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Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 206 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 3 hours ago Flag

    Many here seem to share the quaint idea that the open short interest is a stagnant pool with "trapped shorts" floundering around desperately. The fact is, the short interest, like the long interest, is a lake with water constantly flowing in and out. For example, on the 6 trading days starting Aug 16'th, roughly 60% of the trades in this stock were short sales. That would represent around 7.6 million shares. However on the day of the big market drop, short sales declined to less than 50% of trades and during yesterday's big rally, they were only about 30% of trades. Which is to say, many of those short positions were covered. Another myth current here is that professional short traders want to beat the share price down to oblivion. This would kill the goose which lays the golden eggs. Professional short traders like to run the stock up on light volume, then hold it in place for a while until they can accumulate a new short position.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 hours ago Flag

    SP: Diarrhea.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 hours ago Flag

    PS Speaking of scared, whatever happened to "stellarresults"?

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 22 hours ago Flag

    Your fantasies continue. I would only point out that since those marvelous trial results which sent you into ecstasy were released, this stock has dropped 30%. Meanwhile Ironwood, the company which was supposed to be annihilated, is up over 5%. In the face of a 7.3% drop in the IBB. Or, what's more relevant, a 13% drop in the XBI. Watching the trading, I have concluded that one of your fantasies is partially true: Some large traders are shorting this stock heavily. However, they are not doing it to get YOUR SHARES. By the way, I haven't had a boss since 1978.

  • Reply to

    Total shares traded afterhours 325,652

    by stockguy365 Aug 25, 2015 4:35 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 25, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    Common sense would tell you that it's impossible to trade that many shares after hours without affecting the price. These trades were made in the regular session and are being reported after hours because they are either an amalgamation of many smaller trades at that price, or, more likely, are trades made in the "dark pools". There were actually 134,000 shares traded at 6.69 and another 268,000 shares traded at 6.60. They could be setting up for their secondary.

  • Reply to

    Limit order in at 9

    by indiansfan407 Aug 25, 2015 10:26 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 25, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    Indulge your fantasies on the SGYP board, where they might be taken seriously.

  • Reply to

    after hours

    by novice787 Aug 24, 2015 5:03 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 25, 2015 12:48 AM Flag

    Own a position in ACOR and was blissfully unaware of all these crosscurrents. I will look up Kyle; I am impressed by a speculator who can cloak his actions in noble themes.

  • Reply to

    John Paulson vs Steven Cohen

    by bearofbleecker Aug 25, 2015 12:26 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 25, 2015 12:39 AM Flag

    As a footnote, Cohen's Point72 fund was up over 33% for 2014. Paulson's fund was down 36%.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Aug 25, 2015 12:26 AM Flag

    Much has been made here of John Paulson's 5,781m share stake in SGYP. Someone here guesstimated that his average price was $8.32 a share. This would mean that he had had invested $48 million, which has shrunk to $39 million. Now Steven Cohen's Point72 personal hedge fun has apparently bought 6.39 million shares of Ironwood ( = $68 million at today's close). So Cohen has almost twice as much riiding on IRWD as Paulson has on SGYP. Sounds like the plectanadide trial results didn't terrify them.

  • Reply to

    Why Not Buy SGYP?

    by neckenneck Aug 22, 2015 6:23 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 23, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    Besides, I will always pick a drug company headquartered in close proximity to MIT, Harvard, and Mass. General Hospital over one headquartered in close proximity to Metro North, The Oyster Bar, and Bellevue.

  • Reply to

    why CEMP cloed just above $35?

    by stock_lurker Aug 21, 2015 7:55 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 22, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    "They" were probably a little too preoccupied Friday to worry about 1,000 puts. Options - both calls and puts - don't need intervention to kill them - they tend to kill themselves.

  • Reply to

    Why Not Buy SGYP?

    by neckenneck Aug 22, 2015 6:23 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 22, 2015 9:00 PM Flag

    Dream on. IRWD and their partners are investing major money into advertising to build a dominant position in the CIC market. In the process of bringing this drug to market, they have racked up losses of about a billion dollars. Why would they want to start that process over again? Besides, only the rosiest interpretation of the plecanatide trial would suggest that the drug is superior to Linzess. Their partisans seem to have seized on the somewhat lower incidence of diarrhea -which could easily be explained by the fact that plecanatide just doesn't work that well. Which is why the higher dose seems to work no better than the lower dose. And why both doses barely outperform the placebo. (Or as one reviewer of Linzess put it, "I have some diarrhea, but when you are suffering from constipation, that's not necessarily a bad thing.") PS: SGYP is projected to lose $150 million over the next year and a half. Everyone wants a piece of THAT action.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Aug 22, 2015 8:48 PM Flag

    Fantasies: (1) SGYP is about to be bought out at a huge premium. (The longs here know this; the market seems oblivious to this fact.) (2) The Paulson stake is significant. (Even though he hasn't had a winner since the housing crisis and none of the key pharma funds has a major stake in either SGYP or IRWD.) (3) The SGYP drug is going to take over the CIC market. (Even though it has taken IRWD, with a demonstrably superior drug, almost 3 years to overtake Amitiza ..during which time they've continued to rack up huge losses.) (3) "Institutional " holdings are a vote of confidence. (Aside from Paulson and Orbimed's hedging position, there are no major institutions in this stock.) (4) The stock will run up when "trapped shorts" capitulate. (An idea almost too silly to rebut; If they didn't capitulate at 10, why would they capitulate at 7?)
    (5) Hedge funds and shorts are driving the price down "to get YOUR SHARES cheap". (If they like the stock, why wouldn't they buy it and drive the price up?)
    Facts: (1) I ventured over to this strange fantasy world on July 30, after some of your rowdier partisans had invaded the formerly dead IRWD board crowing about the results of the clinical trial, They didn't seem that swell to me. (2) In spite of these earthshaking results, SYGYP has dropped almost 30% since that day. (3) IRWD, in spite of a more than 10% drop in the biotech indices, has actually gone up half a buck since that day. And has repeatedly made sallies into the 11.50+ area. (4) Most of the longs who populated this board at the beginning of the month have also vanished. They were smalltime gamblers who owned a few calls, all of which have now vaporized. (4.) Only a foolish person would have a major part of his/her assets tied up in one small biotech, either long or short. (5.) I will stick around here since stellarresults insulted me by calling me "desperate and stupid".

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 22, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    First of all, I'm not ron. I can't even tell smithsom and smithson apart and tell which of them is long and which is short. Since, to my regret, I haven't been short this stock, I have no plans to cover. If I had been short, I should think that a 500+ down day on the Dow would be a good time to cover any short position.
    Your list of "institutional" holdings is not impressive. The only one of consequence is Paulson, who hasn't exactly been picking a lot of winners lately. The Orbimed position is a hedging position against their much larger stake in IRWD. Since the SYG trial results haven't hurt IRWD, I suspect that they've been liquidating their SGYP position. Vanguard and Blackrock own this stock - and almost everything else in the universe - via their index funds and ETF's. Likewise Franklin. Millennium Management also owns virtually every stock in the universe - around 4,400 as of the last 13f. They are a consortium of 170 different traders all pursuing their own strategy, and the 13f filing is just a snapshot in time of 170 different trading portfolios.
    Your statement that "our stock was close to $12 a few weeks ago before desperate shorts had it yet again" is puzzling. This 52 week high on this stock was 10.15. But it's nice to see that you have supplemented your "hoopla at the convention" with the equally meaningless "he says that discussions at the Canaccord Genuity pharmaceutical with banks and doctors indicated strong sentiment that Valeant may be our suitor". These statements are the farthest thing in the world from facts.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 22, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    Some of the "facts" stellarresults has posted: "NOBODY is selling" (while the stock drops almost 30% over 3 weeks). "buyout @ $19 - 25 a share" (If anyone half believed this, the stock would be at 12.) Buyout rumors confirmed by "hoopla at the convention". (That unimpeachable source, Buzz Hoopla.)

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 22, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    The myth of "trapped shorts" is another thing this board has in common with the ARNA board circa late 2012. There is no such animal. Even if the total short interest remains fairly constant, that does not mean that it represents the same group of people, sitting there frozen from 2.35 up to 10 and down to 7. (i.e. There may be an average of 350 people on the A train at 9:30 every morning. But they are not the same 350 people, just sitting there. People are getting on and off at every stop.) If I were short this stock - which I'm not - I would not let a 500 point Dow down day pass without covering. A lot of shorts, I'm sure, did just that, which helped to hold the stock up yesterday. In fact, I believe that the little rebound back up to 7 at the close was the result of happy put holders (shorts) cashing in. The safest form of shorting, of course, is via selling calls to the true believers. Which turned out to be very profitable for them this month.

  • Reply to

    Boring day ---again for out stock

    by dave73blaine Aug 21, 2015 11:46 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 22, 2015 1:32 AM Flag

    Promise?

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 22, 2015 1:20 AM Flag

    Not as risky as some, apparently. Since July 30, when this poster was in ecstasy about the wonderful trial numbers published by Synergy, that stock has fallen from 9.60 to 7. IRWD is up half a buck, even after the big biotech dump. Yep.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Aug 21, 2015 10:36 PM Flag

    Okay, let me know when you're ready to sell. I could have had other people's shares today for 6.83. But I only want YOUR SHARES.

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