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Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 481 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 8:31 PM Flag

    I just reentered this. I suspect that they may miss, but I don't think it will make any difference. The mood of the market has changed and cashflow is back in play. If it sells off on earnings, I will wait for a bottom and add more. If it flatlines, I will add more at the end of the day. The pharma silliness is over - time to get back to basics.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 8:03 PM Flag

    I know that it seems strange in a world where everyone talks their book. I enjoy the give-and-take, and there is very little of it left these days. I used to have spirited discussions on the MDVN and ONYX boards as well as the GILD board - and actually learned some things. While I have been roughed up here a bit, it's nothing compared to the abuse I used to take on the ARNA board. I once had a position in their theoretical competitor VVUS, and realized that, paradoxically, there was no money in the category. (My main adversary there, "redsomethingorother" once accused me of seducing him to sell out at 10.) As a holder of IRWD, I realize that there is little money in the high-tech laxative category, too. IRWD has gradually taken share from Amitiza, but along the way, they have racked up losses of $1 billion. And they are couponing and advertising aggressively. However, if they were acquired, they would instantly become profitable; and that $1 billion in accrued losses might move to the other side of the balance sheet. Not a worldbeater. But how much would it cost SGYP to take that share from IRWD? (Now you have not only the expense of trials , but the expense of marketing the drug.) And who wants a piece of that action?
    There's nothing wrong with placing a small bet on a longshot. I've got a few of those riding myself. (e.g. XNCR, PFNX, etc.) But when you put it all down on one small cap pharma stock, there is also a cost of lost opportunity. You actually can make money just by buying the S&P. To think you can beat the averages buying individual stocks is arrogant. To which I plead guilty. I also enjoy playing the horses occasionally. But I never buy lottery tickets. Good luck to you ,too.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    I am gambling that this may be a good reentry point .. even though I'm not sure they'll make the earnings forecast. Triumeq has been cutting into their HIV business. But I think that their new one-pill-a-day drug combo will reverse this since the longterm side effects are so much better. The HepC business will also be impacted longterm by foreign exchange rates, but the FDA warning on ABBV's combo should help. If it sells off on earnings, I will buy into the dip.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    No, I would never even imply that you are dregs. You are obviously a young and fruity wine ... more like a Beaujolais.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    PS I forgot about INTC, which I bought as dividend insulation along with CSCO in my IRA and which have done surprisingly well. It may occur to you: How about the losing positions? My rule is to dump the losers and let the winners run. I have harvested most of my pharma losses to offset gains from AVNR earlier in the year. My big regret is missing the recent big rotation into industrials.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 6:45 PM Flag

    No,no, that was just a poetic flight. As for which stocks I own, my largest holding is in CLMT, a specialty refiner which I bought during the oil panic. They are a baseline in my IRA since they pay a dividend of 10%. My second largest position is in AAL and DAL, which I bought during the ebola scare. I took profits in my IRA and then reentered lower. I continue to hold them in my taxable accounts.( I also bought CCL during the ebola scare, and falling oil prices have continued to drive this.) My next largest holding is in FLTX. After that FB, which seems to me to be a must-own. My largest holding in the pharma field is INCY. Unless you count RAD, which has suffered recently, although I still have a decent profit in it and my view remains that either CVS or WAG must buy it eventually. Or ESRX, which I was scared out of doubling up on last week. I have been reentering WC and BAC over the past couple of months, and WFC is now a fairly large position. Amidst the pharmas, I have a lot of fairly modest positions, all of which are mentioned in my previous post, with he exception of NBIX, which I forgot about and which has performed relatively well (-9% since 7/20). I have been adding DYAX and ALXN on recent weakness, which has been profitable. I also bought some AAPL last week and just took a small position in GILD for the first time in many months. How about you?

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 6:13 PM Flag

    You remember: The board where I and my numerous alter egos - none of which I have employed here - drowned you out. Who were you then?

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Who were you again? I mean before Thursday. Before you joined the club of those here who "made a fortune on GILD" but never once posted on the GILD board.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    Sometimes, like my correspondents here, I question the wisdom of my continued posting. However, looking back to July 30, when I first began to question SGYP, I am cheered to note that many of the longs who used to populate this board have departed: bachert48, inlasvegas702, t_mann09, rdgosc, rtg1242, itsa1188, jk4763,
    konstantinos67, prxl, ..etc. If any of these are still lingering behind the scenery, no doubt we'll hear from them soon. But to the degree that I was able to protect some of them from any part of a 38% loss, I feel justified. Can it be that all of the wine has been poured from the bottle and only the dregs remain?

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    I omitted the venerable "aka"'s "idiot". In my experience, those on these boards who call others "idiot" and "moron" have run out of rational arguments.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    I guess posting factual material about historic stock prices constitutes "poor behavior" here. It's certainly atypical. I note that while in this single thread I have been called "loser" "tool" "fraud" and the withering "$#%$", I have never personally insulted any of you. And who was "akaadvisor_is_from_china" before he adopted his new identity? And what was his old identity? Something to hide? The longs on this board are so afraid of criticism that they actually try to create pseudo id's for anyone who questions their position.
    Some seem to find it strange that I would admit to the mistake of being overweighted in pharma stocks. It's a strange world where honesty is derided and fantasy is praised.

  • So says "awatchnow" about his beloved mentor. However, I think aany is withholding his best ideas from you. For example, he posted yesterday (or the day before), "I have a boatload of GILD @ $43." But, over the past two years, he's never once tipped you to GILD. In fact, as far as I can see, he's never posted about any stock except SGYP. For example, in March of 2014, when SGYP was at 6.70, he might have suggested a little diversification into GILD, which was at 68 back then. By August of this year, a year and a half later, it had run up to 120. But he went on babbling to you about SGYP. (e.g. on 7/26/15, "See ya'all at $11 soon.") It seems clear to me that this little coterie of longs (or perhaps it's only one person?) are fantasists. Aany and his burnt orange Lamborghini, to be bought on the huge profits resulting from running this stock up from $6.70 a year and a half ago to $5.80 today. Indians fan with his 500,000 shares at 3.50 - plus the new shares he added yesterday at the exact low of 5.50! For those of you who are finding encouragement in the wild boasts of these penny stock geniuses, I again counsel caution.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    PS Over the past two years, did the insightful aany have any other recommendations?

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    You seem to be forgetting that I was the one who counseled caution @ 9.46, which would have paid off huge, too.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    "Who spends his leisure time looking up the posts of others"??? You were the one who pretended to resurrect my GILD posts from the distant past. You attributed others' posts to me and said that I had been "wrong" in my recommendations and that I was pumping BABA. I challenged you to produce those posts, and you've retreated to dimestore psychoanalysis. As I said earlier, I've been posting under the same id for over 15 years. Your id is 2 days old. Who do you think has something to hide? And I still think you're the emergency room doctor who put all of your money into GILD at 110. You returned to the scene of the crime, saw my recent post on GILD, and followed me over here. And you are remembering - actually misremembering - all of the posters who were less than bullish on GILD ahead of that earnings report. Your contention that those posters - most of whom were longtime holders of GILD - "drowned out" a board which was overwhelmingly bullish is absurd.

  • Reply to

    An objective look at the pharma selloff

    by bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 2:58 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 24, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    Note that over the past month, there have been 6 posts on the ACOR board; 3 of these were SPAM. There have also been 6 posts on the DYAX board, 4 of which were SPAM. The non-ot posts were on the order of "Going green!" or "Sell!" And you ask why I don't post on other boards. (I fact, if it weren't for SGYP longs and their scatological diarrhea posts, the IRWD boards would also be completely dead.)

  • Since the IBB topped out on 7/20, it is down 26.7%. The XBI, which is skewed toward smaller cap pharma stocks, is down 38.5%. On 7/20, I had about 33% of my personal portfolio and 25% of my IRA in pharma/biotech stocks. This was obviously a stupid overconcentration, but this had worked very well for me in the past. Since then, I have gradually trimmed back on these positions, but not nearly fast enough. I am now looking at my remaining positions to see which I should keep. The obvious test is which stocks have outperformed the indices over these three months. (SGYP can be seen as outperforming the XBI since it is only down 27.4% during this period.) Here are the strongest relative performers:
    ACOR +4.6%; DYAX even; IRWD -2.3%; INCY -7%; CELG -11.5%; ACHN - 14.9%; ALXN -17%, OTIC -18.8%. I have dumped 5 pharma stocks and trimmed back to token positions in some others. Of these, the weakest by far is XNCR (down 51.6%) and VSAR (-45%, although I still have hopes for this one). Also retaining even small positions in the biosimilar stocks (EPRS, CHRS, and PFNX) was a mistake since they are down an average of 35%. A general observation would be that during this selloff, pie (e.g JNJ) outperformed pie in the sky. I don't think this trend is over. Control of drug prices is certain to be part of the Demo platform. And they may actually find a willing partner in Paul Ryan.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 23, 2015 9:19 PM Flag

    Aany, your Lamborghini is going into the top drawer of my desk. You'll get it back when class is over.

  • I've been posting under the same id for over 15 years "aka_advisor_is_in_china" has been posting under his id for day. Which one of us do you think has something to hide?

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 23, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    You bet I'm nervous. I actually sold some IRWD today because it fell below the level where their shares are worth two shares of IRWD. Remember when we started this little conversation, IRWD was at 10.46 and SGYP was at 9.35? Yep, I'm a jumpy guy. Even though IRWD is about 2% of my portfolio, I don't like it when it drops on Fridays, because that's usually when they're looking at the IMS numbers. It pays to be jumpy.

45.84+0.18(+0.39%)Nov 27 1:00 PMEST