No reason for anyone with a modicum of sense to linger here. Have at it, loonies!
Personally, I think IBD is a tip sheet for retail investors not given to thoughtful or detailed analysis. I would tend to rely on the more thorough analysis provided by the Credit-Suisse or Goldman-Sachs analysts. You don't cite the publication date of the quoted excerpt, but these issues were raised a few weeks ago at the time of the ASH presentations. First, I'd note that the approval for MCL ahead CLL was not "unexpected". The fact is, there is really no other drug available that works for MCL patient, whereas CL patients have Rituxan and some other options.. Dr. Treon's presentation of ibrutinib in Waldenstrom's, another target for ibrutinib, was voted "Best of ASH" and given a featured place in the program, so approval for this indication, which was also "fasttracked" by the FDA, should be forthcoming. The idelalasib trials are in a much earlier stage than ibrutinib's and the results, while impressive, still seem weaker to most of us than ibrutinib's. The Inifnity drug, IPI-145, is in the middle of a small phase 1 study (only 27 patients evaluable at the time the preliminary data were presented at ASH), and to my inexpert eyes, the results look weaker than ibrutinib's, particularly in patients with the 17p deletion. ( I graduated from college before statistics was a required subject, so anything I say in this area is of dubious value.) However, there is often a predictable falloff in enthusiasm among retail investors who get tired of waiting for the big runup and assume the worst. ("They must know something.")
While you're gazing intently at those charts, you should be aware that the ASCO GU abstracts, which will feature results of Xtandi's crucial PREVAIL trial, will be released at 5pm EST Tuesday. It would be extremely hazardous to be short this stock ahead of this event IMHO.
Merry Christmas to questinator, flythunderbird, big, shaggy, and all the other old Ford longs. I don't think that Mulally is any longer that big a factor. Besides, if he is even considerin walking into that MSFT meatgrinder at age 68, he's not as smart as I thought.
We will see by this time tomorrow.
The court did not uphold the patent of ARN509. They dismissed the suit for fraud; the patent issues have not come to trial yet.
According to their new 13-f, Baker Brothers Advisors, the premiere healthcare fund, is still holding 8.7 million shares of PCYC, their largest holding, constituting 13% of their portfolio. They sold 290,000 shares during the quarter, I assume to rebalance. Their second largest holding is now INCY, at 12.35% of their portfolio.
Yes, you and a lot of others were expecting a huge spike on an absolutely predictable event. (Witness that big clump of Feb150 calls.) It never happens. Huge spikes come on unpredictable events. You now have a choice whether to hold this as a long term investment or to sell and take a smallish short term gain. Ibrutinib has potential applications beyond CLL. And many of us believe that it will be adopted relatively quickly by oncologists. But I'd say that, given your nervousness, you will probably sell here. I'd wait a few days, though. This level should act more like a floor than a top, and I think the stock will migrate up toward 145 by options expiration.
We should note that virtually all of the income was from various milestone payments. Sales of ibrutinib in the final quarter of 2013 accounted for only $13.6 million of revenue, presumably from prescriptions for MCL. Nevertheless, these guys aren't going to need any secondary offerings. They should now have all the cash they need to run new trials.
The Janssen division of JNJ is focused on oncology drugs. They have Doxil for ovarian cancer and multiple myeloma, Procrit for anemia in chemo patients, Zytiga for prostate cancer, and, of course, Imbruvica for MCL and CLL. In fact, almost all of JNJ's growth is coming from this division.
Here we se the masochistic Dendreonites, not content with their investment in a stock which has fallen from over 50 to 2.66 (and lost almost 2/3 of its value over the past year) shorting MDVN in order to intensify the pain.
The entire biotech sector is topping out for a while, as witness the bellwethers, GILD and CELG. PCYC is being sold into strength. This is not dumping, but a disciplined lightening up of positions on the part of larger holders. Paradoxically, this tends to make the stock fade on days when the markets are rallying. We now wait for news of either strong Imbruvica sales or a pending acquisition.
If you put up the 2-year version of Yahoo!'s "basic chart" for Ford, and then use the "compare" feature to overlay GM's relative performance, you will see something interesting: Over that period, G M has consistently outperformed F by a fairly regular margin. About 3 months ago, the margin was narrowing, and then it abruptly widened, with F dropping while GM surged. I suppose you could attribute this to the positive of the government's exit on one hand and the negative of the Mulally departure on the other. Puzzling, though. F seems to me to be the much stronger company.
The key conclusions are: (1) "Ibrutinib remains the most active drug in CLL, and a potential backbone replacing chemo (bendamustine or chlorambucil) or Rituxan or both in higher risk or elderly CLL." and (2) "We remain positive on PCYC though execution risk is high, Sentiment will largely depend on the upcoming RESONATE trial (Jan 2014) and approval in CLL (Feb 2014)."
This is excerpted from a very detailed and interesting report which examines all of the alternative drugs and trials. Key points are that there are various combo treatments which could provide competition for PCYC. For example, since Roche already owns Rituxan, they could combine one of their inhibitor candidates in a single infusion. They also point out that the oncologist community is used to treating CLL with Rituxan infusions, and that transitioning to an all-oral treatment might be economically unattractive to them. However, the fact remains that ibrutinib is the simplest, least toxic first line treatment for elderly patients ... and the vast majority of CLL patients are elderly. So, for all of those who expected the ASH presentations to be a watershed, these were largely smaller scale studies examining some ancillary issues (effectiveness in various genotypes, combo therapies, etc.) The release of the RESONATE results in January are the main event.
If you bought this anytime this year, you have an unrealized short term profit of between 100 and 200%. If you sell here, you will pay a lot of taxes. In my case, between California and Federal taxes plus the medicare surcharge, about 50% of my profits. Most of us would rather continue to play with the house's money.
PS Aren't you the poster who continually changes your id, but whose posts are always full of obscenities and fantasies of anal rape? With a little soupcon of anti-Semitism thrown in? Forget what I said. Double up here.
jgm, you are the voice of reason (and you know how far that will get you.) Anyway, thanks again for your presence here.
The problem with Provenge - which obviously the market has figured out a long time ago - is that it is not a drug at all, but a custom-made vaccine which is very expensive to create and only marginally beneficial to a few.
Given California tax laws, it makes sense to exercise options when they get into the money. I don't know what took him this long. There are plenty more where those came from.