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Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 458 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 seconds ago Member since: Jul 27, 2000
  • The euphoria from the runup has faded, but it seems the stock has real sponsorship.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 11:21 PM Flag

    Well, if she were a real person, she would be guilty of a felony.

  • Reply to

    Lord Raleigh

    by stacyed100 Oct 25, 2014 12:33 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 10:06 PM Flag

    But you have challenged and insulted my alter ego. Since you are obviously afraid to meet me cano a cano, I will offer you the coward's way out: Smoked whitefish at 5 paces.

  • Reply to

    Lord Raleigh

    by stacyed100 Oct 25, 2014 12:33 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    Zabar's smoked fish counter at 10am tomorrow. Canes at 10 paces.

  • Reply to

    Lord Raleigh

    by stacyed100 Oct 25, 2014 12:33 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    Re: Your New York upbringing. The Reader's Digest did an interesting survey a few years ago on the subject of courtesy. They dispatched people to ask directions, drop file folders, etc. in major cities around the world. Their conclusion: the least courteous cities were Taipei, Seoul, etc. The most courteous cities were Stockholm, and right behind that, in second place, New York City. New Yorkers pretend to be tough guys, but they are really softies these days. If you ask for help, you will be overwhelmed. Curiously, my New York friends don't seem to notice this change - they cling to their identity as cold, tough people. But I think the common 9/11 experience worked a sea change. I remember visiting New York a couple of years ago and being astonished at how friendly and clean the city was. ( I lived in NYC for 10 years in the 60 -70's, a dire time) As we were walking up to the Time-Life center on Columbus Circle, I saw what seemed to be white confetti on the sidewalk. I said "See! Litter!" They were the petals of cherry blossoms.

  • Reply to

    Lord Raleigh

    by stacyed100 Oct 25, 2014 12:33 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 7:13 PM Flag

    To be clear: I am heavily invested in GILD and a big believer in their management. I only questioned the decision of sovaldinvestor to put 80% of his net worth into this stock at an alltime high 2 days ahead of earnings. "Go fly a kite" is a quaint insult, along the lines of "Your mother wears combat boots." Maybe I am not as much older than you as I imagine.

  • Reply to

    Bought this on the wrong premise.

    by bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 6:23 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    Since Priscilla Chan is a Harvard graduate who seems to be a native American speaker, I doubt whether their courtship was of the "Me Tarzan - you Jane" nature. Quite apart from being gutsy, he managed to be CHARMING in his awkward Mandarin. Something which Jobs or Brin could never manage in English. The guy is formidable. (a French word)

  • Reply to

    Lord Raleigh

    by stacyed100 Oct 25, 2014 12:33 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    I would suggest that no one on these boards is pressed for time. I find the exchange of views here a pleasant diversion which is, occasionally, profitable. The GILD board is an anomaly in that the exchange is usually civil and intelligent. (as opposed to the many boards which have descended into political vituperation and "Going to the moon!"/ "This POS going to 0!" exchanges) To my pleasant surprise, even those with whom I might not always agree seem to value this level of civility. Incidentally, I think that you are of the generation which finds the habit of writing grammatically pompous or "arrogant". We cannot help it. We were educated by teachers who disdained misspellings and incorrect constructions. We were told that if we committed the "their/they're/there" conflation (even though they may escape spell check), we would be branded as ignorant and unemployable. I'm not sure that they were wrong.

  • bearofbleecker by bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 6:23 PM Flag

    Stuck my toe in here on the premise that this is one of the stocks which the institutions/hedge funds would run up into the end of the year. Now, having seen Zuckerberg take an entire interview in Mandarin, I am convinced that the guy has the guts of a bandit. I flatter myself that I have some competency in French and German, yet when confronted by colloquial speakers, I often freeze. I am impressed by the fact that in the midst of managing a phenomenally successful company, he has the intellectual energy to tackle Mandarin and the courage to not reach for the life preserver of an interpreter. In for the duration.

  • Having just made a nice return by buying into on AAL at the height of the Ebola hysteria, I am looking for a hedge against rebounding energy prices. This seemed like a good candidate because of (1) low exposure to offshore, (2) low debt, and (3) a good dividend. Am I missing something?

  • Reply to

    Lord Raleigh

    by stacyed100 Oct 25, 2014 12:33 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    Sorry to be budding in again. You seem to be objecting to what some of us might consider common courtesy. "oh thank you for always informative reply blah blah blah vomit vomit vomit," etc. As for my "terrible advice", I never tell anyone to buy or sell anything. In this case, sovaldiinvestor told us that he has just put 80% of his liquid assets into GILD on a day when it made its alltime high. To be blunt, I think he is chasing, and I question his decision to tie his family's financial future to any one stock. But, if he is determined to do so, I suggested that he sell half of that large stake on Monday and put in buy staged GTC buy orders below Monday's close. If the stock opens above Monday's close on Tuesday - and stays there - I may be wrong. But I don't think it's "terrible advice".

  • Reply to

    It's refreshing to read some posts

    by cd3313 Oct 24, 2014 10:44 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Yes, you really can make money both by buying and holding and by trading. And you can often use trading to hedge the longer term strategy. For most people options, in my opinion, are like trading via a loan shark. You are always buying above the current value and selling below the current value. No doubt some (the Najarian brothers) make a lot of money on it. I follow the options trading only because, in some stocks, it dictates the stock price. Probably not here. Although you have to wonder about that big wall of Nov110 calls.

  • Reply to

    Lord Raleigh

    by stacyed100 Oct 25, 2014 12:33 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    If you are paying attention - and by citing one of my posts from some weeks ago, I assume that you are - you will note that Raleigh is into technical analysis and charting, subjects upon which I am profoundly ignorant. Which is one reason why I find his posts interesting. Unfortunately, the internet creates a distance which makes it easy to refer to others as "moron", "clown", "idiot", etc. Civility is really the basis of civilization.

  • Reply to

    Just bought 10K shares

    by sovaldiinvestor Oct 24, 2014 3:59 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Well, a $1,000 loss is as meaningful to someone with $10,000 in the market as a $1,000,000 loss is to someone with $10,000,000 invested -- perhaps moreso. If you talk about investing large sums of money, some will feel patronized and some will disbelieve you. I am a longtime investor in MDVN also. My first venture into the stock market was about 42 years ago when I walked into Merrill-Lynch with my modest nest egg. One year later, I received a form letter from the office manager saying roughly, "Dear Mr. ______, It has been a pleasure servicing your account for the past year. If you have any comments about our service, I'd be pleased if you communicated with me personally." I sent his form letter back to him with the notation (in red ink, appropriately), "You lost all my money." It was an exaggeration ...but only a slight one. I never heard back from him. And I've never trusted the pundits and talking heads since then.

  • Reply to

    Just bought 10K shares

    by sovaldiinvestor Oct 24, 2014 3:59 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    Well, aside from putting 80% of your liquid assets into a single stock on the day it makes its alltime high, you seem like a sensible fellow. I should think that being an ER physician - even a semi-retired one - would provide you with all the excitement you need. I am still betting that you will be able to buy some of those shares cheaper on Tuesday. My rationale is that even if the earnings are impressive, institutional investors aren't going to start throwing money in right away. Much more likely that they'll throw some shares in and try to stampede the retail investors, many of whom are on margin and expecting a major runup. We will see.

  • Reply to

    SA article

    by durangokidd2106 Oct 24, 2014 10:37 AM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    Speaking of which, we should be seeing the Astellas quarterly soon, I assume. It generally leads the MDVN report by about a week and provides a good indication of how the latter will do.

  • Reply to

    IMS #'s ?

    by joec9915 Oct 24, 2014 1:44 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    As a Schwab client, I go to their "research" page on GILD and then to the Credit-Suisse research they provide. Every Friday, about mid-day, they publish an IMS tracker on the previous week's prescriptions for a lot of recently launched drugs. They also include a lot of graphic material on prescription trends for these drugs.

  • Reply to

    Lord Raleigh

    by stacyed100 Oct 25, 2014 12:33 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    You are ranting. And when more than 1 person questions your posts, you resort to the paranoid assumption that they are all the same person posting under different id's.

  • Reply to

    It's refreshing to read some posts

    by cd3313 Oct 24, 2014 10:44 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Yes, if one had bought GILD in March, 2001, for around 30 a share and held it, you would own it today with a split-adjusted basis of 2.03, multiplying your investment by 55X without ever paying a penny of taxes. However that would have required you to hold it through that period from April 2007 (split-adjusted close of 20.43) through December 2011 (split-adjusted close of 20.47) -- a period of almost 5 years when your investment would have been dead money. This would have required a lot of patience. Particularly when you were watching stocks like AAPL more than quadruple over that same period. In fairness, we should note that the S&P went essentially nowhere during that same time frame.)
    I agree that long term capital gains is the only way that most retail investors make money. However, there is a time to sell even the strongest stocks. (I'm not implying that now is a time to sell GILD.)

  • Reply to

    Just bought 10K shares

    by sovaldiinvestor Oct 24, 2014 3:59 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Oct 25, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    If I recall, he also told his viewers to dump all of their biotechs during the February/March selloff. He also warned people away from airline and cruise stocks during the height of the Ebola scare - the very time one should have been buying them.

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