Greetings gizmondo. I did very well on this in the halcyon days, and have recently taken a small position since it's starting to look like a value stock. The letter from Sanders et al makes it sound like Medivation picked the pockets of UCLA. My recollection is that they paid a hefty fee, plus a royalty. And I would guess that Astellas, the original backers, and the MDVN shareholders have put well over $2 billion into research, trials,etc. I will work out the figures. My point is that it will be a while before Medivation and Astellas recoup their investment, muc less reap obscene profits. And then, of course, we have the example of Dendreon and others who sink millions into the pursuit of a therapy and lose it all.
"the new financing arrangement makes that less likely"? How so? The company didn't get a nickel and are still as desperately short of cash as ever. It's just that the noteholder took half off the table. Something which I've been urging others here to do. The shorts, by the way, will never cover because they are the MM's.
They let it run longer than I thought they would. However, one should note that it traded over 6 million shares and ended up no higher than it was about an hour into the session. Which is to say, a lot of shares were sold into this rally.
Just made back the $800 or so that I lost on my long position months ago. But really did it just to put a little money behind my prediction that they would have to run it at the open today. I am guessing that they will flatline it at some point ( 2.79-2.80?)which might be a good place to lighten up. Good luck. I hope you get the NDA acceptance, which would give it some support.
Out @ 2.75. A largish offer at the 2.81 ask seems to have cooled the blood. Good luck with this today. Remember, those noteholders have $160m at stake. They have to support this.
You don't understand. There are millions of people who have been sitting on the can for years, waiting for plecanatide. They have their GI's on the phone so that he can write them a prescription the minute it comes on the market. In fact, the day after plecanatide is available at CVS, sewage plants all over the country will be inundated. On the west side of Manhattan, all of the major sewer lines will rupture as hundreds of thousands of constipated people flush at once.
Ooops. thought I was posting that on Bashers' Blog. You guys aren't supposed to know about this stuff.
My contract keeps getting extended. When I started posting here on July 30, IRWD was at 10.46 and SGYP was at 9.50. My boss said I should keep bashing SGYP until it was worth only half a share of IRWD. But when we reached that point, he said, "Keep going until it's worth a third of a share of IRWD. Same deal. Nickel a post." When we got to that point, he raised me to six cents a post and told me to push it down to where it was worth only a quarter of a share of IRWD. We got there yesterday, and I was looking forward to a little well-earned vacation. Bu now he's raised me to SEVEN cents a post and tells me that I should keep it up until a share of SGYP is worth one fifth of a share of IRWD. I think he might be taking advantage of me.
He is obviously confusing MARKET CAP with CAPITALIZATION. But Investopedia, NASDAQ, Standard and Poors, Dow Jones, are wrong about what constitutes market cap. Nitabosco can't be wrong. Because, as he never tires of reminding us, he's a DOCTOR. ( I am a big fan of all those true crime TV shows. I am always impressed by the large number of physicians who turn out to be psychopaths, swindlers, and often easy marks.)
Oh. Silly me. You should explain to the world that debt is added to stock value to arrive at market cap. More proof that physicians, in general, are lousy investors. Because no one ever tells them they're wrong. And when you tell them, they don't believe you.
He's so sure of it that he has repeated it about six times. This is wonderful news, since it means that my IRWD shares are worth about $33. To show my appreciation, I will sell them all to him for $12. ( Meet me in the dark pool, nitabosco.)
Sorry for attempting to inject a note of realism here. I'm guessing that they will spike this up at the open tomorrow and then sell it off gradually. If there was a retail short position, they might spike it up, let it fall off so the shorts could double up, spike it again, etc. The NDA, of course, is the unknown quantity. If it's accepted, they might give it a real push. If they get the dreaded CRL, game over. In the long run, it makes little difference. The only thing which can save this company from oblivion is a partnership with a major drug company.
No, at the moment, it's all about how big a bath the noteholders have to take. They obviously cashed in the convertible for less than face value because otherwise, they thought they might get stiffed. Since they didn't trust the company to repay the note, it's doubtful whether they want to own $80 million worth of their stock. And when a stock like this trades 4-5 million shares a day while drifting down - or, as today, going up 3 cents - you know that someone is just churning it around to get out. This is complicated by the fact that no one but the MM's can really go short. If there was a retail short position, they could rally it harder and faster. The drug has nothing to do with it.
I don't love any of my pharma stocks too much these days. I keep lightening up on them and then realize that I still own too big a stake in the sector. I sold a couple of thousand shares of IRWD yesterday at 10.90 and now have the position which I'd planned on. I don't expect it to make me rich and I don't worry about it. I think it should make 12.50 or so by yearend, maybe 14 by yearend 2017 if all goes well. As I've said before, Linzess is not ibrutinib. And neither is plecanatide.
Never did get that order in. Too bad - I think they'll run it up over 2.75 at the open tomorrow (in the absence of news).