Note that you are posting to the very rational sr.cosa, but using the id created by his insane alter ego to annoy us all, sr_cosa.
Well, I was way off on the price, but close on the volume. Over 930,000 shares reported (not traded) after hours @ 99.61. Makes you think that this was GILD buying back their own stock at a prearranged price. They obviously could have picked it up cheaper on the open market today.
Unfortunately, as the stock continues to drop on low volume, it also means no buyers even at the lower price. Today's volume looks like the lowest yet. However, let's watch and see a million shares or so cross at 89.10 at the close.
I would say that biotech stocks - particularly those with strong international business - are hurt a lot more by the strong dollar than by cheap oil. If you had $2.5 billion in European revenues a few weeks ago, it has magically become $2.1 billion.
How is Riceen so consistently wrong? He advised everyone to sell PCYC a couple of weeks back. And he was plugging ACAD Tuesday. The guy is a jinx.
Just a reminder that ICPT is a lot more volatile than GILD. From March 14 of last year to Dec. 11, ICPT went from 485 to 137 on Dec. 11. (a loss of 72%) During that same time frame, GILD went from 75 to 104. (a gain of more than 38%) When a fast-running stock like ICPT flatlines on a day like today, I'd say it was being shorted into strength. You may give back some of those 48 points soon.
We should note that GILD recently licensed a BTK inhibitor from ONO. Imbruvica is BTK inhibitor. Two can play at this game. The problem is that the major pharmas are now setting up to not only create different but parallel drugs - they are also getting into the biosimilar business. We're going to see some serious competition in this busainess over the coming years.
Yes, the great sage really made his fortune in an age of unregulated freebooting. I never heard the "Bet-A-Million-Gates" story.
I really think the legends about people who made a fortune by putting all of their money in one stock - Polaroid, Xerox, IBM, DEC, Apple, Gilead, etc, - skew our perceptions. The corollary would be the much greater number of people who put all of their money in one stock and lost it all. It has been proven to my satisfaction that you need 30-40 stocks in your portfolio to offset the risk of any one stock tanking. There are categories of stocks which one should probably avoid at given times - commodities at the moment, for example. And there are categories which one should be overweight in at given times. The last few years have been a great time to be overweight biotechs. But in general, there's nothing wrong with owning what you think is the best bank, the best auto company, the best high tech company, the best transport, the best retailer, etc. in addition to the best biotech.
I have always thought that the announcement of the dividend and the stock buyback was a mistake because it said, in effect, "We don't know what to do with all this money. (Besides, if we need it, we can borrow more.)" I think it would have been better if we all knew that they had a huge cash hoard and were waiting to spring on the next Pharmasset. (We should remember that when they bought Pharmasset, it was widely seen as a blunder and the stock dropped about ten points.) None of us bought this stock for a 2% dividend and the prospect of a stock price stabilized by buybacks.
We bought it because we thought these were the smartest guys in the room with a lot of new tricks up their sleeve.
Seriously, though, I think you should buy stocks with some kind of scenario in mind: GILD - the profits from Harvoni will be huge and the stock will quickly advance past 120. BABA - This will be the Chinese Amazon - only 5 times as big because they have 5 times as many people. GoPro - everyone will have one of these cameras strapped to their forehead soon. I believed in the GILD scenario, but thought the retail enthusiasm was a little unrealistic. I bailed when I heard that the operative discount was 46%. I never trusted BABA, figuring "If this is such a terrific company, why are the Chinese selling it all to us?" I also doubted GoPro because not being an 18 year old reckless snowboarder, I can't imagine anyone wanting to watch me walk from the livingroom into the kitchen. ("Wow! He missed the coffee table!") So you buy things with a scenario in mind, and when the scenario is disproved, you don't concoct a new scenario, you bail.
I think akaadvisor just wanted to get up in the morning, turn on CNBC, and see his three stocks cross the ticker first.
Here's why I don't buy today's action: Barclay's, Wells Fargo, JPM, BofA/Merrill, RBC, and the geniuses at Goldman-Sachs all put their collective overpaid heads together and decide that this secondary offering is worth 26.75 a share. This must have involved a lot of abstruse calculations about debt ratios, cash flow, depreciation, etc... stuff we mere mortals aren't capable of. Then this morning IN THE PREMARKET, blocks start to cross at a couple of bucks below that. Because some mere mortal has figured out that the geniuses have added it all up wrong? And before the rest of the world gets wise, they're bailing! The stock then proceeds to trade almost 7 million shares - 28 times normal volume - without ever getting above that level. The incompetent investment bankers are courageously defending the stock and the stockholders are fleeing for the exits.
Naah. Did you sell shares today? I bought 2,500 more and sold 500. Because I think it's all phony trading - just those guys passing the shares back and forth. And this will, in the near future, be back at 26.75 where the big guys bought it.
Only that Cowen put the price target @ 55 and said that the ear drug for infants could "create significant value".
You should recall that the price dropped sharply at each of the two last earnings reports. And the first of those reports was an upside blowout.
But the relatively strong volume in other pharmas demonstrates that the stock was changing hands - being both bought and sold. The fact that GILD's volume remains relatively low suggests that we have few buyers. Perhaps we have more weak hands than others. This stock needs to rally on heavy volume.