the February options Monday, they should resume their climb. It's hard to see how this stock doesn't make 160 some time this year.
Granted that the overall market has little to do with the fortunes of PCYC. However, if this pullback is, as you suggest, preordained, it may continue for a while. Not selling this...I have plenty and I don't want to give all that money to the taxman. However, I'd be cautious about adding here.
Well, I'm long this stock, and it's a dangerous stock to be out of - at any minute the news could be very good. However, I think if I held the Jan135's, I'd sell them here and take my profits.
Well, the reason I bought it early this morning had nothing to do with Rupert and everything to do with the blowout numbers reported by GATX. I suspect others are doing the same.
Your unbridled joy is palpable. However, consider how happy you'd be if, instead of starting to short this at 76, you'd gone long.
PS Note that the amalgamated trade posted at the close would tend to suggest that someone was accumulating around 75.11
I think they let the call expiration carry it down to 75 and are now setting up for a runup on Tuesday. I added more @ 75.02. There is no other obvious reason for it to be up AH other than tape painting.
When someone has to concoct a new id in order to post the same old nonsense without incurring ridicule, one would tend to question their commitment.
maxcoatinc answered your question in his post: Call options representing over 1 million shares are expiring in the money. The sellers, if they have covering positions, can let the shares go or buy more shares to replace them. The sellers of naked calls have to buy shares. Just another form of short squeeze.
Okay, this answers the liar/idiot question definitively. Another diehard Dendreonite, I assume.
That little dip toward the end of yesterday's session was caused by someone selling about 18,000 shares into the market suddenly. If someone was trying to precipitate a panic, they failed. By the time another 18,000 shares had traded, the stock was right back up. And a few more shorts had taken the bait. (viz "TIMBERRRR!").
Over the past year, in the midst of a surging biotech market, DNDN has lost almost half its value. Maybe you guys need to come up with some more reasons.
By this time, some of you might have noticed that those low volumes at the open are always new shorts arriving for the shearing. By the end of the day, they have usually been shorn. This stock was in strong hands to begin with and is gradually passing into stronger hands.