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Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 300 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker 8 hours ago Flag

    ...whom I had misidentified as an academic on the basis of his meaningless circumlocution. (e.g. "Some stocks go up and others that you expect to go up will go down. Wisdom is elusive and relative. Knowledge is imperfect and often deficient." etc.) Reading back through his posts, I find that he's an M.D. Although they are generally lousy investors, M.D.'s are an important source of information on boards such as these. So I apologize for my effrontery in guessing that the stock would move to 14 and that a secondary would be announced at about 13.80. But, Doc, if you really are "hoping that they will eke out enough revenue from sales to avoid a new offering", you're dreaming.

  • Reply to

    Intelligence wanted.

    by pkanez1488 13 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 8 hours ago Flag

    I am guessing that you are an academic. Mostly on the basis of your prior post: "Some stocks go up and others that you expect to go up will go down. Wisdom is elusive and relative. Knowledge is imperfect an often deficient..." etc. This blather has no doubt earned you tenure somewhere, but is, after all, meaningless.
    You say that "insiders own all of .59% of the shares". Poor math, but irrelevant. According to Yahoo!, the 10 top institutions own about 58% of the float and the ten top mutual funds own another 24.6%. The largest chunks are in the hands of T. Rowe Price, Baker Brothers, FMR, Blackrock, etc. You seem to think that the "50% of the 171 million shares" that were traded Monday actually changed hands. Which disregards the common knowledge that about 3/4 of the daily volume in any stock is black box trading. Daytraders pop in and out and high velocity traders frontrun their orders, creating phantom volume. The sudden appearance of many shortsellers here is testament to the flurry of trading created around a stock which almost doubles during a single session. The chart will tell you that none of the large positions are being liquidated here.
    And yes, a 20 cent discount is about the right discount for a secondary on a stock which is rallying. And yes, I am guessing that the stock will get pushed up to about 14 before the secondary is announced. These are guesses. Of course," some stocks go up and others that you expect to go up will go down. Wisdom is elusive and relative. Knowledge is imperfect and often deficient." Which is a longwinded and pompous way to say "Guess." Let's hear yours, professor.

  • Reply to

    Some lightening up here.

    by bearofbleecker Aug 20, 2014 4:08 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 11 hours ago Flag

    I don't know why this old post has been resurrected. But as long as it has, I will respond to the assertion that " when it comes to investing, there is no creation of money". Trading may be closer to a zero sum game. Investing, however, actually does create wealth. Andrew Mellon invested in the Mellon Bank, Northern Trust, Gulf Oil, Alcoa, Koppers, etc. and basically never traded asingle share. No one lost money betting against him because he never bet. Huge wealth was created.

  • Reply to

    Intelligence wanted.

    by pkanez1488 13 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 12 hours ago Flag

    You realize that by projecting all of these wonderful things as a basis for a 25-30 price, you are just offering a variation on the amateurish "To the moon!" scenario. The stock just doubled. The expectation that it will double again in the short term is unrealistic.

  • Reply to

    Intelligence wanted.

    by pkanez1488 13 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 12 hours ago Flag

    Bird in the hand. They need more capital to run trials. You are projecting a number of fortunate events. Good judgment would suggest that you issue a secondary on the heels of the current fortunate news. We will see.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker 12 hours ago Flag

    This has lost almost 25% of its value year-to-date. This company depends on the willingness of the Chinese government to transfer hundreds of billions of renminbi to a rightwing American billionaire. Good luck with that.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 12 hours ago Flag

    I obviously meant 110 or 120. I would guess that this moves closer to 110 on Monday and proceeds to 120 by the end of October.

  • Reply to

    I'M OUT, GOOD-BYE

    by iknightu 12 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 12 hours ago Flag

    Yes, invest your somewhat diminished nestegg in Alibubble.

  • Reply to

    Shorted at $12.76

    by goinlower 20 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 12 hours ago Flag

    Yes, another fantasy position - someone who has magically managed to short at the high of the day...and made an imaginary quarter a share. However, if you'd realized the potential of this drug and bought it immediately after the trial results were released, you'd have made a real 2.50 a share.

  • Reply to

    Intelligence wanted.

    by pkanez1488 13 hours ago
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 12 hours ago Flag

    Kudos for the honesty to admit that you went short and lost on that position. Few here will admit to that, even though over the last three sessions, the stock has basically moved from 10 to 12.50. Obviously, buying on the dips has been more profitable than trying to short the peaks. Here is what I think is going on here: The smart money knows that they will issue more stock; the question is, where? This particular opportunity is huge and the stock is really rather closely held. At some point, they will flatline the stock and announce a secondary offering about 20 cents below there. But I see no sign of it happening right away. The MM's will give this a good runup before the dilution. With price targets in the 15+ area, I don't see why they shouldn't let it run to 14 and announce the secondary at 13.80. The secondary underwriters will support it there, and it should settle there for a while before proceeding upward.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 12 hours ago Flag

    You can't really trade over 2 million shares at the close without moving the price rather radically. These are amalgamated trades made earlier - probably in dark pools - and reported after hours. The price - which I think was around 103.80 - is probably where it will close Friday. If not there, certainly just shy of 105. There is no mystery here. Everyone knows that when the combo therapy is approved in October, and before earnings are reported at the end of October, this will be at 10 or 120. I suspect the latter.

  • Reply to

    Secondary?

    by acad4sale Sep 16, 2014 3:39 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker 15 hours ago Flag

    When Congo was prophesizing a secondary and the stock was under 6, I asked him why the secondary couldn't happen at a substantially higher price, and surmised that the MM's would give the share price a good shove up before announcing one. Now they will have to see how high this can go before they dilute the stock. Once the stock stabilizes, I could foresee a secondary priced about 20 cents below the current price. The underwriters would commit to stabilize the stock at this price, so, in effect, it would act as support. Nothing to be afraid of, in my opinion.

  • All of those who have never owned the stock seem to selling and advising us to do likewise.

  • They will now double up their position here @11.95- 12 and get taken out again at the close.

  • Reply to

    Good News Longs

    by jbrady151 Sep 16, 2014 12:49 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 16, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    And there it goes. Here's another piece of advice: DON'T double up on your short @ 12.

  • Reply to

    Good News Longs

    by jbrady151 Sep 16, 2014 12:49 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 16, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    That little missive would seem to be better news for shorts than longs. Are you getting a little jumpy here? Be careful. I think they are sitting on it at 11.82 to accumulate shares below that price, and when we move through that level it may happen rather dramatically.

  • Reply to

    bought 1,000 sept 20 puts at 100 strike,

    by the_street_dt_cm Sep 16, 2014 11:11 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 16, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Those puts were real popular yesterday @1.25. They're now bid @ .30. An easy way to lose about 80% of your investment overnight. This will close @ 105 on Sept 20, I believe.

  • Reply to

    The bashers are welcome.

    by bearofbleecker Sep 16, 2014 12:12 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 16, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    PS Virtually everyone who has shorted this stock today is now underwater ...of course they will all claim to have shorted it in that brief excursion above 12. Hopefully, they will double up at 12. In which case, they will get hammered again, I believe.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Sep 16, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    Every time a stock surges dramatically - particularly a pharma stock - it attracts the usual jackals, lurking on the edge of the kill, hoping to pick up a few scraps. These folks who short the stock are the accelerant which will fuel the next leg up. I particularly love those who pretend to have owned the stock before the runup and are now advising the rest of us to sell and take our profits.

  • Reply to

    Trying to convince you that 28 is the price.

    by bearofbleecker Sep 15, 2014 1:15 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Sep 15, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    I obviously meant 28.50. I was wrong. I doubled my position today, selling the shares I bought below 28 for a small profit and keeping the shares I bought between 28 and 28.50 for a small loss.

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