The key will be whether Xtandi is gaining a foothold with unrologists in the prechemo setting. I believe that flagging Zytiga scripts - particularly new prescriptions - are clear evidence that this is the case.
You are buying the conclusion the MM's are selling. Meanwhile, look at the price of the put options deteriorating - not just Friday's, but the Nov 22'nd ones as well. I advised one of the shorts here to unload those puts yesterday, since that will prove to be their high point, I believe.
Well, I overestimated the depths of their perfidy, but the technique is the same: Arouse the daytraders by painting the tape in the premarket, sell them stock at 107.50, then buy it back from them at 106.50. You know it will close above 107 because that's where they had it pinned. I still say it will run up late in the session and close at 108 or above.
The problem here is that this is a stock which everyone knows is undervalued. Therefore there are few active shorts, and the ever hopeful longs are easy game. The reverse holds true for TSLA, a stock which everyone knows is overvalued and is heavily shorted. The stock thrives, as Amazon did for years, by repeatedly squeezing the shorts. This morning in the premarket, TSLA was initially up by about 10 bucks. Then the MM's took it down in steps just before the open, until it was almost flat. This enticed the shorts in, after which they ran it up in a flash, putting them underwater once again.
Those are tiny trades, usually of 100 shares, made by the MM's passing the shares from one hand to the other. They are almost always a headfake, designed to get retail investors to committ too early. Today this stock was crossing above 107 in the premarket, enticing the daytraders in, who ran it up to 108 quickly. Then it was dumped, taking out their stops. The MM's accumulate shares without driving the price up by using the hopeful retail traders to do the heavy lifting. A good rule in these cases is to put buy orders in where others have their stops. I do expect this to run up into the close today.
Here's my guess for tomorrow: they paint the tape in the premarket with little trades around 106.80. Then, about 15 - 20 minutes in, they administer the ritual dunking, probably taking it under105 and then holding it around 105 for awhile. Finally, about halfway through the session, they start to move it up quickly. It closes at 108. Just a guess.
Agree completely. The problem with this stock is that there are too many retail longs and not enough retail shorts. Last week those Nov110 calls were selling for over 6 bucks; now they're under two bucks. The weekly calls have obviously been wiped out. If I owned puts, I'd sell them right here and take the gift the MM's are giving you, because it will be snatched away very quickly.
Also note that one of the key items in the just-announced Republican agenda is a repeal of the medical device tax. Which suggests that they are not about to take on the pharma lobby.
If, before the market opens, you see some trades crossing appreciably lower than today's close - say 105.40 or thereabouts - you will know for sure that the stock will run up later in the day. Everything that happens in the premarket is a headfake. (Just as the shares crossing this morning in the premarket at well above yesterday's close told you that this was going to get hit again.) I got my last shares today at 105.78 and have now rebuilt my position in the IRA at an average price of 108.94. Obviously, I was too quick on the trigger, but I'm pretty happy with that.
CELG is off its highs, but only down 60 cents at this point. I guess the Republican Congress considers Revlimid a bargain at $120,000 a year. By the way, any prison inmate who is denied Harvoni will take his/her case to court and will win.
If it dips that low, I believe, it will do so very quickly and recover very quickly. Why not put in a GTC buy order now? Better yet, why not put in a series of buy orders from, say, 106.70 down?
Because the MM's want it down. The value of this company has nothing to do with anything but its value as an acquisition target, which is increasing daily. They are on pace for TRx of around 40,000 by yearend.
I don't know. But when the IMS#'s come out, the MM's will mark up all those shares they've been accumulating from the disappointed retail speculators. It would make sense to jack them high enough to put the Dec. 120's in play, I guess.
Nomura raises pt from 158 to 175. Leerink-Swan raises pt from 142 to 153. JMP raises pt from 200 to 204.
Piper raises pt from 129 to 137. Morgan Stanley raises pt from 107 to 11. (wimps!) And the guys you gotta love, William Blair, cuts their pt to 181.
Well, most brokerage sites carry current options prices. And if you click on "options" here on the Yahoo! stock page, you also get the current prices. Like you, I do not trade options, but find that they often explain the seemingly inexplicable. The only question remaining, it seems to me, is whether the MM's will give this one more ritual dunking tomorrow morning before running it up.
Now that they have the call buyers demoralized and the retail longs throwing in their shares, the stage is set for a runup on Friday when the IMS#'s come out. My buy order at 107.25 filled this morning. It looks like they will pin it here at 108 for a while, but, just in case, I have orders in all the way down to 101. Watch for a turn in those Nov 110 calls as a signal that the MM's have finished rebuilding their inventory.
Well,perhaps for you or I. But I'll bet that Goldman and Credit Suisse have bright young history majors from Brown and Harvard who are tasked with staying up all night until they figure it out. One of ny rules is that what doesn't go down must go up. And vice versa. Look for this to advance briskly ahead of earnings.