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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

bearofbleecker 210 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    Continuing his remarkable record of folly, we might note that Paulson was a major investor in Greek and Puerto Rican debt. He has so far lost an estimated $161 Million by investing in Greece's second largest bank. He has lost $75 million of his $137 million on his investment in Athens Water ... and may lose it all. He recently took a major stake in the newly floated $4.5 billion Puerto Rican bonds, which have already lost about 30% of their value. Some guru. You'd probably do better to follow Cramer (shudder).

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    I would also note that he seems to have made major bets on gold and some of the marginal oil producers at exactly the wrong time. His real expertise is in mergers, but he is underperforming his peers there, too.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    I assume that there are many companies which Paulson does not own a stake in. His mystique derives mostly from his windfall in the housing crash. From the end of 2010 to the end of 2014, his Advantage Fund lost 48% of its value. During the same period, his Advantage Plus Fund lost 66% of its value. Hard to do during a time when the S&P almost doubled. He personally, of course, due to his hefty fees for providing this kind of outperformance, has done somewhat better.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    Since all of the holdings you mention are as of 3/31, they obviously also reflect the first quarter 13f's. So, rather than arguing, go to the "major holders" page for SGYP and IRWD and make your own comparison. If, for example, the second quarter 13f for Orbimed or Fidelity showed a major shift out of IRWD and into SGYP, I might be impressed. We will see.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    You mean "alluded". "Elude" means to avoid capture. None of those stakes, aside from the Orbimed position, looks particularly significant to me. The Blackrock and Vanguard positions I interpret as investments in their index funds. I used the Yahoo! "major holders" page, which reflects the most recent 13f information.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    No, IRWD has liquid assets of $308 million, vs liabilities of $237 million, $160 million of which is longterm debt. You must have added in the over $1 billion in accumulated operating losses, which is actually a highly attractive item for a potential acquirer.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    But a #$%$ product is exactly what this category calls for. A laxative with a low occurrence of diarrhea is, as the trials demonstrate, not that much better than a placebo.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    While I share some of that poster's skepticism about the Plecanatide results, I agree that the hijacking of another poster's id is a shabby and desperate tactic.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    I was responding to the assertion that "no one" owns IRWD. And yes, I have a small position in IRWD. Rode it up from 11ish to 17, then bailed progressively on the way down. I now hold a small position - 1.2% of my portfolio - on which I am underwater about 80 cents a share. It does seem to me that the overwhelming support from retail investors on this board is reminiscent of the old ARNA board, where a few trolls whipped up enthusiasm for the call options, which the hopeful would fall for again and again. Those boards also featured the dark adversary (VVUS) and the spectre of evil shorts.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Paulson's sake in SGYP is substantially lower than that of Orbimed Advisors, a smart biotech fund. According to the most recent 13f, Orbimed has $14.4 million invested in SGYP. However Orbimed has $192 million invested in Ironwood, controlling 9.4% of the shares. Fidelity has 15.69% , Wellington Management 13.92%, and Janus 11.82% ...In fact, according to Yahoo!, ten institutions control 78% of IRWD, .... the stock which "no one is buying." Aside from Paulson and Orbimed's relatively small stake, the only institutional investments of any size in SGYP were from Vanguard, all of it seemingly in index funds. (not a stirring endorsement) Even counting all of these, the top ten institutional holders only control about 28% of SGYP's stock. This may change when we see the next round of 13f's in a couple of weeks. But to cite Paulson's little plunge into SGYP as meaningful is pretty silly. It's certainly not as significant as his investment in AU, for example, which has lost him about $150 million over the past few months.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Aug 2, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    (1.) Sell 10 calls to the believers. (2.) Buy the stock immediately after monthly options expirations, when the disappointed call holders will have bailed, and sell it a few days before the next monthly expiration, when their expectations will have peaked again.

  • Reply to

    Plecanatide not up to snuff

    by indiansfans407 Jul 30, 2015 5:58 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 31, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    You don't need a degree in statistics to realize that if a placebo cures your disease, you're not really that sick.

  • Reply to

    Plecanatide not up to snuff

    by indiansfans407 Jul 30, 2015 5:58 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 31, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Although my figures for Linzess's relative performance vs placebo are not the same as indiansfans, my conclusion is the same: the SGYP drug's performance vs placebo is much weaker. The higher efficacy reported for the placebo in the SGYP trial suggests that far from being more stringently selected, the recruiting was sloppy. (i.e. if a placebo cures your constipation, perhaps you're not really constipated.) Also, while the higher dosage of Linzess was dramatically more effective than the lower dosage, the performance of both dosages in the SGYP trial was virtually identical. Which also suggests that the stuff doesn't work that well. Which would also explain why the incidence of diahhrea is lower. In practice, most of the cases of diahhrea with Linzess go away when the patient takes the drug before breakfast, as is recommended.

  • Reply to


    by bachert48 Jul 30, 2015 3:31 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 30, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    The data on the new trial demonstrate that the drug just doesn't work very well.

  • Reply to

    SEC should investigate these trades.

    by blackjackldk Jul 29, 2015 2:47 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 30, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    The key event was the Credit-Suisse downgrade in April which, even though they actually raised their price target, called attention to indications that the duration of treatment with Xtandi was lower than expected. This was enough to make me exit, although I bought back a quarter position at 120, abandoning it quickly when it couldn't hold that level. The C-S analyst at the time, Lee Kalowski, left when they essentially ended their coverage of this and other pharmas. He moved to Cambridge to become CEO of Tokai Pharmaceuticals, which has an androgen interceptor which may be effective in patients who don't respond to either Zytiga or Xtandi. He added Cheryl Cohen to the board in April - she was chief commercial officer of Medivation until her retirement in July 2014. Could be the next MDVN. Or the next DNDN. Worth a little tumble, I think.

  • Reply to


    by bominireal123 Jul 30, 2015 10:18 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 30, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    Says the man who was pumping DNDN all during its death throes. And, pathetically, is still hanging out here for that tiny frisson of schadenfreude which is his only consolation.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 30, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    According to the newer study, Linzess's superiority to the SGYP drug is even more marked. In the earlier SGYP study, the two dosages were 10.8% and 9.3% superior to the placebo. In the newer study, the dosages were only 7.2% and 7.3% superior to the placebo. The Linzess dosages were 17% and 9.9% superior to placebo. The slightly lower diarrhea occurrence for the SGYP drug can be attributed to the fact that it just doesn't work very well. Which is also demonstrated by the fact that the higher dosage doesn't work any better than the lower dosage. There is a large psychological component to these results. Otherwise why would people who are chronically constipated report that the placebo gave them diarrhea?

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 30, 2015 1:48 PM Flag

    Bloomberg still misunderstands the dynamics of the disease in the U.S. They are still taking the number of diagnosed HCV patients, subtracting the number treated, and using the remainder as the assumed target population. They overlook the fact that we are in the midst of an epidemic of heroin use, which has greatly increased the rate of infection. And most of these are younger people who do not even realize that they are infected.

  • Reply to

    GILD has seen it's 52 week high.

    by stckpkr7000 Jul 29, 2015 2:25 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 30, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    As I was saying. The institutional buyers - who are the only ones who count - can wait for the retail investors to depart. (In this case, all those who were " disappointed" in blowout earnings and a lousy 2.4% one day return. ) The same thing is happening with FB today: Those who expect a huge immediate runup on the earnings get discouraged and leave; their place is taken by the longer term investors.

  • Reply to

    GILD has seen it's 52 week high.

    by stckpkr7000 Jul 29, 2015 2:25 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jul 29, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    Not necessarily so. Unfortunately, the only people who HAVE to buy on a day like this are the shorts -- and there are obviously too few of them to squeeze. No large institution runs into an upside earnings report with fistfuls of cash. I have bought shares here between 115.40 and 116. This should continue to trend up in future sessions.