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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Message Board

bearstar721 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 4, 2016 11:49 AM Member since: Feb 15, 2006
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  • The results were poor but obvious. The short interest is high - there has been covering. The CEO composed her speech about the food poisoning and improves on it each time she is asked expected questions. Of course I believe BWLD will continue to see deteriorating operating efficiencies. However, I do not go into conspiracy theories ( the "market is rigged" and all that whining).

  • Reply to

    How many are sick??

    by salem06410 Feb 3, 2016 11:48 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Feb 3, 2016 6:51 PM Flag

    The food poisonings ( see my note earlier about Dayton) and the miss are probably related, just as they were for Chipotles. These high PE companies are losing market share and slowing down rapidly so they counter
    by reducing the number or quality of their kitchen staff to try to enhance their margins and EPS.

  • Davis - I hate to called a liar, Read the end of the para.

    6050 SniderRoad,Mason Date ofinspection: Dec.21 Violations: TCS foods were not being held at the proper temperature.Traditional wings in hot-holding drawerholding at 120F. Wings discarded at time of inspection.To prevent the growth ofpathogens,except during preparation,cooking, orcooling,orwhen time is used as a public health control,TCS food shall be held at 135Forabove (except that roasts cooked using time and temperature parameters in 3717-1-03.3 may be held at 130F),orat 41Forless. In-use utensils are improperly stored.Ice scoop forsoft drink fountain stored in rack that has chipping paint.During pauses in food preparation or dispensing,food preparation and dispensing utensils shall be stored as described in this rule. Equipment and/or components are not maintained in good working order.Drawerwarmerused to hold traditional chicken wings holding at 120F.t,utensils, orlinens,orunwrapped single-service orsingle-use articles and does not apply in areas used only forstoring food in unopened packages. An infrared orotherheat lamp shall be protected against breakage by a shield surrounding and extending beyond the bulb so that only the face ofthe bulb is exposed. Comments: Received a complaint that a customer visited the facility on Dec.15, 2015,at around 3 p.m.The customerbecame ill after eating 10 boneless sweet barbecue wings with ranch dressing.Upon inspection, the managerinformed me that the boneless wings are pre-cooked and are received frozen and maintained frozen until cooked to an internal temperature of165F. Aftercooking the boneless chicken wings are held in a drawer warmeruntil they are ordered.The wings are only the boneless chicken wings are held in a drawerwarmeruntil they are ordered.The wings are only held hot foras long as the cooking time ofthe wings, which is no more than 10 minutes perthe manager. Once ordered,the wings are spun in sauce buckets and served or packaged in a to-go container

  • A few weeks ago a health inspector came out to a Pennsylania restaurant after a complaint. The Department of Health was told that BWLD cooks the chicken at a central point , freezes and ships it to the "restaurant." Back in the so-called kitchen ,they thaw out the chicken, heat it ,and dip into sauce buckets. No wonder it has little or no flavor and is dry.

    Now, they may have a new spin - reconstituted wing meat, which is then frozen,and shipped.

  • Their CFO retired, they missed the numbers as expected,and they now say NO MORE YEAR TO DATE numbers for the 1st quarter. You saw this alot when retail clothiers got soft - no more monthly numbers. And they were also csreful
    to note that the 2016 EPS outlook is a "goal" to reduce their potential legal liability.

  • Reply to

    wealth effect gone POOF!

    by unclebobbyrednecker Jan 20, 2016 2:04 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 25, 2016 6:47 PM Flag

    I agree of course. What shocks me is the lack of research and the stubbornness of some on this and other retail boards but scott fearon wrote about rigidities in Dead Man Walking. The retirement announced today and the departures go along with the selling by management (vest today, sell today). There was also a lowering of numbers over the weekend by an analyst though have not seen the note.

  • Reply to

    Sam getting desperate? Rebel Beer half price !!

    by acs.chuckie Jan 21, 2016 7:53 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 22, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    Sounds like an overstatement. Where did you see this - one store, or more?

  • Reply to

    wealth effect gone POOF!

    by unclebobbyrednecker Jan 20, 2016 2:04 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 20, 2016 2:18 PM Flag

    My GodI I was just thinking of the wealth effect , which I learned at school, and how no one talks about it!

    Hope I am not in too deep on this one - my $150 in 2-4 months might be too conservative but I have to figure out whether it's only more competition and more choices... or,whether consumers are turning away from sweet products such as OLD ORCHARD.

  • Reply to

    $155 target gettin' closer!

    by unclebobbyrednecker Jan 15, 2016 8:48 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 15, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    Like your fun, mock southern #$%$ dialogue. Don't come out of it!

    There is no point for a target if the numbers for sales keep going down.

  • Reply to

    Economic Uncertainty

    by unclebobbyrednecker Jan 7, 2016 9:44 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 7, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    Nice title and a funny quote yesterday. Maybe I will rewatch that movie as it seems to be about risk taking.

    Covered my short on SAM this morning but I think there are other "shoes" to fall. There's some red flags and growth is slowing for them including on hard cider. $150 is a real possibility- maybe in 2-4 months. PE is not so useful for a
    deccelerating company.

  • Reply to

    Shocked that no one on this board

    by bearstar721 Jan 6, 2016 10:44 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Jan 6, 2016 12:35 PM Flag

    Uncle Bobby,

    I am with you. Would drink a Ballast Point to a Sam's. Anything else you're sceptical about?

  • bearstar721 by bearstar721 Jan 6, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    and the nut cases on this board.

  • I would have thought there would be more participation from beer drinkers. Maybe the share price is too high for retail;
    yahoo posters are older and drink less; the stock is not volatile enough... Disappointing for the posts, apart from "happy ner year all."

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Dec 29, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    The last three quarters show -6m, -28m, and -17m income before tax, and due to the higher markdowns
    expecting something worse than last quarter.

  • bearstar721 bearstar721 Dec 29, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

    No , you are incorrect. I have been long PLAY and HOLX from time to time, and certain restructures when there are catalysts.

  • The high level of discounting of products, the reduced traffic, and accelerating losses are fundamental worries.

    The source last week of a buyout rumor was dubious.

    The gradual erosion of the share gains, despite the markets being up today so strongly, suggests profit taking.

    Holders are lucky , I believe, that the analysts are away.

  • Reply to

    OPRAH

    by siestacottage Dec 27, 2015 7:05 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Dec 27, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Thanks. That's helpful. Where did you see i? How would you rate the ad?

  • Reply to

    Bolder prediction while just under $41

    by xec7 Dec 24, 2015 10:46 AM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Dec 25, 2015 7:57 PM Flag

    First, thank you for supporting me on the VRX board. It was a very profitable position I exited just after the investor day.

    As I mentioned I specialise in turnarounds and restructurings.Have done so for years and now am armed with further business school training.

    CAS - read the most recent transcript of the cc. Think it is too early for a customizer in metal products of oil and gas. Companies are cannibalising existing platforms and further reducing capex.

    CXRX - I am not sure if I am willing to put the effort in. Don't know the analysts covering and there are so many shorting opportunities.

    VRX - noticed that the uber capitalist has pneumonia. I got double pneumonia during late December while at college and it is vitiating. Didn't fully recover for a couple of months.

  • Reply to

    looking very very bd...huge sell off and no news

    by gtman888 Dec 24, 2015 12:59 PM
    bearstar721 bearstar721 Dec 24, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    You and I are thinking about the same dynamic - even though I closed my short at $18 - I do not have reason to believe there will be any oprah commercials in the near future. If there are,and they are well made, I would become a long holder.

    Why don't I believe there will be commercials out soon? First, no one knows the name of the ad agency.The ad agency who had the account for Spring and Summer are no longer engaged. Second, there are no rumors of an imminent ad and the Dec 7 ads seemed to be it. Oprah did not indicate any concrete timeframe.

  • Only retail was buying today ( most institutional investors are on holiday);
    Retail seems more long than short and, if short, some were covering in fright today;
    All of the senior analysts ha ve been on holiday (which is why there is no rebuttal of the silly rumor of the
    company shopping itself).

LGF
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