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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Message Board

bearstar721 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 28, 2015 10:28 AM Member since: Feb 15, 2006
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  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Nov 28, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    2) is not accurate, 3) =4) and is merely speculative, 5) is not a headwind, just repetitive, 6) is a cliche and anyone who would do tax selling has already left.

    A very poor effort at logical exposition,

  • Read a CNBC piece from September.

    I admire the acumen signaled in the article. When he first came to power I also admired him but stayed away from the sector.

    On the other hand, a pure capitalist-titan like this does not think about moral responsabilities, and perhaps worse, is prone to sins of commission or omission,especially if there are signs that the growth rate and high gross margins are falterings. So some selloff was bound to happen. This one does seem overly large.

  • bearstar721 by bearstar721 Nov 18, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    Using the Sterne Agee model , the cost of the quarter lost ( so far) of Cotai is $62 million in EBITDA or some 25c in the Q2 2016 EPS. A 25c miss is substantial especially since so many commentators and analysts are fixated on Cotai as the savior of Wynnn, For example, the DB analyst wrote in April :" The call on Wynn here is purely Cotai focused. We are making the bet that Cotai is a category killer."

    Looking at the Morgan model which had a target price of $88 including $21 for Cotai you have to assume a lowering of the target price of about $5 as a result of the delay.

  • Reply to

    Will be $125-130 in a month

    by neodinium1978 Oct 22, 2015 2:48 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Nov 16, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    No. Rather than pretending and misleading, spend a day learning DCF analysis.

  • Reply to

    What's with the ongoing bloodbath?

    by sevenfriesans Nov 12, 2015 8:31 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Nov 16, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    Apparently the company mis-stated their margins outlook and the reaction of buyside was a sell-off. Buy side firms cover tens if not hundreds of conpanies badly. They oversimplify just as the vast majority of yahoo posters do. Buy side managers just look at margins, EBITDA growth rates, did they beat or not.

    On Thursday the company called the analysts and posted a correction on their website , which is now turning the stock price around.

  • Reply to

    Will be $125-130 in a month

    by neodinium1978 Oct 22, 2015 2:48 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Nov 16, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    It does not sound like you know how to do a DCF model. Is your required return your WACC? And fcf for only 1 year? And what in the world is "a 6 % return for each of the next 10 years"???? No one who models properly would ever talk like that.

  • Reply to

    Internet sales?

    by topline1 Oct 29, 2015 11:10 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Oct 31, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    It is rare that questions such as yours are answered. However, I will present the exception - Kohl does not disclose online sales numbers. However, my source who follows the company tells me it is about 20%.

    Your logic seems fine - I am sure that online growth is faster than instore growth - but do not have numbers.

    I cannot understand why they heavily discounted cold weather clothing so early in the Autumn - unless they overstocked and was not confident of selling it without such promotions.

  • Reply to

    LBO or T/O at $70

    by garyg474 Oct 30, 2015 12:35 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Oct 30, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    Some of your unsubstantiated statements are not true - KSS is essentially an apparel store ( greater than 50% of top line) and Amazon is fast expanding into apparel , as customers get more at ease in buying on spec.

    I have no idea of the inner workings of the Amazon business model and suspect you are equally unfamiliar with it.

    The real estate options were supposedly a floor to the share price but we know from looking at SEARS
    how frail that argument is.

  • bearstar721 by bearstar721 Oct 29, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    Has any one read their "Greatness Agenda" press release? It sounded like it was written by the Communist Chinese or Soviets under Stalin. Pompousity to the extreme, completely hypocriitcal, For example, go to the website and notice the models. There are no Hispanics though this is supposed to be a focal group.

    And look at "Easy Experience" - that's years behind competitors.

    Or this term "engagement" - meaningless verbiage.


  • Reply to

    q3 results

    by aegwal Oct 15, 2015 7:30 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Oct 15, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    agree CEO was disappointing and very guarded. on the last call he was asked by Baird his vision and said nothing. Baird sounded bothered. this time as you said - he was bland. However, maybe Barclays was satisfied as they issued a note midday yesterday and the shares rebounded thereafter.

    I don't know why they announced earnings one week early and why they only gave notice the night before.

    the models were updated last night and this morning. next week will be dull.

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Oct 5, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    There was an upgrade but not by taglich brothers - it was by Dan Katz,now of Telsey. He has a poor record.

    Also, at the risk of sounding like a know it all, the first days of Golden Week did attract more mass market visitors to Macau. However, Sunday was -20% because a typhoon blew in. So the visitation gains were nullified.

  • Reply to

    Hurricane Sandy

    by moonthetune24 Sep 30, 2015 4:26 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Sep 30, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    Some differences - Sandy was much wider, and the correct predictor (ECMWF) then is now predicting that Joaquin will miss land. See Wikipedia.


    From a speculative point of view it is probably too late.

  • bearstar721 by bearstar721 Sep 12, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Valuations are much too high for this company. Pet food is EXTREMELY competitive and dry/canned foods are all marked "natural". There is no way to differentiate except through advertising. I read that the
    overall pet food market in the US is only growing at 1%.( their S-1 is misleading: "U.S. pet food retail sales grew 62% between 2004 and 2014, which represents a CAGR of 5%, based on data from Euromonitor." Why would this company grow much faster than the industry, unless they sacrifice margins to do so.

    Which makes me think that the IPO was a cash out for the Bishop family and Invus, seeing mediocre growth and future bad publicity if not liability from the Purina lawsuit.

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Sep 9, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    You and Josephblough are the two most pathetic, childish , LOL investors I have come across. Probaby you are contrary indicators.

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