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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

bearofbleecker 351 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 6:06 PM Member since: Jul 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by akadvisor2014 Oct 20, 2014 2:26 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 19, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    Mein doppelganger is backwards speaking.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by akadvisor2014 Oct 20, 2014 2:26 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 19, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    One of the enduring myths is that Stocks are "manipulated" to make options expire worthless. The fact is that options have an innate tendency to expire worthless. And when the positions are large, the tendency becomes an irresistable force. If a horse becomes an overwhelming favorite and the betting on that horse piles up as post time approaches, you will make no money on your bet, even if your horse wins. Or, if supermarkets load up on yogurt with an expiration date of 2/20, as that date approaches, yogurt will go on sale; and on 2/20, they'll be giving it away.

  • Reply to

    AAPL & GILD

    by akadvisor2014 Jan 14, 2015 4:16 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 17, 2015 8:41 PM Flag

    Well, I'll just say that the airlines are also subject to the growth/contraction of the economy itself, labor issues, etc. and when DAL reports we'll have some idea of how much money they can make. Enough OT. Good luck on GILD ,everyone. If those 110 calls start to move up, I may some again for a trade, but will be out before earnings. Then perhaps back in again.... cautiously.

  • Reply to

    AAPL & GILD

    by akadvisor2014 Jan 14, 2015 4:16 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 17, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    (cont.) ...a stock which no one pays attention to, but which has moved up 26% since Sept. 15, a point where GILD was almost exactly where it is now. I also think MDVN and PCYC have a much better chance of beating on earnings than GILD. And I think ESRX has the best chance of all. I also own a bunch of earlier stage pharmas. (Got to keep refilling the pipeline.) I think INCY has the best chance of being acquired.
    I think Europe will recover and started buying the VGK last week.

  • Reply to

    AAPL & GILD

    by akadvisor2014 Jan 14, 2015 4:16 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 17, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Well, I am usually reluctant to talk my own book, but since we are meandering..... GILD's bounce up to 100 was absolutely predictable, since there were so many 100 puts outstanding. I intended to buy it at the open, but got to my desk 10 minutes late since my wife hadn't made the coffee. A costly cup - I got in at 98 instead of 97.50. Got out too early, too, but made a bit of money. The fact that it closed above 100 (on the Aetna news, I suppose) should enable them to keep selling the 110 calls into earnings, which should help to support the price. If I were long and traded in options, I would sure sell some covered calls Monday.
    WFC is the only bank I own, and I sold over half my shares @ 52.5 on 1/13, another quarter after earnings. When you buy WFC, it seems to me, you are buying the US housing market, where the collateral is strong. However, it's going nowhere until the Fed raises rates. Another dead sector.
    DAL is a good airline - by far the best managed, I believe. But AAL is unhedged for fuel costs and best positioned to eventually benefit from the opening of Cuba. I loaded up on both - along with CCL and NCL - at the depths of the ebola scare and now, not wanting to pay the taxes, am more or less stuck with them for a while. The fly in the ointment is the weakness in European and South American travel. However, with the euro sinking, I think US travel to Europe will rebound this summer.
    As for BABA, I say if this is such a great company, how come the Chinese sold all the shares to us? The only reason they exist is because the Chinese government forced Google out. And if they told you that they tripled earnings, would you believe them? I'll take FB.
    My bet on oil (which I think will continue to drop) has been CLMT, a small specialty refiner. They have rebounded 17.7% from the Dec 15 panic lows, while XOM has only recovered 5.4%. I got in too early and even after Friday's big recovery am only slightly ahead.
    My favorite pharma stock is IRWD.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on a SGYP Buyout

    by bijove Jan 16, 2015 12:24 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 17, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    Something wrong with "first and best"?

  • Reply to

    Did anyone see script numbers today?

    by stock_itch Jan 16, 2015 7:59 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 17, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    Just a reminder: The issue now is not the number of scripts, but the level of discounting.

  • Reply to

    Why the biotech bubble may be bursting:

    by bearofbleecker Jan 13, 2015 3:24 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 8:48 PM Flag

    Actually, i got back in this morning for a trade since it was virtually certain to close near 100. Thefact that it closed above 100 today ( which surprised me) means that they can continue to sell the 100 calls for a nice premium, which should support the price. However, I did sell my CELG today. I even sold half my JNJ. I think that unless the earnings are a huge blowout, it will sell off. In the process, it may be oversold, in which case I may go back in.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    Well, I think the low gas prices may help eliminate the huge overhang of used RV's. If I had a place to park it, I'd buy one myself. They look dirt cheap to me.

  • Reply to

    The new ND refinery

    by jaime9_2000 Jan 15, 2015 2:57 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    PS Someone was offering 40,000 shares @ 23.45 (a foolish thing to do unless you are trying to put up a roadblock). Now that offer has disappeared. Another good sign.

  • Reply to

    The new ND refinery

    by jaime9_2000 Jan 15, 2015 2:57 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    Well, the price action today is very encouraging. They were sitting on the bid @ 22.72 for a while, and figuring that they were trying to hold it there to add more, I bought another 1000 @ 22.70. Still underwater on the major chunk I bought for the IRA (to early in the decline). However, if those here who are predicting hat the dividend will be intact are correct, everything should be hunky-dory.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on a SGYP Buyout

    by bijove Jan 16, 2015 12:24 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    With $32 million in the bank while they burn through almost that much per quarter, SGYP obviously needs some help. I, personally, am suspicious of pharma companies headquartered in the Graybar Building. If they were in Palo Alto or Cambridge they could probably raise the cash. The real problem is that the widespread adoption of Linzess is a roadblock. If you read the user reviews, most describe it as "a miracle". I think perhaps IRWD will be bought out itself before SGYP.

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    Well, considering their dismal earnings report, I think the JP Morgan mood would be a bit on the glum side these days.

  • Reply to

    The new ND refinery

    by jaime9_2000 Jan 15, 2015 2:57 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Well, I think the current weakness implies that the dividend will be cut. If it's not, I've made a wonderful speculation. But seriously, I really do think that if they said they were cutting the dividend in half temporarily, the stock would jump. I would gladly take 6% for a few quarters while waiting for 12%.

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow will be a blood bath. Watch and see

    by scjohnson4047 Jan 15, 2015 7:51 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    The shorts, like the longs, tend to stay too long at the party.

  • Reply to

    The new ND refinery

    by jaime9_2000 Jan 15, 2015 2:57 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 12:43 AM Flag

    Well, capitaljohn, you bring a bit of certitude to this board, which is reassuring. What you say makes sense, with one exception: i'm not sure that the price of specialty lubricants drops along with the price of oil, particularly if the number of suppliers is relatively small. I paid $5.19 for a quart of ordinary garden variety nonsynthetic motor oil yesterday. I see faint signs of life in the price behavior recently. Uncertainty is the enemy here. I think that if they said, "we are temporarily reducing the dividend by 50%" the stock would go up.

  • Reply to

    Why the biotech bubble may be bursting:

    by bearofbleecker Jan 13, 2015 3:24 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 16, 2015 12:14 AM Flag

    Yes, the irony here is that a drug which actually CURES the disease is less valuable than a drug which merely treats the disease. As George Bernard Shaw put it in his preface to "The Doctor's Dilemma, "A physician has no pecuniary interest in curing you, but rather in treating you endlessly." The assumption that these 3 million or so patients will all be cured by Gilead drugs is a bold one. The fact is that the whole antiviral chemistry is becoming widely understood and there will be players large and small who will have alternative therapies. I think that GILD has a rather limited window to cash in here.

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow will be a blood bath. Watch and see

    by scjohnson4047 Jan 15, 2015 7:51 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 15, 2015 7:55 PM Flag

    I think the stock will advance tomorrow. If it doesn't, the prospects would be a lot grimmer than I imagine. If you're holding the January puts, I think you should have cashed them in today.

  • Reply to

    Sick of GILD

    by brrycohen Jan 15, 2015 3:19 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 15, 2015 7:52 PM Flag

    I believe that the only way most retail investors make money in the markets is by buying and holding, so congratulations on your patience and your success with this. But there is another way to look at it: The price you quote, 40 - 50, was where the stock was at in the beginning of 2013. Over 2013, the stock virtually doubled. However, over 2014 the stock appreciated at a much slower rate; and unlike 2013, when the stock marched steadily up, it took a couple of fairly steep dives in 2014. There were at least two good exit points: (1)When the biotechs began to falter at the end of February, and (2) When they reported the last quarter's earnings. Both of these - particularly the first event - were followed by excellent entry points. Even if you missed selling at the absolute highs and didn't enter at the absolute lows, your returns would have been dramatically better than just holding the stock to this point. I think the signals point to this being an exit point, and I don't believe a safe entry point will occur until after the next earnings report.

  • Reply to

    Sick of GILD

    by brrycohen Jan 15, 2015 3:19 PM
    bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Jan 15, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    While I don't believe in paid bashers, I do believe that posters who cry "I'm throwing in the towel!" or "fed up with this stock," are never longs, but shorts .. usually via a few put options. And you know the poster who advises you to "buy and cover at 86" has gambled a few hundred bucks on the 90 puts. I think those who own the puts expiring tomorrow will regret not selling them today since there are enough to draw the price up toward 100. I may buy some for a daytrade. But at this point I can't envision going back in for longer until after the earnings. I also think this stock isunder distribution here - when large holders want to unload a position, they run the stock up on light volume at the open and then walk it down. And when they run it up at the open and it then flatlines, they are shorting the stock at that plateau.

ARNA
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