On a message board which I frequent, full of vitriol but blessedly free of political nonsense, a political post has elicited a lot of controversy. Some have risen to the bait, but others have used this board to illustrate what happens when political arguments overwhelm meaningful discussion about the stock. ("Don't let this become the Ford board!") Yes, all you political posters of both stripes have made this board a watchword for inane blather. Go away. Let this become the Ford board again!
I love the fact that some numbskull is giving me a "thumbs down" for reporting this stuff. Here's an additional fact for his/her disapproval: Over 69% of those diagnosed with MM are over 65. So the outcome of the featured trial, which suggests that these people should be treated with combination therapy right away is important. Basically, if you wait to treat them, they will progress to the stage where chemo is an unattractive option and stem cell transplant is impracticable. The Logic advanced by Anderson/Jagannath is, therefore, that the majority of MM patients should be treated with a proteasome inhibitor (probably Kyrpolis) in combination with rev/dex right away.
(Part II) Further, when stem cell transplants are done, the new thinking is that this same "combination therapy" should be continued as maintenance. The three key elements of this combination (although Anderson thinks that ultimately there will be more than three) will be Revlimid or Pomalyst, Velcade or Kyrpolis, and dexamethasone. The problem with using Velcade long term, of course (my observation, not his) is that it causes progressive peripheral neuropathy. Painful and eventually, as it becomes less peripheral, serious. The prospect here is that rather than being given Kyrpolis as a last resort, after the patient has failed on Velcade, it will be one of a combination of drugs given in the very first stages of diagnosis and, potentially, continued as a maintenance therapy. The view of both Dr.s Anderson and Jagannath is that MM, rather than being "cured" by aggressive treatments, will be suppressed by longterm combination treatments. My analogy would be to Gilead, which has not cured HIV, but which, by combining various suppressive drugs, has made it a chronic condition rather than a death sentence.
The implications of all this are very good for ONXX. (This conference is held every two years and is central to the way that MM is treated worldwide.) They are probably even better for CELG.
This was a webcast summary of the MM Workshop sponsored by the the MM Foundation. The participants were Dr. Ken Anderson, from Dana-Farber in Boston and Dr. Sundar Jagannath from Mount Sinai in NYC.
To understand the importance of this vis-à-vis ONXX, you should first understand the current protocol for MM:
If your blood tests and subsequent bone marrow biopsies show evidence of MM, but you are otherwise asymptomatic, you are categorized as having "smoldering multiple myeloma". They do not treat you at this point. There is a 75% chance that you will progress to fullblown MM - diagnosed by an "M Spike" in your blood tests - at which point they begin to treat you. This is usually a combination of Revlimid , Velcade and dexamethasone. For younger people, this is "induction therapy" designed to get the malignant cells down to a point where they can harvest and freeze your T-cells preparatory to a cell transplant. (Heavy duty chemo, after which they transplant your own T-cells, which usually gets you back to square one.) For older patients, who can't withstand the rigors of chemo, when this therapy stops working or the Velcade is causing serious peripheral neuropathy, they switch you to something new. This is where Kyrpolis comes into play. It's a limited role and rather late in the game, but it's the only thing that might work at this point. (All of the foregoing is vastly oversimplified.)
Here's the news: The key presentation at the conference will be the trial using Kyrpolis, Revlimid, and low-dose dexamethasone in newly diagnosed older "smoldering myeloma". Anderson referred to this in his summary as "an apparently positive trial". It was obviously a good deal more than that, since the theme of his presentation was that the whole current treatment protocol is wrong. The evidence now is that you should start "combination therapy" at the "smoldering myeloma" stage in all newly diagnosed patients, hoping
to avert the need for chemotherapy. (continued)
In this case, the amazing investment insight comes from the board's reigning numbskull, however. Yes, an easy 150-500% profit, yours for the taking. And no one else knows about it. Shhhhhhh!
I am fascinated by the imaginary life you have constructed for me, red. Your chief delusion is that I am a doppelganger for hedge_risk. The only thing he and I have in common is an active dislike for you. If it is "sour and negative" in your world to question your sugarplum fantasies about ARNA going to 20 or 50, I want to know what medication you use to produce this euphoria. Your ravings about hedge_risk's supposed lifestyle leads me to believe that you eschew tobacco and alcohol, so I assume that you have access to some powerful pharmaceuticals.
Just a quixotic effort on my part to introduce a Ford subject here. However, having proven that they can prosper even without Europe and compete strongly in the US even as the Japanese devalue the yen, Ford is once again looking a great long term bet.
Looking at the press release in the Onyx website, I see that the only "new data" to be presented in Kyota are for trials of opromozib in hematological malignancies. (This presentation has already taken place, I think. We might recall that there were a lot of hints in the last CC that they place a lot of importance on this oral proteasome inhibitor.) For Kyrpolis, their major presentation is a study of Kyrpolis in combination with Revlimid and low-dose dexamethasone in high-risk smoldering myeloma in the elderly. This is moving Kyrpolis way up in the order of battle. I imagine that these patients, being elderly, are not candidates for stem cell transplants and therefore the various treatment cycles (Velcade, chemotherapy, etc.) which precede it. The theory here, I gather, would be to throw the three least noxious drugs at them in combination to see if this will slow their progression to fullblown MM.
Note the 5 "thumbs down" to a fairly nonargumentative post. These yutzes are so mad about being short one of the few stocks that rallied today, they'd give me a thumbs down for posting the date. They should realize that the runup today was only the first part of what should be a more sustained rally as the importance of this trial is recognized more widely.
Seeking Alpha pays their distinguished contributors $10 per thousand page views, which means that he made a penny on the single occasion that I read one of his articles pumping ARNA. I want it back. With interest. In fact, I want punitive damages of two extra cents and another penny for pain and suffering.
When the kind of posts we're beginning to see here start to rise above the froth, it's a sure sign that the crowd is thinning out.
...who came along for the ride. I was expecting it to finish at a high for the day, given the huge short position. But I'm keeping my shares. Seems like there's real value here.
I had pulled back to a token position in SQNM, but will start to add now that we have some visiblity. It's amazing to me how many of these early stage biotech companies fall precipitously when they issue earnings reports which, predictably, show losses. Do some of the retail speculators actually expect a surprise profit? At this stage, I think strong growth in revenues is more impressive than a slightly less-than-expected loss would have been.
Just to prove my contention that this stock would settle at 7.65, I bought a couple of thousand shares today and am now down (including commissions) $17.90! Where is the support that you guys promised me? This is humiliating. I have been unjustly accused of being a "soft basher" and "secret short". Now, for the second time, just to prove a point, I have gone long this stock. The first time I lost around $150. Now I am down another $17.95. This better rebound by 15 cents tomorrow.
Hi, John, I have enrolled for the web broadcast on Friday (2pm PT), but I don't imagine I'll have enough patience to listen to it all. The website says that online enrollees should have received a password allowing them access to the abstracts, but I can't find any password in their e-mails. I don't expect anything earthshaking will be revealed here. A lot of the programs seem to be Big Picture discussions rather than reports of trials. If I learn anything new, I will post it here. On another note, perusing the posts on The Myeloma Beacon, I am again impressed by how dramatically effective Kyprolis is for many MM patients. Some of the early participants in the trials have now been on the drug for almost 2 years and seem to be in effective remission. It's becoming increasingly evident, I think, that Kyrpolis, rather than Velcade, should be the first line of treatment.
Right. Hedge_risk is only here to pick the brains of brilliant investors like red90091. He is being paid a handsome retainer by SAC and Einhorn to see what xplay's next move is. (Inside scoop: He is onceagain offering his profuse thanks for the opportunity to " load the boat" with those "bargin shares".) You guys should really stop shooting your mouth off about the imminent big runup when the DEA announces the scheduling of Belviq. No one else knows about this.
According to the filing, they now own 7.3 millions hares, which would be a bit more than 10% of the float. So much for the assertion made here recently that "there are no more buyers". Looks like sellers are pretty scarce today.
Well, I'd never heard of this guy who apparently tweets trading tips while letting you know that he's in The Cayman Islands. His video today seemed to be urging people to short the stock at 1pm because, he said, today's gain wouldn't hold. But it did. I still think anyone who trades pharmas on the basis of the charts is disregarding all of the exogenous events which can move these stocks quickly. If, for example, today's announcement of ibrutinib receiving "breakthrough thereapy" designation in CLL with the 17-P deletion caused an analyst to announce an upgrade tomorrow or raise the price target substantially, I think that we would see today's shortsellers cover quickly. Basically, he said he was advising a woman who was looking for an entry point in PCYC against entering here. We will see.