Yep, I'll bet Paulson doubled up on VRX, too. A visionary. Perhaps you can explain why IRWD, the company which SGYP is destined to destroy, seems to be trending up?
Yep, Baker Brothers added an astounding 67,100 shares ( a lot less than some of you apparently hold) to go with their massive 169,000 shares of IRWD. At the same time, Orbimed Advisors, sold 27% of their SGYP holdings, to bring their stake down to 2,276,648 shares. They also sold 9% of their IRWD position to bring them down to 11,226,400 shares. Cutting through the mindless cheerleading here, let's tell the truth: Neither one of these companies is going to be acquired for a huge multiple. They're selling a cheap laxative. (Or, in the case of SGYP, hoping to sell a cheap laxative.) And, while none of the major pharma funds seem interested in either company, they are not infallible. I note that while BB lightened up a bit on DYAX before the buyout ( I did, too) they apparently also bought a big convertible bond for CLVS, representing some 129 million shares. Not a great day for that one.
Coincidentally, I also participated in the plectanatide trials, and even though it was supposed to be a double blind study, I peeked. I was apparently enrolled in the placebo arm, and I saw the technician refilling my prescription from a bottle labeled "Sunsweet". This no doubt explains why the placebo has proven so extraordinarily effective in relieving constipation. In the waiting area, there were bowls filled with what seemed to be little squares of chocolate. I left these alone since I had noticed that those who partook were soon begging the receptionist for the key to the restroom. I suspect that the entire trial was a hoax. I know that I signed a nondisclosure agreement, but I just couldn't help sharing this. Blabby old me.
I had posited that Paulson had dumped his stake in SGYP. Nope. According to his just-released 13f, in the third quarter he ADDED 3.218 million shares, bringing his total holdings to 9,000,000 shares. This is an interesting footnote to one of the most disastrous quarters in hedge fund history. He stood pat on VRX, losing another $1 billion on that stock alone. His major addition in the pharma area seems to have been Perrigo, on which he lost $54 million today.
Not so long ago, it only bought you 1 and 1/10'th of a share. Strange, eh?
Boy, I have all of indiansfan's id's working overtime. Just the observation that a share of SGYP is now worth 1/2 a share of IRWD, has called them all to general quarters.
The spelling is immaterial. It's more important to understand the concept: The Trojans were so gullible that -even though they were besieged and trapped - they believed that the Athenians would suddenly give up and go home, leaving them a swell present, to boot. This is akin to the belief that even though SGYP has continued to fall, Something Wonderful is about to happen. Everyone else is oblivious to this fact. So even though since July 30, the IBB has dropped 14%, SGYP has dropped 36% and IRWD has risen 15%, SGYP is about to be bought out for a fabulous multiple. Even though IRWD, which is 4 years ahead of SGYP, has yet to make a profit. And, in fact, has accumulated operating losses in excess of $1 billion. Yep, everyone wants a piece of that action. That big wooden horse is actually a mega piñata.
RBC resumes coverage with an "outperform" rating and a price target of 32. DA Davidson initiates coverage with a "buy" rating and price target of 34.
When we started our little conversation on 7/30, IRWD opened at 10.46 and SGYP at 9.35. This trend is puzzling since, as everyone here knows, SGYP is about to put IRWD out of business.
I would respectfully disagree. I think the VRX collapse introduces a new element of risk for these stocks, and that until the issue is clarified, the stocks will be repriced lower.
Are you drunk, too? When one of your alter egos, "aka-advisor-is-in-china" demanded to know what stocks I owned about a month ago, I told him. Among other things, I mentioned that I held a large position in RAD, expecting it to be bought out by either CVS or WAGB. This happened within days. I also mentioned that I was accumulating DYAX since it looked strong. It was also bought out. Further, I mentioned my faith in OTIC, despite its recent weakness. It has rallied by about 50% over the past week. Aside from sitting on your withering pile of SGYP and posting incoherently, what have you been doing?
As the acknowledged leader of the longs here, I should think that your followers were expecting a more cogent rebuttal.
This actually underperformed the IBB today, in contrast to its recent relative strength. I think that until they can prove to everyone that they do not have sweetheart deals with specialty pharmacies, as did VRX, they will continue to be weak. Until then, everyone with expensive drugs will be suspect.
Well, I hate to beat a dead horse, but John's positions in pharma stocks - with a particular concentration in offshore pharma stocks - seems to have cost him another quarter of a billion or so today. AGN, which has been bulletproof to this point, finally started to get hit. I even sold out most of my position in GILD yesterday, because it seems to me that anyone who sells expensive drugs is possibly exposed to reimbursement issues with "specialty pharmacies". Fortunately, none of this applies to cheap laxatives. (Most of those Linzess users get a coupon which limits their monthly co-pay to $30. This ain't cancer, folks; it's constipation.)
Because since 7/30, when this touched 9.76, no one has gotten hurt shorting this stock. This explains why, even though the reported short position is fairly static. the number of days to cover has doubled from 9/30 to 10/30. And why, when I made my one experimental attempt to short 1,000 shares as it brushed 6.80 recently, there were no shares available. They'd all been lent out. Conversely, since 7/30 no one has made any money being long this stock. (Chorus of daytraders: " I'VE made a TON of money! I always buy at the bottom and sell at the top!") Possible, but unlikely. But if you've held the stock long over this period, you've lost over 35% of your investment. And it's a lot easier to make money as a daytrader if you're shorting a stock which is dropping, rather than going long that stock. The other curious fact is that IRWD, the stock which is destined to be destroyed by SGYP, has actually gone up about 10% since 7/30. Even though the short ratio there is virtually identical to SGYP's. It would make one wonder. The other puzzle: Why do the cheerleaders for the longs here, who encourage the foolish preoccupation with shorts, never mention the one way available to fight back: Put a GTC (good 'til cancelled) sell order on your position at some ridiculous price. For example, Indiansfan, who claims to own more than 500,000 shares, could put a sell order in at 50. This would remove this huge block of shares from the hands of the shorts, since they could no longer be lent out. (I'm assuming he has a margin account; he will probably now pop up to swear that he doesn't.)
..seems to have cast a shadow over all the high-priced drugs. When this failed to bounce yesterday, I started to back out. Strange that with all the highly paid analysts who work these drugs it took an oddball shortseller to raise the whole subject of "specialty pharmacies" and their role in the reimbursement process.