Well, when you first bought GILD they weren't dominant in HIV treatment yet, much less HCV. The expectation is that they will eventually use their anti-viral expertise to cure other diseases.
Well, if you've held GILD for 15 years, you should have a happy retirement. Good for you. Everyone thinks that this stock has just climbed and climbed, but looking back, there were long periods where it just sat there or even drifted down.
Well, if Credit-Suisse's projections are right, there's going to a be lot of competition and the price of treatment should be coming down. Ultimately, this is a communicable disease for which jails and prisons are the reservoir. These folks aren't hard to find. If you address it there, you can stop transmission and eventually come close to eradicating the disease. .
One of my maxims is that when you are worried about a position, sell half and worry half as much.
I have no idea where the bottom is. I suspect that it's substantially lower. The large holders will no doubt launch some kind of a defense again Monday.
PS GILD is a large part of the IBB - about 8%, I believe. Yesterday, the IBB was rallying strongly, but on a percentage basis, GILD rallied much less strongly. Today, the IBB fell, but on a percentage basis, GILD fell almost twice as much.
The Credit Suisse downgrade - or, more importantly the greatly reduced projections within that downgrade - had the stock dropping hard in the opening minutes. And, as I tried to explain yesterday, the large holders reacted predictably by driving the stock back up quickly. I know this was met by disbelief yesterday, but when you can't sell your stock to anyone else, you can sell it to the shorts. You just drive the price up quickly before they have the chance to move their stops, and presto - they're buying your shares. In fact, while a defended stock is in a strong downtrend, you will see this happen repeatedly, with the stock being spiked up above the trend line briefly to take out the stops of the shorts. Which is one reason why I never use tight stops on a short position that's working. Naturally, the optimists here interpreted this sudden snapback to signal that the downgrade was meaningless. Some undoubtedly thought the stock was rallying and added more shares. As yesterday, they defended the stock at 97.50.
As I posted yesterday to wide derision, the large holders are fighting hard to create exit points for themselves and, in the process, holding the door open for the retail investor to exit as well. The Titanic is going down, and the first class passengers are slipping over the side in the lifeboats. Meanwhile, down in steerage, everyone is playing pinochle.
Well, this might be the most interesting rationalization yet: The company purposely issues dishonest guidance in order to tank their own stock, thereby enabling them to buy it back cheaper. And they spend billions of dollars on dividends just to put up a smokescreen.
But when I asked you to cite specific instances where I'd done those things, you simply reiterate the accusation. I don't doubt that I've been annoying to many here - the thumbs down demonstrate that - but I have never stooped to insults or abuse.
Well, I think if they had kept their war chest for acquisitions instead of spending it on dividends and buybacks, the markets might have liked it better.
If I remember correctly, Credit-Suisse put some new analysts on GILD a couple of months ago. Until now, they have been consistently bullish on GILD, with estimates above consensus. The new estimates are dramatically below consensus and contemplate not only greatly diminished revenues( e.g. $11.78B in 2017 vs the prior estimate of $15B), but a gradual erosion of the HCV market share from 80% in 2015 to 60% by 2019.
I have no illusions that anything I can say will influence the price of the stock. "Scare tactics" on a Yahoo! Stock board would be the equivalent of shouting "Fire!" in an empty theater.
I have had one theme: That it is risky to be overweighted in this stock. I have never rubbed anyone's nose in anything and I have never stooped to personal insults. If you can find a single instance where I have indulged in name calling, insults, "i told you so", or anything of that nature, cite them and I will apologize. At the same time, I have been called "clown", "idiot", "moron", "paid shill", and some obscenities artfully constructed to pass the Yahoo! censors. All of which I have borne with my customary good humor. I have also tried to provide a rationale for my viewpoint, rather than simply posting "THIS POS GOING TO 20!!!", which is the norm and doesn't seem to generate lectures about dignity and style.
Calling my post "a pretty dumb analysis" - even if there is no rebuttal - strikes me as one of the more courteous replies. Thank you, joeybugs.
By calling me "an idiot", you have garnered 7 thumbs ups. In my long tenure on these boards, I have never called anyone "an idiot", "moron", "cretin", etc. You should consider whether you really want to play for this cheap applause.