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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Message Board

bearstar721 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 26, 2015 12:45 PM Member since: Feb 15, 2006
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  • This morning's knee jerk reaction to cover or buy shares seems to be a relief rally from no estimate changes.
    However, the CEO promised last quarter that sales would dramatically accelerate -which has not been happening. By saying the back half of 2015 will be the period of higher growth is he not making another promising statement which cannot be verified for many months. Isnt his credibility at issue here?

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Feb 18, 2015 3:48 AM Flag

    How narrow minded of you! If they wanted to encourage participation they would hold the original meeting in person PLUS broadcast it online PLUS take questions from callers or from emailers.

  • They passed a rule saying they can hold "virtual" meetings ie online only. That way, they won't be embarrassed by awkward face-to-face questions - as in "Why has your stock declined by X %?"

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Feb 15, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Your analysis is old =dated. These advantages were evident years ago. Investing is not about theory - it is about choosing monopoly providers who squeeze every ounce of profit. Brian Drab of Blair did a very thorough study of emerging competition not just including HPQ. There is a new German competitor who is offering open consumerables which will destroy the margins of SSYS and DDD on provided consumerables.

  • Reply to

    Some thoughts on the strikes

    by bearstar721 Feb 2, 2015 12:03 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Feb 2, 2015 6:00 PM Flag

    You are far more advanced than most regarding earnings. However, aren't the $329 in derivative gains mainly or all paper gains based upon mark-to-marketing at the end of the quarter?

    It is a few days until I get access to any sell side notes regarding their reported reserves numbers.

    Did ask about drilling vs completions vs production - no major effects from drilling and then cementing the casings, then waiting for prices to rise. Thinking that a lot of operators are doing this.

    Agree with you re storage - the refineries have storage tanks and could have been renting them out, or contango storage at sea.

  • There may be a kneejerk selloff in WTI. However, the effect on demand for crude depends on how much supply of crude and distillates are on hand in the tanks at the being struck refineries; how many contractors and other non-union workers there are at being struck refineries;whether other refineries can take more crude; how long the strike lasts.

    As always the reporting has been simplistic.

    Also, I read that it takes 25-30 days to process crude into gasoline - don't know if that is still accurate.

  • Reply to

    Gotta Love That Dropping Rig Count

    by true_truth Jan 30, 2015 4:20 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 31, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    On inventory builds - I 'll ask a few folks at the Texas business school I am attending. Also,want to ask my production engin. prof about the consequences of drilling but not completing (deferring production). Rumors that it has been happening elsewhere.

    On your 2) - GS may be storing but wouldn't they release for sale at more opportune prices?

    On LPI strategy - occasionally I speak to sell side. If I have time, wil ask.

  • Reply to

    Gotta Love That Dropping Rig Count

    by true_truth Jan 30, 2015 4:20 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 30, 2015 8:09 PM Flag

    I gave you a thumb's up - Have a couple of points to supplement your thoughts over the weeks -First, the build in storage maybe reflects some contango or was just an odd number'; second, with four pay zones do we know whether all are proven now that the economics are so much lower and why do them simultaneously when you can perf one pay zone ,let it flow, than seal it and perf and flow another...?; third,
    if you believe in the theory that the Saudis and the US ( using traders like GS) drove down the price to break or weaken Russia, Iran, Venezuela then you could argue that GS was trying to keep prices down a little longer.

    How about that delegation annointing the new Saudi potentate! Incredible but why???

  • Reply to

    Best Buy news sure contributed to this fall

    by datafast01 Jan 15, 2015 1:26 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 15, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    No - the fall is correlated highly with another stock that I follow that is a small cap in security.

    The fall has been due to correlation with the indices plus small holder selling on momentum plus the failure so far of institutional buyers to step in - despite Barclays yesterday and JMP and probably JPM saying that the shares are now undervalued.

  • Reply to

    Where is all the volume?

    by bearstar721 Jan 15, 2015 10:40 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 15, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    History repeats itself in terms of your behavior - you ignored my question twice now as to whether the shares are generally available to short and if the naked shorting prohibition is still in effect. If the answer is yes to both, then some odd behavior by short sellers took place on Monday.

  • bearstar721 by bearstar721 Jan 15, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    The volume of shares traded... what happened to institutional buying or selling. Not expected.

    And the paid bashers are gone. Dentdebt (who did not answer my question about apparent naked shorting) is trying to be controversial as are the capital letter guys.

    I now believe that the fearful hedgies will slowly pick up some shares. The CEO is probably scaring some of them off - with his aggressiveness and non East coast ways.

  • Reply to

    10% drop can no longer be shorted

    by td5221 Jan 13, 2015 8:09 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 13, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    I already asked - how is that sellers were able to borrow shares if they were none available and naked shorting is supposedly taboo. You posed a second good question.

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 13, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    Is this your imagination or do you have a source? Are you referring to their outside counsel?

  • Doughterty on Bloomberg. In addtion, the JMP analyst told Reuters: "We look at it as a buying opportunity at JMP, because what we saw out of the Consumer Electronics Show at Las Vegas last
    week is that GoPro remains the undisputed leader in the action capture device category," Gauna said.

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 12, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    How would it work - can you describe the methodology? And if the shares are not available to short?

  • Reply to

    Down because French terrorist fans of Gopro?

    by hey_rob69 Jan 12, 2015 3:41 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 12, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    I agree but I found stories in mid October when there was a downdraft about three weeks before earnings -
    "GoPro (GPRO) is feeling the backlash that most companies hope to avoid - a core product linked to a high-profile accident...In this particular case, GoPro's rugged videocamera was attached to the helmet of Formula One driver Michael Schumacher during a recent ski trip..... The stock was down more than 10 % that day.

    The short selling sydicate(s) pay for negative posts and probably capitalised on the headline today. GPO shares did recover soon after that.

  • Honestly, such drivel. A new name for every message. And then when the stock rises, you and your messages disappear ... just as longs on this board are too frightened or dispirited to post.

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 11, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    Though Greenrush sounds like a typical long cheerleader, his optimism is justified according to a note put out by Morgan Stanley last week: "Retailers indicated little perceived competition
    from Sony and Garmin, while anecdotes of mass purchases by tourists at
    major metropolitan locations may suggest robust international demand." This was taken up by the FT and Reuters on Friday. I think the selloff midweek was because of the caution of the CFO, no specifics by the CEO, and glitz regarding models by the lagging competitors.

    Faucette of MS also wrote "We estimate that retailers sold through over 1M GoPro
    units in December alone. Considering the strong launch of the HERO4 product
    line in September, we think GoPro should easily meet our estimate of 2.1M
    units shipped for the December quarter."

  • Reply to

    Can I get some thoughts and help

    by benjaminne2004 Jan 10, 2015 12:00 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 10, 2015 1:48 PM Flag

    First, you misspelled "there" = their and "effect" = affect. Common errors.
    Second, I looked at the online Best Buy and Amazon sites. They were both sold out for the 3 principal Hero models after Xmas; now they are not. I called my local Best Buy store after Xmas - it was sold out for these - today the Black and Silver are in stock.

    GPRO is on a December quarter system. They probably book revenue when units are shipped, less returns,"We rely on contract manufacturers for the production of our cameras and accessories. All of the components that go into the manufacture of our cameras and accessories are sourced from third-party suppliers, and some of these suppliers are the sole source for important components. We utilize third-party logistics providers for product fulfillment."

    I believe they will benefit from some sales being deferred into the current quarter and also they will benefit from more sales of the higher margin Black and Silvers, due to the non-availability of the basic model.

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 9, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Your ideas are absurdly oversimplified - the growing middle class has a population which is larger than the US in total. Many prefer name brands - most obvious example is Apple. You are also out of date regarding the average income of the middle class Chinese ( which is the fastest growing tourist group to visit Macy's in NYC, for example.). This century is Chinese - we are only no.2 as an economic power.

PANW
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