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SIGA Technologies, Inc. Message Board

beavertail_splash 510 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Apr 13, 2007
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  • beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Thanx for posting this breakdown Cincinatti.
    So PCYC got 150mil up front, GERON gets $35mil Similar milestone payments aggregate $800 vs $900 for GERON. Responsible for 40% of development costs where as GERON's is 50% and the biggy is they get 50% of the profits where as GERON only realizes 15-20% which exact detail was left unclear in the CC. They obviously made out better by a factor of 3 on the bottom line. J&J has learned to sharpen their pencil in 3 years.

  • Reply to

    PCYC signed the same kind of deal with J&J in 2011

    by avlktsvra Nov 14, 2014 12:50 PM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    have you read the terms of that deal?

  • beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    I totally agree he should be compensated in shares. He might have a different perspective to shareholders. The deal with JJ basically gave away Geron's one and only drug which could potentially bring $11b to Janssen, meanwhile GERN gets only 15% -20% royalties and must pay for half of the development of IMET using milestone payments from Janssen. Everyone keeps referring to PCYC which received a much more favorable 50/50 deal from J&J.

  • Reply to

    Question about scope of royalties ...

    by eireamerica Nov 15, 2014 8:49 AM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    ...hence the big rally. The market thought the deal sucks

  • Reply to

    A Plan For J&j Takeover Ultimately

    by mruyog Nov 14, 2014 9:27 AM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    Joanie a 37 cent rally is hardly forcing 30,000,000 shorts to cover. Notice that no news event moves this stock anymore. It's as dead as is your proverbial short squeeze. The last short I played was BP.

  • beavertail_splash by beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDQgVh1HbSQ

  • beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 5:19 AM Flag

    yeah just another 6,114,130 shorts trying to capsize the life boats. 20% of the float.

  • a week after FDA full clinical hold is lifted. 5-10 ASH papers/session presentations are announced followed by a big brother partnership (albeit I think JJ stole all my lunch money going fwd.) A 31,428,604 vol. day and the SP sits at a 37 cents gain. This is insane.

  • Reply to

    A Plan For J&j Takeover Ultimately

    by mruyog Nov 14, 2014 9:27 AM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 3:52 AM Flag

    J&J gets reimbursed by GERON 50% for their part of shared development costs from the milestone payments made to GERON. An additional 15-20% royalty is a sweet deal for J&J realizing they've just taken control of a $11billion dollar drug. (INCY Jakafi comparison)
    Geron breaks even with all their 2 decades of research and shareholder equity. I`d invest in Janssen Biotech, but I can't Janssen is a private subsidiary of J&J. All of their big money makers are out of reach to the average investor as has IMET recently become.

  • Reply to

    I would keep your shares!

    by drivingmustangs Nov 14, 2014 3:10 PM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 3:44 AM Flag

    " why didn't J&J just buy them?"...because J&J wanted to steal it instead, which they did. Self centered CEO gets his 12mil salary while the drug is brought to the market, SP remains depressed as to devalued expectations on profits and any low ball offer in 5 years would be widely accepted by any LT bag holding shareholders left. There you have it. Data next month at ASH will confirm Imet's efficacy. INCY will have a few years left but this all becomes a game changer which only J&J will win.

  • Reply to

    Didn't get my 2.65 today...

    by pennyvulture Nov 14, 2014 3:49 PM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 15, 2014 2:24 AM Flag

    Maine you're the one posting the 'SALE' impacted conjecture all of a sudden. Is that the last hope for a SP increase now?
    This whole deal wreaks of the current corporate American culture where everyone except the small investor makes out like a bandit. When asked if Geron had entertained a competitive bidding process our CEO was far too aloof to answer citing privacy concerns. This was my money not his. He has not purchased one single share to support his lifestyle yet is evasive when asked about simple disclosure on the bidding process. Wonder if INCY was even involved.
    The last few buyout deals I was involved with were a pittance of what would have been the case a decade ago. They were so complicated and stacked in the favor of the purchaser and BoD seller with the shareholder given a pittance by comparison. J&J appears to be the big winner in this deal. $1Billion-$500mil worth of potential development expenses that GERN must pony up using their milestone payments is chump change for J&J gaining a potentially multi $billion drug. GERN basically breaks even and Scarlet will get his big signing bonus if a buyout ever comes to fruition. In the mean time he can spend his time burning rubber out front at the office parking lot in Menlo California.
    You think Chippy will be in any rush to sell the company with this deal in place? Figure @ $2.3mil x5 years he'll be pulling in over $12million. Great gig when you can find one. Me I'll be lucky to break even in that time frame. I won't hold my breath for any further pipeline development coming out of the recently gutted Menlo office building.
    We clearly have a product here that is far superior to Jakafi, the only competition out there that Imet will replace. Kudos goes to Gern's former science research team. Even stated this in the 8-K. For a similar outstanding share comparative we sit at $2.50 whilst INCY is in the $70's

  • Reply to

    Explanation of the deal

    by v.stroetzel Nov 14, 2014 6:24 PM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    and where did you hear that rumor? Some Puritan's manifest destiny log book?

  • Reply to

    Didn't get my 2.65 today...

    by pennyvulture Nov 14, 2014 3:49 PM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 9:30 PM Flag

    REG SHO Overview
    The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has adopted amendments to Regulation SHO Most recently, the SEC introduced a short sale-related circuit breaker that, when triggered, will impose a restriction on prices at which securities may be sold short. View the final rule.
    Circuit Breaker List
    The SEC adopted amendments to Regulation SHO with a compliance date of February 28, 2011. Among the rule changes, the SEC introduced Rule 201 (Alternative Uptick Rule), a short sale-related circuit breaker that when triggered, will impose a restriction on prices at which securities may be sold short. The SEC also issued guidance for broker-dealers wishing to mark certain qualifying orders "short exempt." For more details, refer to the final rule

  • Reply to

    Didn't get my 2.65 today...

    by pennyvulture Nov 14, 2014 3:49 PM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    ...well it certainly isn't the CEO

  • Reply to

    Didn't get my 2.65 today...

    by pennyvulture Nov 14, 2014 3:49 PM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 9:19 PM Flag

    Pennyvulture, I check the Regulation SHO list and GERN's not on it so there are no naked shorts accounted for. .

  • Reply to

    Didn't get my 2.65 today...

    by pennyvulture Nov 14, 2014 3:49 PM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    Irish who's betting against IMET.
    I'm happy for you & John and glad the drug has such "big" backing and will definitely move fwd. quickly now. I'm happy for Dr T to be in line with taking this fwd. with J&J. I'm happy for Chippy getting his substantial compensation for porch sport racing. But with only a .40 cent gain on the J&J deal, the market obviously wasn't that into it. I was hoping to break even. I am not happy to be eating taters and twigs all winter long that is if they last that long. Thank you for all your contributions, without which I would have probably sold much earlier. Speaking of winter of discontent is that a Russian two headed eagle imperial symbol I see, my poor vision is clouded by my current state of depression. Wishful, magical thinking just doesn't cut the mustard when it comes to investing & going bust losing one's hard earned savings.

  • beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    "What the bashers don't want you to know is that this partnership will just be the first in the series"
    ....really what are the next additional partnerships? Gern's Grand Theft Auto drag car racing circuit?

    Investors Guide to Wealth "WHAT I LEARNED ABOUT RUNNING A BUSINESS BY RACING A PORSCHE" answer: once you have the keys you can drive as fast as you want and nobody can catch you.
    The market obviously didn't think the deal was good. We are now below where the initial hold was implemented in March and after the $4 shelf was exercised in January.
    I'm glad MF patients like Irish's husband John will still be receiving treatment with IMET but today I'm extremely sad as to how this has all gone down. With 25mil shares already traded I doubt we will ever see any proverbial short squeeze in this stock. The 50/50 cost sharing deal with J&J may leave GERN with not much more than a company shell to support it's board, their life style and not much else.

  • Reply to

    My take on the Janssen deal

    by sdrawkcabeman Nov 14, 2014 12:11 AM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    like I said exact numbers weren't given rather a tiered range starting in the mid teens 15% up to 23%.
    Is this std practice wrt royalties given additional milestone payments from which GERN must share some costs?

  • Reply to

    My take on the Janssen deal

    by sdrawkcabeman Nov 14, 2014 12:11 AM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 6:49 AM Flag

    GERN holds the patents for anything related to telomerase. Must go through GERN with over 200 telomerase patents that are good until 2023 and beyond.

  • Reply to

    My take on the Janssen deal

    by sdrawkcabeman Nov 14, 2014 12:11 AM
    beavertail_splash beavertail_splash Nov 14, 2014 6:40 AM Flag

    I'm disappointed we didn't have a bidding war. I agree this reads too much like a 401K plan.

SIGA
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