Yes, this is "the Mulally put" - big traders shorting it in anticipation of his departure. In my opinion, an overcrowded trade. I want to own lots of Ford on the day that it becomes clear he's too smart to take the Microsoft job.
As I was saying, nothing should be that easy. It's one thing to buy it for a trade because it's charging ahead. It's another thing to actually hold it into the event.
Well, there's nothing wrong with a little dose of realism, particularly if you're holding the stock for the long term. In the short term, of course, as Elon Musk has demonstrated, there's nothing like a large dose of fantasy.
I interpreted JNJ's purchase of the Aragon drug as the stick. Now let's see if they pull out the carrot. They almost have to.
Yes, looking at yesterday's action, you could have interpreted it as someone exiting a large position. More likely, it was a setup for someone looking to establish a large position. I added shares to my position yesterday and have sold them today ... apparently too early. My general feeling is that most of what passes for a trend in this market -e.g. a biotech stock selling off in the face of strong category rally - is a headfake.
I used to laugh at the eternal lament of the retail investor whose favorite stock is sinking or going nowhere: "Big guys beating the price down to get your shares cheap!" The idea that large entities would drive the price of their favored stocks down, rather than up, makes no sense. The idea that they would be able to do this in concert seems even more farfetched. Now I'm not so sure. If nothing else, they seem content to let retail investors lose patience before moving the stock up. Yesterday, I saw MDVN being sold off systematically in the face of a big biotech rally. I interpreted this as a setup for some major buying and added shares, which I have sold today ... too early, by the looks of it. (I also apparently unloaded my added CLDX too early today.) In summation, if you own a stock on the basis of a belief in their products or technology, you should be able to buy it on short term weakness. This stock always moves up toward the end of session since many are afraid to be out of it overnight. Rightfully so, I think.
I know nothing about options except that when the stock price action makes no sense, the options often provide a clue. I owned CLDX @ 4.60 and 10.95 and sold most of it at 12.40ish. I added more at 22, then watched it move up til it almost brushed 40. When it started to weaken, I sold all but a token position at 33, then tried to reenter at 30, when it seemed to stabilize. I sold these shares at a loss at 28, then went back in at 24 when it seemed to find support there. The shares I sold this morning were the shares that I bought this week in the expectation of a runup going into the weekend. My attitude is that this bet has paid off, so cash it in. Also, nothing should be that easy. I am still holding a rather modest position, hoping for good news this weekend.
They're releasing the results of the glioblastoma trial this weekend. I added some yesterday, but not sure whether to hold them into the weekend. I expect it will fall off a bit towards the close tomorrow.
..it was SNTS, just before the acquisition offer. So eerily dead, I think the arbitrageurs could be at work.
It's been evident recently - particularly via the divergence of F vs GM stock prices - that many are selling or shorting F on the premise that Mullaly will end up with the Microsoft job. I predict that he won't be offered the job - replacing a man in his 50's with a near-to-retirement man from another industry is not exactly laying out a bold new path for the future. When someone other than Mullaly becomes Microsoft CEO, this stock should advance smartly, if only on the basis of short covering.
... that after making a convincing case that today's 125 calls will expire worthless, they will power through that level toward the close? Should come back toward that price anyway, I think.
PS I am no options expert, but it looks like they are straddling this with the Dec140 calls and the 105 puts at the moment, the net effect of which is to hold it here at 122.50 for a while.
An excellent illustration of the not-so-subtle pressure being exerted by patients and their advocacy groups on behalf of the approval of ibrutinib for CLL and WM.
Interesting that the price targets have moved up substantially while the stock price has stalled here. At the same time, the Jan130 call is selling for 8.33 - which is to say, there are those who are willing to pay $138 for the stock two months out. I think this will move up toward the end of the day - or certainly by Monday - when they start to roll over into the new options.
I'm expecting it to seesaw upwards. After the inital burst of trading at the open today, there was slow but relentless selling until the close, when there was another flurry which took it up slowly. I added some. I would expect it to dip at the open tomorrow and then recover. We will see.
I owned Tear at 11.17 and 11.27; sold it at 13.10 and 13.24 when I became convinced that the need for their machine was not real. I also owned ACAD at 12.72 and 12.76, but sold it at 21.25 and 21.50. I frankly forget why... probably because I became less enthusiastic about their prospects.
I own two tranches of NPSP -- up a couple of bucks on one, down a couple of bucks on the other. Still trying to figure out whether short bowel syndrome is a major winner.
I like INCY and, although I sold all but 1,000 shares of my CLDX at 33, am thinking of adding again here. In many ways the most interesting of these early stage drug companies is PBYI, I think, although it seems to attract little interest. I have listened to the CEO's presentations and find them convincing. There seems to be support at 40 from Adage, who own a major chunk. When I went down to 35.10 on Tuesday, I bought an additional 1,000 shares(it seemed time to punish the shorts) and sold half at 42. The sobering thing is that I really don't like the rest of Adage's holdings.
My philosophy, as you can probably gather, is to buy a diversified portfolio of these companies and, unless I believe fervently in the science, as I do with PCYC, to taper my holdings when they lose momentum. I had relatively small positions in ARRY and ARIA, which imploded, even though their drugs were actually being used. There is no such thing as an absolutely safe bet in this field.
Management has been wisely cautious about speculating on FDA actions and timetables. I listened to the CC and got the impression that they expected CLL approval before the PDUFA date, which would put it in January at the latest. There are oncologists who are eager to treat their patients with this drug and patients who are eager to have access to it, and I think that supplies meaningful pressure. In fact, since oncologists have historically been willing to use drugs off label, I wonder if some will wait for approval.
Since I believe that approval for CLL and Waldenstrom's is now more certain than ever, I view the stock as having been substantially derisked. The real question now is what the revenue projections will be. An important issue is duration of treatment. If you can really keep those elderly CLL patients alive longer and this becomes, in effect, a maintenance drug, the implications are wonderful.
But to the simpleminded folk who follow Cramer, that drug has now been approved and the stock only rallied a few bucks, so they were undoubtedly selling today, not realizing that the major approval is still around the corner.
Cramer is spectacularly ignorant about biotech. He will point out that the approval was only for a single indication and that the important approval - for CLL - is still awaited. He will probably scare his followers into selling. Besides, our market cap is still a mere $9 billion, and Cramer recently told his acolytes to sell any biotech with a market cap under $10 billion. (He did this right after the collapse of ARRY, in his usual mode of closing the wrong barn door after the horse has left.) This would have led one to sell SNTS and ENDP as well as our own PCYC.
When shorts are getting out, they have to buy the stock. There was no after hours drop. A single 100 share lot - undoubtedly an earlier trade reported late - crossed at116.97. The ask is still 125.