Not having looked in on this chronicle of folly for a while, I thought I'd check and see if the continuing nosedive has tempered the enthusiasm on this board. Apparently not. Fantasies of short squeezes and predictions of great victories still abound and are showered with "thumbs ups". Dissenters are scorned. And a stock which has moved from 9 to 5.82 ytd is favored with over 100 active topics already today. INCY has moved from 17.28 to 36.13 ytd and only has 3 active topics at this point. ACAD has advanced from 4.95 to 24.23 ytd and only sports 10 active topics. AMAG has risen from 16.20 to 26 ytd and has no active topics today. For sheer bravado in the face of disaster, only DNDN approaches ARNA: down from 6 to 3.18 ytd, with over 50 active topics today. Why? I'd suggest that both of these stocks, while disastrous for longs, are predictable cash cows for the options MM's. And that many of the perennial optimists here are shilling for these people. Otherwise how do you explain the phenomenon of the Titanic sinking while these cheerful souls not only spurn the lifeboats, but seem to be signing up for the return voyage?
PS PCYC - not exactly an under-the-radar stock - is up from 62.70 to 123.30 ytd. And yet there are only three active topics on the Yahoo! board today. Two of these are attempting to tout other pharma stocks.
The lovely thing to watch is the little dip after the open - the hook which invariably entices the unfortunate shorts in to double up. The real squeeze is just starting here. Nothing is stupider than chasing a bad short up in my experience.
Just like an anaconda crushing his victim. If there are enough unfortunate shorts to keep this going - and this stock was heavily shorted over the last three sessions -we should finish at the high of the day.
Hey, hedge. You are obviously more addicted to watching car wrecks than I. I note the absence of red, levinsky, et al; but it's like the Red Chinese in Korea: You mow them down, but they keep on coming. Speaking of which, not since Chiang Kai Shek has a proven loser had so many loyal followers.
One obvious difference might be that while the analysts project ARNA's 2014 revenues to be about 2% higher than 2013's, PCYC's revenues are expected to roughly double over that period.
I haven't posted here since June, I think. By the way, the reason I originally became a kind of Cassandra here was that for far too many, this WAS the only stock in their portfolio. The bizarre notion that the shorts are "trapped" while the stock continues to drop is just too silly to warrant comment. On one point, I think you're right: Anybody who sees "value" here probably does have half a brain.
You own a stock which, in the face of 20%+ ytd rally in the S&P (and much greater gains in the pharma indices - is down about 35%. The fact is, it became evident on the Qsymia launch, and doublly evident when ARNA had to follow their lead and essentially give the product away in order to move it, that profitability is a long way off for either of these companies.
No, it doesn't. Cheap stocks attract smalltime speculators. (Which doesn't mean that they're always wrong.) But you would have done much better on Jan1 to buy GILD at 38 or CELG at 82 than ARNA at 9. The obvious corollary of your observation is that a $9 stock which falls to 5.82 is no different than a $90 stock which falls to 58.20.
The stock price itself is a consensus estimate of value - real, implied, and future. The stock price is down about 35% ytd. My observation about message board activity was to suggest that when large numbers of pumpers continue to flog a proven loser, they may have ulterior motives.
No, he did stop for about 30 seconds there -- while he was no doubt adding to his short position on the little drop there. I still say it will close at or near the high of the day. And will open up tomorrow in any case.
Just pull down the little menu under the flag on his post and put him on "ignore"
Guy Adami (sp?), that fellow on "Fast Money" once said that 2 good rules were (1) Never trade out of boredom, and (2) Never trade out of anger. The latter is just another way, obviously of saying "Don't fight the tape."
This is such a rich kernel of absurdity. Investors bought in under 4. Didn't sell at 13 ...or 10 ..or 8 ...or 6, and are still holding at 5.81. Yep, that sure sounds like the smart money. As for the" selloff that will never happen", what do you think has been happening for the past year?
Institutional holdings, it should be noted, include any shares held in a margin account. So If you have a margin account at Schwab or TD Ameritrade, your holdings are recorded in their name, therefore "institutional". You should also note that institutional holdings include both long and short positions. Which explains why institutional holdings on heavily shorted stocks like Tesla are often well above 100%.
Well, that 22.50 has seemed suspiciously sticky for quite some time. Since that is the max pain level, it should close near that price today. The inability of the stock to participate in the general uptrend of the pharmas recently has caused me to lighten up my position, although I still hold 7,000 shares. The short interest more than doubled during August and is probably even larger now. Smells funny.
No, you really can't move 135,000shares AH without moving the needle. That is a bookkeeping entry, amalgamating many previous trades, and usually indicating a large standing order being filled. Since the stock never penetrated that 22 price I would assume that it was a sell order. Which is not necessarily a bad thing, since the stock was probably just being passed from one hand to the other. Is someone due another royalty payment?