I think that it will take something new to reignite real enthusiasm: The possibility of a major new drug, an opportunistic acquisition, etc.
Some of my early stage biotech stocks are down almost 10% today. At this point, the IBB is down 3.75%. GILD's relatively good performance supports my contention that it is now seen as a value stock rather than a growth stock. (It's behaving a lot more like JNJ than REGN.)
My congratulations for winning the "thumbs down" trophy. Only in my most contrarian phase could I even have dreamed of garnering 79. (The Smithfield Farms pop-up ad on the ISIS site only got 68.) By the way, the whole tired ABBV vs GILD debate is over. Merck and Boehringer-Ingelheim are much more formidable competitors. And the question is not whether ABBV will be a factor (they won't) but whether GILD can find something worthwhile to do with all thatcash.
However, all the relevant sources show that the short interest is small and not growing. In fact, the short interest, far from being "through the roof" is a about half what it was last year at this time.
Chuckcap, you're very right. It's sometimes difficult to explain to small children, but you can have the hamburger OR the hotdog. You can have the hamburger AND the hotdog.
You are short this stock and you just had your dream scenario: CNBC opens with the news about the adverse cardiovascular events and plays it hard. And you didn't cover. There are some here who are still waiting for the big Harvoni runup, not realizing that it already happened. You are waiting for the big drop on the big increase in discounting, not realizing that it already happened. The Credit-Suisse downgrade laid out the whole thing and the stock dropped almost 10 points. The stock will now trade on the basis of very healthy cashflow and a modest dividend, with the upside of whatever is in their pipeline.
I still think that when you buy BRK you are betting on the mystique of Warren: His ability to pick undervalued companies to acquire (which is a lot easier when you're looking for small companies than when you are required to acquire giant companies) and his ability to parlay his name into deals with Goldman and others that no one else could possibly get. I think he's a great American character and an exemplary human being. However, when he recently announced that he had prostate cancer and was undergoing proton beam therapy, I decided that he was fallible. Hint: You're 83 years old. You're going to die of something else long before you die of prostate cancer. In fact, you'll probably die of proton beam therapy.
Looks like Gilead just spent another $400 million of that war chest.
According to a recent post, you are 32 years old and have just raised your position in GILD to 350 shares. Which you were contemplating selling last Thursday but now have decided that you will never sell. But from your wealth of experience and depth of conviction, you are now lecturing me. By the way, was there something about Buffett's succession plan that made you uneasy Thursday? Did 91-year-old Charlie Munger fall asleep at a board meeting? Or did Howard fall off the combine?
Okay, you and Carolyn foolishly didn't cover your short in the low 99's, and now you're trying to convince yourself that you did the right thing. When I'm short a stock and an unexpected piece of bad news (therefore good news) pops up, I always cover at least half.
GILD isn't like the other major biotech components of the IBB. This is one of those unusual days when pie is worth more than pie-in-the-sky. Besides, the company is buying back shares... apparently around 100.50 today.
Last Thursday you posted that you were contemplating selling everything. Today you are pledging undying fealty to these 2 stocks. Did you read something in the annual report that we should know about?
Why don't you jump on whatever the #1 and #2 companies are in terms of market cap and ride them to zero? By the way, if you have a clue as to the identity of Buffett's successor, you have the journalism scoop of the year.
Carolyn, for once you're right. GILD is no BRK.A. Over the past year, Berkshire is up 17.29% - just a hair more than the S&P. GILD is up 23%. At the same time, saying you will ride a stock to zero is pretty silly - particularly when neither of these stocks has any prospect of going to zero. However, even saying that you will ride a stock down is pretty foolish. It implies that, even in a falling market, these two stocks will always be the best bargain. When Buffet dies, how far will Berkshire fall? There's no sense in buying what is essentially a holding company... unless you believe in the ability of management to consistently make the right acquisitions.
Actually, over 100 people die of peanut allergies in the US each year. (One of my crackpot biotech stocks is a small position in DBVT, a French company which has developed a transdermal patch to cure nut allergies.) And by the time you get put on amiodarone, you have enough other problems that you aren't going to qualify as a subject in a trial. One of the ironies is that amiodarone itself has never been subjected to clinical trials by the FDA. It was a European drug which, at one time, was one of the few alternatives for arrhythmia and was being used off-label here in the U.S. When the FDA banned it, the manufacturer threatened to withdraw the drug from the US market and the FDA backed down, finally approving it for use without ever reviewing any trial results.
Amiodarone is a drug of last resort for arrhythmia with many unpleasant side effects. My best friend, when other arrhythmia drugs had stopped working, underwent ablation (the surgical procedure to control arrhythmia) rather than go on amiodarone. The pulmonary side effects are particularly scary. Besides, it turns you blue. (seriously) And there are some studies which call its efficacy into question.
Well, perhaps you can explain the oracular "Blocks are due to derivatives" with which she dismissed my observations. She seems disinclined to do so, and has responded with strange analogies about the price of oranges, jumbles of meaningless figures, etc. She pays so little attention that she mistakes me for some overextended GILD zealot, advises me to "do your homework", points out the startling news that the stock is off its highs, and prophesizes dire things for my portfolio. I don't think I've been rude to Carolyn, although I've been sorely tempted.