Strange then that of the 17 analysts Yahoo! covers, 7 have raised their estimates in the last 30 days and none have lowered them. You should consider that sales of the HIV drugs have been strong lately.
Just a note: The only way retail investors make serious money in the market is by buying good companies and holding onto them forever. I made a lot of money by buying GILD last year, but obviously screwed up by selling my remaining position just above 100. The moral: Who cares where this goes Tuesday/Wednesday? Up 5 points or down 5 points.. Big deal. I have a small position now and will double up on it after earnings. The current trend is to take profits on good news.
Well, if AMZN continues to weaken Monday, I suspect that everything will.
There are two main pools of HCV infection in the US: Older people who were infected through unscreened blood transfusions, and young people who are infected through dirty needles. The older people, many of whom are in advanced stages of he disease are probably disproportionately represented in the Harvoni-treated population. Many of the younger people - mostly intravenous drug users - are unaware that they are infected. Heroin usage in the US has doubled over the past 6 years, and the new users are often middle-class whites. Until we start screening and treating people in jails and rehab centers, there will be no shortage of HCV patients.
I forgot that I also put a buy order for 500 shares @ 113.19 in my IRA, so I'm now mildly long. Given the BIIB plunge, I would expect a lot of people to be buying puts ahead of earnings, which could take us down some more, I assume. Not a lot of bargain hunters in this market.
Freddy, I know you have profited handsomely by being a longtime holder of BIIB. (a ten-bagger?) So you can afford to take the long view. However, anyone who entered since 2014 has now seen their profit evaporate in one day. Of course, you're right about the "earnings miss" - if GILD fell 17 cents short of the consensus estimate, I don't think it would be any big deal. Like you, I bailed out of MDVN after having made some good profit in the past. The impetus was C-S's reduced earnings forecast which cited shorter duration of treatment for Xtandi. Forgot that I had an order in for 500 shares of GILD in the IRA at 113.19, which filled. Also forgot about several buy orders for AAL around 40. Maybe I'm getting too old for this stuff. Good luck.
According to today's WSJ, GAAP earnings were $3.93, vs a consensus prediction of $4.10. ($4.22 was the non-GAAP number.) The forecast of 6-8% growth this year vs the previous forecast of 14-16% was obviously the more serious issue. Tecidifera is not looking like the big success that everyone expected. The fact that they reported two disappointing drug trials last week didn't help either. With Rituxan coming off patent next year, they need new drugs in the pipeline desperately.
Frankly, I think the amount of money one has is irrelevant here. If you have $5,000 and lose $500 of it, it's as painful as losing $500,000 of your $5,000,000. Besides, you cannot possibly have any idea of how much money I have. And it would be literally impossible for GILD to have an earnings miss on the scale of BIIB's miss.
UAL sold off 3 1/3 points yesterday on strong earnings, but held up well in today's airline debacle. I had several buy orders in for AAL between 40.08 and 40.48, and when I came back from lunch, found that they had filled. Hoping that this can bounce Monday.
As it moved up to 13.30, I raised my stop to 113.15 and went to lunch. When I got back, was surprised to find that it was taken out. I had tried to fish for a bottom at 113.60 earlier in the day, and lost heart at 113.10. This was sold relentlessly all day. Perhaps someone who was in commodities had a margin call. The only stock I can see in my portfolio with a strong bounce was FB.
All that's necessary for airline stocks to rally, it seems, is for oil to continue to fall while the dollar falls, too. This is, or course, extremely unlikely. So ultimately, we will be dependent on earnings, which is fine by me.
Oh, excuse me - you were predicting sub $110 for GILD. If you did, indeed, hold those CELG 120's, we will have to ascribe that to The Blind Squirrel Theorem. Unless, of course, you had inside knowledge of the Receptos acquisition. In which case - given all of the wonderful advice you've dispensed here - it seems callous of you not to share it.
This makes your July 10 prediction of "headed below $110" look disingenuous. Of course, there is always the possibility that you just make stuff up.
Sentiment, as expressed by the options, is not worth much. It depends on who is holding the positions. At expiration last month, GILD surprised a lot of people - including myself - by marching up through 120. If those 120 calls are in the hands of hedge funds, say, instead of hopeful retail investors, this could easily break 120 tomorrow. In spite of Stan's seemingly safe prediction. (You didn't short those calls, did you, Stan?)
But Stan, you were obviously invested in the 110 puts (viz your July 10 post "headed below $110" and your earlier prediction of $107.50.) In fact, the positions in both 110 and 115 puts for tomorrow was substantial and is now worthless. Yes, given the large position in 120 calls, it's unlikely that this level will be breached tomorrow. Even so, you could have made some serious money buying them when you were throwing your money away on those puts. In fact, it was folly to short any of the biotech stocks over recent weeks.
Excellent call, vision_316. We should all remember that the only people who have to buy soon after strong earnings are the shorts. Institutions don't pile into the stock immediately. They bide their time and add to their positions incrementally. As for the longs who expected a quick runup and sold, sometimes you just have to realize that good earnings are good earnings. The dip, which was explained as due to "lowered projections" was really due to their own naïve expectations.
And, as long as you're waiting until November, why not wait until 2016 and push your tax bill out another year? Of course, the ideal is to hold the stock and let your gains compound. (No reason why this stock can't go to 60, I believe.)
If you bought during the Ebola scare, at this point you have a gain of almost 14 points ... which is, as of yet, untaxed. If you wait until the end of October, this gain will be taxed as long term -- which could be anywhere from 0 - 30%, depending on your tax bracket. Even if you intend to lighten up your position, the stock would have to fall a good deal to make selling before November worthwhile.