Very little real trading here, in my opinion. The large holders like it here where they can sell the June80 puts to the gullible. If you buy the stock @ 79.50 and sell that put for 1.63, your real cost is about 77.90. If you think that the put will expire worthless - which it should do just because of the gravitational field it creates - that's easy pickings.
Probably to just shy of that price.
Script numbers do not capture the "non retail" segment of the market, notably VA (where Sovaldi is already on the formulary) and Medicaid, prison populations, etc.
Surely, you must have noticed that all of these stocks move in synch and are, to an extent, countercyclical. The Amex Biotech index, almost alone among the market indices I follow, is down today. Financials are leading today's rally. As for manipulation, it is the short term traders who buy and sell options who "manipulate" the stock unknowingly.
Well said. Right now the stock is swinging within a range dictated by the large holders' ability to sell options. The conviction of some that the stock will go below 80 is part of this formula. We can be reasonably sure that it will tip in the direction of the 85 call - probably passing through that level and closing just under 85 by expiration. Of course, that's two weeks away and probably a little too long term an investment for this fellow. Incidentally, if you were inclined to daytrade on the interday movements of the biotechs, there are much better stocks to do it with.
Yes, there are weak markets and there are vibrant markets. Do you think that Toll Brothers is dumb enough to be investing in the weak markets? I can assure you that Toll knows more about the US housing market than Gundlach (whose short is now going underwater) or Freddie Mac or Dorian Davis
Interestingly, the short ratio almost doubled from 4/30 to 5/15, even though the number of shares short rose only slightly. The average daily volume, however, almost fell in half.
If you realized how thinly traded this stock really is, I think you'd be less impressed.
I used to frequent the Ford board until it became a forum for political loonies. But it's hard to figure out why the Chicken Littles are hanging out on this particular corner. Now that I know who I'm dealing with - and that they have no vested interest here - I won't waste my time debating them.
Other upgrades will be on the way, I think. Meanwhile, as the shorts try to pick up shares by taking out the stops of fickle longs below 36.50, I will put in buy orders there.
Skipping the blather, you should have covered at 34 when the stock was clearly disinclined to go lower than that. By the way, the larger shorts are trying to hold it at 36.50 today to cover. In effect, they are holding the door open for you - I would seize the opportunity if I were you.
Just came from dinner with our daughter and son- in-law who had put their little San Francisco flat on the market last week. They just signed a contract for $180,000 over asking price. I called my sister to give her the good news. She told me that her in-laws had just sold a little stucco bungalow in Oakland for $200,000 over asking. Woe is me - this is a terrible time to be in the housing business.
TOL was being heavily shorted up until last Friday - the first day in 7 trading sessions where long volume exceeded short volume. Yesterday it was again heavily shorted. And I interpret today's trading as shorts again trying to hold it down by shorting into the rally. Eventually, these shares have to be bought back, and in light of today's earnings report, it's hard to imagine longs eager to sell. I would expect the shorts to raid it once again tomorrow at the open. However, we could now see some upgrades, which will make them even less credible. Should be at 40 by midsummer, I think.
Are the two of you together, lunching at the Automat? Is that 5 cent wedge of apple pie as good as we all remember it?
Yes, and sometimes sorghum is a better investment than either. However, today TOL seems to be up 2% while gold is down .5%.
PS To put this in terms which you will understand, by my calculations, California, New Mexico and Arizona are today worth 323,426,501,825 3-piece suits.
Let's return to the subject at hand: In 1848, an ounce of gold was worth $21. For over 80 years - aside from a brief bump up to $35 during the Civil War - it remained at $21. In fact, by 1930, when gold was still priced at $21, inflation had eroded almost half of its value. In terms of purchasing power it bought about as much as $12 1948 dollars.
Also in 1848, the US bought Arizona, New Mexico, and California from the Mexican government for $15 million. Lesson: Real estate is a much better investment than gold.
Were you badly hurt by the Great Depression? It seems to have permanently scarred you and blighted your outlook. Incidentally, those who are continually expecting another 1929 seem not to have noticed that the major feature of that depression was a complete collapse of farm prices. At a time when well over 50% of the population was employed in agriculture. If you had to sell your corn for less than it cost you to produce, you were not in a position to buy your wife a sewing machine. Or much else.
You can't be so out of touch as to not know that the wave of mortgage applications last year was largely for refi's. I have the feeling that if you and prime had been at Sutter's Mill in 1848, the conversation would have been something like ...
Sage: "Boy those gold nuggets are real lumpy."
Prime: "And they're going to be real heavy to carry, too."