You don't need a degree in statistics to realize that if a placebo cures your disease, you're not really that sick.
Although my figures for Linzess's relative performance vs placebo are not the same as indiansfans, my conclusion is the same: the SGYP drug's performance vs placebo is much weaker. The higher efficacy reported for the placebo in the SGYP trial suggests that far from being more stringently selected, the recruiting was sloppy. (i.e. if a placebo cures your constipation, perhaps you're not really constipated.) Also, while the higher dosage of Linzess was dramatically more effective than the lower dosage, the performance of both dosages in the SGYP trial was virtually identical. Which also suggests that the stuff doesn't work that well. Which would also explain why the incidence of diahhrea is lower. In practice, most of the cases of diahhrea with Linzess go away when the patient takes the drug before breakfast, as is recommended.
The key event was the Credit-Suisse downgrade in April which, even though they actually raised their price target, called attention to indications that the duration of treatment with Xtandi was lower than expected. This was enough to make me exit, although I bought back a quarter position at 120, abandoning it quickly when it couldn't hold that level. The C-S analyst at the time, Lee Kalowski, left when they essentially ended their coverage of this and other pharmas. He moved to Cambridge to become CEO of Tokai Pharmaceuticals, which has an androgen interceptor which may be effective in patients who don't respond to either Zytiga or Xtandi. He added Cheryl Cohen to the board in April - she was chief commercial officer of Medivation until her retirement in July 2014. Could be the next MDVN. Or the next DNDN. Worth a little tumble, I think.
Says the man who was pumping DNDN all during its death throes. And, pathetically, is still hanging out here for that tiny frisson of schadenfreude which is his only consolation.
According to the newer study, Linzess's superiority to the SGYP drug is even more marked. In the earlier SGYP study, the two dosages were 10.8% and 9.3% superior to the placebo. In the newer study, the dosages were only 7.2% and 7.3% superior to the placebo. The Linzess dosages were 17% and 9.9% superior to placebo. The slightly lower diarrhea occurrence for the SGYP drug can be attributed to the fact that it just doesn't work very well. Which is also demonstrated by the fact that the higher dosage doesn't work any better than the lower dosage. There is a large psychological component to these results. Otherwise why would people who are chronically constipated report that the placebo gave them diarrhea?
Bloomberg still misunderstands the dynamics of the disease in the U.S. They are still taking the number of diagnosed HCV patients, subtracting the number treated, and using the remainder as the assumed target population. They overlook the fact that we are in the midst of an epidemic of heroin use, which has greatly increased the rate of infection. And most of these are younger people who do not even realize that they are infected.
As I was saying. The institutional buyers - who are the only ones who count - can wait for the retail investors to depart. (In this case, all those who were " disappointed" in blowout earnings and a lousy 2.4% one day return. ) The same thing is happening with FB today: Those who expect a huge immediate runup on the earnings get discouraged and leave; their place is taken by the longer term investors.
Not necessarily so. Unfortunately, the only people who HAVE to buy on a day like this are the shorts -- and there are obviously too few of them to squeeze. No large institution runs into an upside earnings report with fistfuls of cash. I have bought shares here between 115.40 and 116. This should continue to trend up in future sessions.
Strange then that of the 17 analysts Yahoo! covers, 7 have raised their estimates in the last 30 days and none have lowered them. You should consider that sales of the HIV drugs have been strong lately.
Just a note: The only way retail investors make serious money in the market is by buying good companies and holding onto them forever. I made a lot of money by buying GILD last year, but obviously screwed up by selling my remaining position just above 100. The moral: Who cares where this goes Tuesday/Wednesday? Up 5 points or down 5 points.. Big deal. I have a small position now and will double up on it after earnings. The current trend is to take profits on good news.
Well, if AMZN continues to weaken Monday, I suspect that everything will.
There are two main pools of HCV infection in the US: Older people who were infected through unscreened blood transfusions, and young people who are infected through dirty needles. The older people, many of whom are in advanced stages of he disease are probably disproportionately represented in the Harvoni-treated population. Many of the younger people - mostly intravenous drug users - are unaware that they are infected. Heroin usage in the US has doubled over the past 6 years, and the new users are often middle-class whites. Until we start screening and treating people in jails and rehab centers, there will be no shortage of HCV patients.
I forgot that I also put a buy order for 500 shares @ 113.19 in my IRA, so I'm now mildly long. Given the BIIB plunge, I would expect a lot of people to be buying puts ahead of earnings, which could take us down some more, I assume. Not a lot of bargain hunters in this market.
Freddy, I know you have profited handsomely by being a longtime holder of BIIB. (a ten-bagger?) So you can afford to take the long view. However, anyone who entered since 2014 has now seen their profit evaporate in one day. Of course, you're right about the "earnings miss" - if GILD fell 17 cents short of the consensus estimate, I don't think it would be any big deal. Like you, I bailed out of MDVN after having made some good profit in the past. The impetus was C-S's reduced earnings forecast which cited shorter duration of treatment for Xtandi. Forgot that I had an order in for 500 shares of GILD in the IRA at 113.19, which filled. Also forgot about several buy orders for AAL around 40. Maybe I'm getting too old for this stuff. Good luck.
According to today's WSJ, GAAP earnings were $3.93, vs a consensus prediction of $4.10. ($4.22 was the non-GAAP number.) The forecast of 6-8% growth this year vs the previous forecast of 14-16% was obviously the more serious issue. Tecidifera is not looking like the big success that everyone expected. The fact that they reported two disappointing drug trials last week didn't help either. With Rituxan coming off patent next year, they need new drugs in the pipeline desperately.
Frankly, I think the amount of money one has is irrelevant here. If you have $5,000 and lose $500 of it, it's as painful as losing $500,000 of your $5,000,000. Besides, you cannot possibly have any idea of how much money I have. And it would be literally impossible for GILD to have an earnings miss on the scale of BIIB's miss.
UAL sold off 3 1/3 points yesterday on strong earnings, but held up well in today's airline debacle. I had several buy orders in for AAL between 40.08 and 40.48, and when I came back from lunch, found that they had filled. Hoping that this can bounce Monday.
As it moved up to 13.30, I raised my stop to 113.15 and went to lunch. When I got back, was surprised to find that it was taken out. I had tried to fish for a bottom at 113.60 earlier in the day, and lost heart at 113.10. This was sold relentlessly all day. Perhaps someone who was in commodities had a margin call. The only stock I can see in my portfolio with a strong bounce was FB.