By the way, it was not you, but indiansfan whom I challenged to short IRWD. Is it possible that you are the same person? How shocking! That would mean that there are multiple identities in use on this board!
Not understanding your somewhat garbled post. Did you or did you not short IRWD?
The relative weakness of institutional support for SGYP is further demonstrated by the fact that their 15 largest holders account for 40% of the stock outstanding. The 15 largest holders of IRWD account for 91% of the shares outstanding. As I have observed before, I don't place a great deal of importance on either the Vanguard or Blackrock holdings, since they own virtually all stocks via their various index funds.
Those are, oddly enough, the same figures as of 9/30. The new filing shows an amalgamated Blackrock position of 8,314,000 Perhaps the extra 69,000 shares are distributed among smaller Blackrock entities. Those same three larger Blackrock entities held 9,216,000 shares of IRWD on 9/30. The new filing shows an amalgamated holding of 9,445,000 shares.
PS "Twaddle" is not a variation of "waddle". Twaddle is what you post.
It's amazing how the gullible accept this nonsense about this stock being heavily owned by institutions. The "institutional ownership" of 56% cited from the NASDAQ website is, in fact, unusually low. NSDAQ lists institutional ownership of IRWD as more than 110%. This is possible because the NASDAQ figures amalgamate both long and short positions. So, since we all know that SGYP is under constant attack by shorts, the actual long institutional position is considerably lower than 56%. Stocks with this low a percentage are hard to find. Since shares held in margin accounts are listed as institutional holdings, a low average is usually the mark of either very large insider holdings or, as in this case, a stock held mostly by smaller retail investors in cash accounts.
One of the interesting thing about drug company buyouts is that a lot of the appreciation in stock price happens in the open markets immediately BEFORE the buyout. The attractiveness of the company and its assets, in other words, does not often go unnoticed. And the stock is accumulated, which naturally moves the price up. A company on the brink of being acquired does not often have its stock drop 62% over 6 months.
So who else, other than Vanguard via the index funds, owns this now? What happened to the Blackrock stake? They've filed their 13G for IRWD - shouldn't they have filed one for SGYP by now? We will soon see.
Very telling and cogent rebuttal, as usual. However, the 13G/A forms filed in the past couple of days begin to show how weak the institutional ownership of SGYP is. 13G/A's for IRWD to date show FMR(Fidelity) holding 15.25%, Wellington Management holding 14%, Stephen A. Cohen (via Point 72 and Everpoint) holding 7.4%, T. Rowe Price holding 5.1%, Blackrock holding 7.4%,and Vanguard holding 6.93%. So these 6 major entities hold more than 56% of IRWD - more than the entire institutional ownership of SGYP. The only 13G/A's filed for SGYP to date are Vanguard holding 5.79% and Polygon Management holding 6.9% (in the form of a convertible).
"still"? Those are obviously the positions as of the end of last September. Tuesday we should see the positions as of the end of December.
Okay, but if, in your view, the downside is 10 and the upside is 15 with a 17.7% dividend, I'd argue that you take the upside bet right here.
Or, look at it this way: If earnings don't fall out of bed and this is15 by the end of the year, you wil have made 33% on your money.
Look at this way: If they cut the dividend in half (they have said that they're going to maintain it at current levels recently) you'd be making 10%on your money.
Yes, we know some things: (1) The BOD has said recently that they expect to maintain the distribution at current levels.(2) The price of their key products does not decline proportionately to the price of crude oil. (3) If (1) is true, the chance of a 20% return in a declining interest rate environment is attractive.
Personally, I think there's a lot more risk in being short going into earnings than being long. We will see.
This is now priced for halving or suspension of the dividend, which we know is not happening. Or for a major shrinkage in the coverage ratio, which I think is also not happening. We will soon find out.
C'mon, Indiansfan, construct a giant imaginary short position in IRWD to go with your imaginary long position in SGYP! Or I'll construct one for you.
This is a singularly undiscriminating fund - more like an index fund of everything. Yes, they did pick up 53,544 shares of SGYP, listed as worth $305,000 (but worth more like $200,000 now). They are so undiscriminating in fact, that they picked up 20,833 shares of IRWD to bring their total holding to 59,211 shares, listed as worth $701,000, but worth more like $540,000 now.
Wow! With his 500,000 imaginary shares, indiansfan is much more important than this pipsqueak. And itsahorserace, with his 130,000 REAL shares puts him in the shade.