Hey Kem...nothing to detailed but i gave them an uplift in valuation which brings the share value to 4.50 current float.... dilution by 50% due to the small dollar amount in the secondary which dilutes the 4.50 share price by 50% due to issuing a large secondary which takes the new share price back to 2.25... this of course is without a HR JV deal. If i recall the company was targeting an $8 secondary but that was based on an HR deal in place
B.. i have mentioned this before, i never get myself into a position to lose money on a stock...never, never, never.... this was based on advice from someone who made a ton of money in the markets.... you minimize exposure to losses and take your gains when in hand... if you sell now (which i am not suggesting as you have to decide) and the stock continues its downward spiral you end up in a good position, you can reenter the stock once the trend reverses and buy even more shares at the lower price... if this is the bottom and you sell, the stock heads higher you can reenter at a higher prices and need to think of those missed gains as insurance against your position..... If you do nothing and wait and see it looks like a 60 40 gamble to me at this stage since the trend is in favor of more downward pressure.... i have been doing this for a long time and my wealth changed in a positive way as soon as i began minimizing/eliminating losses... i never average down, i never try to figure out a bottom or a top for that matter... good luck
So true.... i sold out my shares over the last 3 days... stops for longs is set at 2.61 if the price hits that trigger this is back to the low 2's... shorting activity was non factor yesterday, yet the stock tanked again. I thonk Kem is right this is behaving like a secondary is on the way... price seems to be still volitile and the availablility of shares to short is growing so i beleive the shorts may take on the longs stop loss price and try to drive the stock down to the low 2's.... also concerned without a HR deal the company is bleeding cash with interest payments exceeding 40 mil per quarter... if no HRB deal soon a secondary will be required just to support the HRB project and then that wont address the 2 billion in debt.... technicals right now are a complete wreck, this being a quarter end mutual funds could be moving money around as well... i have decided to sit on the side lines and see if the price moves downward to test the stops for longs... if not and support builds i will jump back in albeit with a much smaller position... good luck laddies
Thanks all for sharing your thoughts.... to my knowledge KWK management has not updated it shareholders with the Q4 drilling program they announced durring their Q3 call, most orgs will do so and make a big deal of it.... the announced sale included a number of uses for these dollars, reminds me of people and tax refunds.... going to buy this and that and pay down my bills but the check doesn't cover all on the wish list.... just saying. I think the HR JV is still a long way out and when you have 40 to 50 million in interest charges every quarter, that is going to consume your earnings especially on a shrinking revenue base. There are a number of other areas within the world competing for the Japan sale. As of now without a deal or more cash KWK does not have the resources to develop HRB in a major way. It has been a year in the making and still nothing... Q3 was a miss on production numbers for various reasons. I say this is to risky and to dependant on one pony at least for me right now. Now talk cash flow, KWK has been operating with a negative cash flow for many quarters and the odd quarter with a positive cash flow is the direct result of a one time sale as we saw the other day or an increase in financing.... this is a train wreck with dwindling revenue which is accelerating compared to there interest charges... How many years back to you have to go to find a quarter that generated a positive cash flow from operations?
This my opinion.... lots out here waiting for the BIG announcement on HRB thinking this is going to save the day... no deal to date and no updates... last was the field was narrowed.... the question becomes what if no deal every comes or the deal becomes a steel due to desperation... the clock is ticking and yet nothing... i beleive the recent deal has investors now rattled as that deal came from out of no where... not much cash for an operational field generating earnings so must be seen as a dire need of cash.... i have believed all a long shorts have been waiting out the need for a secondary and i am now more than ever convinced that a secondary will come before any HR JV announcement. NG prices falling, KWK getting desperate for cash hence the need for secondary sooner than later.... i believe we all agree a secondary ws going to be needed but the hope was after HR deal and a secondary at $8.... i beleive a secondary is in the works now and will be issued at $2.25.... shorts look poised to win this battle... as a result i unload my 100,000 shares over the past 3 sessions securing some profit. I will continue to follow and if technicals seem to indcate some strength i will jump back in. to many winning stocks out there to sit and watch my money evaporate... good luck to you longs, i had wished for a better outcome
No mention anywhere in prospectus about any current litigation....only in america you can seek out thiers to end up holding the bag.... if DSS is successful this will bring a world of hurt to coupon and punish the unassuming shareholders if they use the prospectus for guidance... looks like they have about $60 million in cash and have yet to turn a profit IPO should raise $100 million plus but still not enough cash to cover the PI case with DSS... like every good US corp. they protect themselves with the following statement (this is right from the Prospectus:
In the ordinary course of business, the Company may be involved in lawsuits, claims, investigations, and proceedings consisting of intellectual property, commercial, employment, and other matters. The Company will record a provision for these claims when it is both probable that a liability has been incurred and the amount of the loss, or a range of the potential loss, can be reasonably estimated. These provisions are reviewed regularly and adjusted to reflect the impacts of negotiations, settlements, rulings, advice of legal counsel, and other information or events pertaining to a particular case. In the event that one or more of these matters were to result in a claim against the Company, an adverse outcome, including a judgment or settlement, may cause a material adverse effect on the Company’s future business, operating results, or financial condition.
The Company believes that liabilities associated with any claims are not probable and any reasonably possible range of losses cannot be estimated at this time, therefore the Company has not recorded any accrual for claims as of December 31, 2012 and 2013.
I hope we see a number of articles come out on Thursday prior to Coupons IPO
As you can see in S4 fillings, the EC team has their next round of shares vesting... you should see many of these small sales take place as more units begin to vest... these small sales are only coverign tax positions so the big question is when does jimmy and gang tank the stock by liquidiating all the options to be granted... i suspect he will continue to liquidate all these options as he has done in the past and driving stock price down... as you know i dumped my large position when when jimmy sold over a days worth of volume and dropped the stock price from which it has not recovered. feel bad for those that are heavily invested while this goes nowhere... for example when i dumped my shares i bought up FNMA at 3.20 just sold at 4.90... many other plays uot there where money can be made... with current volume and death grip by shorts and a CEO who manages hos portfoli over his responsibilty to mange the stock price for you this wont be going anywhere any time soon. Dont get me wrong i like the product, like the adoption rate but dont understand with current adoption and success why rev's arent higher ... nobody has a good handle on what they are charging and hence scares people from investing in future growth as you cant model it... when this stock is ready to run i will be there but for now it is dead money and when a little life seems to come to the stock the ceo sells out and tanks the stock. for those looking at making money ... fannie is getting oversold and i expect a slight pull back before another to $9.... another one to look at is KWK a gas company undervalued and has huge upside potential short trm target (my target) $11 just suggestions if you want your money to mutiple while you wait for this stock to get traction.
Shorts raised their stop to $4.04 which alings with the next major level of resistance.... if we can hot the trigger a run to $4.50 will happen quickly... technicals very strong, short selling is diminishing, 200,000 shares available to short
Shorts raised their stop to $3.99... next level of resistance is $4.04.. if we hit the trigger we should blow through the resistance... only 100,000 shares available to short ... enjoy the ride to next level... we are getting ready fro a significant breakout... technicals very very solid
We are heading to the first stop out for shorts... that is $3.65 if we get there that could very well trigger enough action to push us over $4.... interesting to see how this plays out over the 30 minutes or so... not many shares available to short only 300,000
It would appear that MITK is entering the period that exec's at MITK will have their RSU options vesting... at a minimal we see shares from these options sold to cover tax implications... Debello seems to have a history of liquidating these options in whole.... i disagree with visx but he makes compelling case, however the timelines dont align on the short control but now looking back and i think the mm are getting into sync with the vesting and selling of management options... mid feb theough early march appears when these RSU's will vest this year and if prior years pattern is follwed we will see these options be sold off latter this month and into early March... i do beleive this is why the sell off over the past few sessions
hey visx... i am looking at the short trading volume it has been less then a few hundred thousand shares on past two days volume of close to 1.9 million shares so it is not a short attack... to draw down from 300,000 to 25,000 shares over a few weeks is not going to impact price to this level especially with the large volume these past few sessions. There is also other reason shares become unavailable to be shorted, one is put your shares in the sell que if even at a crazy high price, these shares are then taken out shorts shares available... i beleive we have eroded support no news in near future to drive stock and this will continue downward no reason to buy right now... my opinion only
nope... sold of my position yesterday and looking for mid $4's before we see the bottom... this has been a big run off technicals all broken now and it has not been shorts driving price down, this is a liquidation of positions and will take some time to to retrace back to highs.... once this hits 4.90 next stop will be low 4's
i am interested in hearing anyone that has a thesis that would support the shorts taking such a large position.... i have heard nothing but support and yet each time someone comments how the stock is going up sometime the sock falls... we are now getting ready to move south below the last line of support and head back to the 4's. I have followed many companies with short interest and i have found that when shorts attack a stock with this volume they are usually right... shorts money is typically smart money.... what are we missing... maybe the business model is not a profitable model currently or into the future... with all the banks and so much activity in terms of usage why are rev's not higher... seems we all say that will come something is not right and broken....
O2C do you have any evidence to support the claim below? The current pps share is now on the last defense support line before heading south below $5... checked the short stock available and last week the shorts were not involved in driving the price down... it seems mm maybe moving out of the stock for some reason... i think it is the business model is not capable of producing a profit and with continued shares being issued to compensate exec's perhaps diluting share pool to an extent that any positiv earnings could be so diluted almost meaning less on a per share basis. I have followed (I have said this before) many companies that have a large short interesr compared to float.... most of the time the shorts are right over the long haul... short money is usually smart money... on the surface it would seam crazy to short MITK but yet a large short position exist my question is why and i do not believe USSA is holding this short position. Some mm are seeing something we are not.. only interested in hearing from those that have a thesis the shorts may be using to support their position.
Something is not right, someone has to be seeing what us longs are not... high short interest, earnings beat and PPS hammered... technicals now are broken down, next stop is 5.25 for weak support and from there down to $4.70 to $4.80 range... boy i would hate to see where this would have gone with a bad earnings report... any ideas what shorts are waiting for?
all this what you say is indeed great... not so excited about the growth... it is still a small revenue number... $4.5 Mil revenue, 1,362 banks live, that equates to $1100 per month from each "live bank" for a fantastic product... that does not even equate to half a salary at these banks..it just seems like there should be more and hence the revenue model confuses me
i am most troubled about revenue growth still dont understand exactly what they get paid for... i agree 100% about expenses and profit that will come with time and can be controlled down stream.... revenue is the driver... dont get me wrong i think the product works great, great job getting the product into market, i reduced position back when the stock was mid 6 only holding a few thousand shares now but i will accumulate on any dips to bring position upto 5,000 shares for now and see how things play out for the next quarter... i am very happy revenue was not in high 3's... looking forward to the call
just a guess based on pulling forward orders to the last q... we know i am wrong 4.5 was the right number beats analyst estimates and earnings beat estimates still not driving enough revenue in my opinion and i dont uderstand why... lets see how the market reacts