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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 401 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 24, 2015 12:21 AM Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Jan 21, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    Deutsche Bank maintained Buy rating on Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) with a price target of $125. Analyst Robyn Karnauskas thinks 2015 HCV consensus seems $1 billion high if it issues guidance on its Q4 call.
    "The key question GILD investors are asking is whether or not their 2015 revenue guidance will be lower than consensus. The focus in HCV is on 1) how big is the discount, 2) How big will Europe be in 2015 & 3) US patient volume in 2015. According to our calcs, if the company guides, the HCV guidance could be ~$1B lower than the consensus primarily driven by US," said Karnauskas.
    "We believe the avg. discount is less than what PBMs are telegraphing. At worst case, we expect discounts in commercial channels to be 15% for Harvoni (5% Sovaldi) which coupled w/ Govt. discounts (40% Harvoni, 30% Sovaldi) calculates to ~22% overall discount for HCV franchise," continued the analyst.
    "In DB-models we are modeling an aggressive 30% discount and see 15 US HCV sales at ~$2.5B lower vs. cons. If guidance comes ~$2.5B lower that would validate what PBMs are telegraphing regarding discounts," she added. "Last week during an analyst event, the co remained non-committal on whether they will provide guidance for HCV during 4Q call. We highlight that the co did not provide HCV guidance in 14 until 2H. We believe the stock could be weak if the co does not provide guidance. Given the competitive nature of biz and high visibility into volumes, the co may not give 2015 guidance to avoid the disclosure of discounts."
    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Gilead Sciences click here. For more ratings news on Gilead Sciences click here.
    Shares of Gilead Sciences closed at $103.78 yesterday.
    NOTE: This seems muddled to me. But I note that the consensus estimates for this quarter are dropping from 2.30 90 days ago to 2.19 now. (No, I'm not short, but as of today, out.) Now let's see those thumbs down.

  • I am amused (and amazed) by stocks like ACHN, which jumped 19% today on the news of a phase II trial with 12 patients which produced the startling news that their drug, when combined with Sovaldi, seemed to dramatically reduce the HepC viral load in these patients. Now, although I am a simpleton in these matters, I have the rough idea that you could combine Sovaldi with apple juice or breath mints and get similar results. I also harbor the belief that a phase II trial with 12 patients doesn't put you anywhere close to approval. It also seems evident to me that before any of these companies trumpeted as "the next Gilead" has a product, Gilead will have a combo drug which will effectively cure all of the HepC genotypes. In fact, before any of these companies has the chance to make a nickel out of a HepC drug, Gilead will have effectively wiped it out and moved on to something else.

  • ...or they will overwhelm the board with their rantings. And, at all costs, resist the temptation to deate them. They are like a virus which eventually destroys all rational discussion.

  • Reply to

    THE ALL MIGHTY SOAP BOX!

    by traderrook Dec 5, 2014 6:49 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Dec 5, 2014 7:20 PM Flag

    I think a lot of people were waiting for a signal that the selling had stopped and the JPM note provided that signal. Cramer, as usual, was just running with the trend. If he'd made his remarks yesterday, I would be impressed. And frankly, I don't think he has the credibility to move a stock this big. He made his now tarnished reputation during the tech craze when he would pump some tiny small cap stock after hours and it would jump two points immediately. The Bear Stearns debacle destroyed his credibility for most. Lately, he was cheerleading the ebola hysteria and warning everyone away from airlines, cruise lines, etc. at precisely the moment you should have been buying them. A week or so later, after they'd made huge gains, he did a 180. Let's face it, if you met this wildeyed babbling guy in a bus terminal,you'd assume that he was on speed.

  • Reply to

    Its More Complicated than Pricing

    by bagholder54 Nov 13, 2014 3:03 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Nov 14, 2014 12:42 AM Flag

    Perhaps the most interesting post I've seen here. I will read it again and try to understand it more thoroughly.

  • They were buying heavily at just under 107, so you knew it was going to close no lower than that. I added 500 shares just under there and put in an order for another 100 at 106.54, which, to my surprise, filled. Sold them back 500 at the close and kept the other 500. Also added 300 in my wife's account at just above 107.
    I hope that they have now rebuilt their inventory and will open this at 108 tomorrow.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Dec 22, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    I have always thought that the people who are running Gilead are smart. But this fiasco is giving me pause. If they were really going to face down ESRX, they should have signaled this earlier, which would have given ABBV the leverage to extract a higher price. Not having done so, they had to know that this deal was already made. The fact that ABBV was spending millions on HepC advertising months ago was a clue to some of us.
    So $20 billion or so of stockholders' equity evaporates and they are mute.
    If you are headed into the playoffs and a good starting pitcher is available, you take him and pay the price -- whether you need him or not, just to keep your opponents from getting him. Not to make a deal with ESRX was a costly and stupid mistake.

  • Irrelevant political tripe of all persuasions is the bane of these boards.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Nov 3, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    No one believes that the ABBV drug is a serious threat. The large holders love to wobble it between the key option points, selling calls which will expire out of the money, or, in this case, puts which will expire out of the money. One day they sell you hope, the next day they sell you fear. Today, as one can gather from the posts here, they were selling fear -- and some poor souls were buying.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Nov 20, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    This calls to mind the ancient joke about the kid who is given two $10 bills by his mother and told to pick up her regular $20 prescription at the pharmacy. The kid, who has a larcenous steak, pockets one of the bills and folds the other one up. He passes the folded bill to the pharmacist, snatches the bottle of pills and runs for the door. When the pharmacist realizes that he only has $10, he calls out, "Don't run, kid - I still made nine bucks!"

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Nov 22, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    To the degree that insurers try to limit the availability of Sovaldi/Harvoni to the most serious cases, it seems to me that they are cutting off their noses to spite their face. There are two groups of HepC patients in the US (1) The older, shrinking group who contracted the disease through blood transfusions in the '80's, and (2) The younger, growing group who contract the disease through dirty needles, tattooing, etc. If you only treat the most advanced cases, you do very little to shrink the latter group. In fact, you are, in effect, "farming" advanced HepC cases as members of this group progress to later stages of he disease. As an insurer focused on short term profits, perhaps this is justifiable. But as a matter of national health policy, it makes more sense to attack the disease at its reservoirs in prisons, drug treatment centers, etc. and essentially wipe it out.

  • Will someone at Goldman-Sachs shake the GILD analyst and see if he/she is still alive? I have the uneasy feeling that he/she has been slumped over his/her desk for the past year in a state which has been misinterpreted as mental exhaustion but is actually rigor mortis. I note that on February 5 of this year (just 2 weeks before the big biotech selloff) Goldman raised its price target on GILD from 75 to 82. The stock was selling at 78 that day, but proceeded to slide (along with the entire biotech sector) to a low of 64.81 on April 10. So, at this point, if you bought on the strength of Goldman's upgrade, you are down more than 13 points.
    As the biotechs were starting to recover, Goldman again displayed their acute sense of timing by downgrading GILD on April 14, cutting their price target from 77 to 68. The stock closed that day at 66.79, but proceeded to march up to an alltime high of 116.83 on October 31. Now, along with the 13 points you lost by listening to Goldman in February, you have missed another 50 points of gain. If you had disbelieved Goldman and sold when they were counseling you to buy and bought when they were counseling you to sell, you would have had a two-bagger over 9 months.
    Perhaps they were delivering the bonus check to their GILD analyst and, after stuffing it into his/her gaping mouth, and noticing the unmistakable odor of decaying flesh, suspended their coverage of GILD. Or perhaps they're going for the hat trick.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Dec 30, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    Well, I hope that your investment in GILD is profitable, but the fact that this virus is no longer infecting you is more valuable. There are hundreds of thousands of HIV+ individuals who are alive and healthy thanks to this company and their brilliant scientists. I don't care whether they make $12 billion or a buck, ..they're a great company.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Jan 15, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    The goldman Sachs analyst downgraded JNJ this morning, citing increasing competition for several of their drugs. In addition to Olysio being hurt by the new Gilead HepC drugs, she mentioned that "Zytiga is being increasingly constrained by Xtandi". Since I assume that Goldman has access to IMS, all the other script numbers and multiple proprietary sources, I take this as confirmation that Xtandi is continuing to grab market share.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Nov 7, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    We have resumed our upward track after last week's falloff: TRx 1240, NRx 434, +17.7% and +25% w/w respectively.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 28, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    No, those people are relatively happy. It's those who bought the put options who are masquerading as distraught longs.

  • PCYC also had an excellent quarter and had a brief runup AH. After which some retail investors, disappointed that the institutions did not jump in and bid madly for their few lousy shares, sold it off. But yesterday 5 different investment houses raised their price targets and today it went up 7 bucks. If, along with the unwashed, you had been disappointed that it did not immediately jump on the good quarter and had sold your shares, you'd feel like a fool today. Remember, the investment houses are patient. They do not say, "Ohmigod, I have to grab those 500 shares of MDVN at any price!" and jump into the AH.

  • Reply to

    If we crack the 108.97 level

    by sr.cosa Nov 4, 2014 10:34 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Nov 4, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    If we move appreciably lower, I and many others have buy orders waiting. Which is probably why it won't get there. The MM's are happy to sell you worthless puts, but they are reluctant to sell you stock at bargain prices.

  • Reply to

    Why are options getting hammered?

    by valuemonkey Nov 3, 2014 12:00 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Nov 3, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    Perhaps they were wildly overpriced in anticipation of a major rally on earnings and are only now being repriced more realistically.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Nov 13, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    Believing that when they dunk it hard in the morning, they will buy it back slowly during the day. A couple of my GTC buy orders filled, and I have now rebuilt my IRA position at an average price of 108.06. Got my last lot @ 103.80. I also added some shares to the taxable accounts, since I think that this will be higher ahead of IMS#'s. So far, so good.

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