Open market insider transactions prove to be profitable less than 50% of the time. If there is a large number of open market insider buying (or selling) then the odds of success improves to more than 50%.
Considering the recent RTI acquisition (by Alcoa), which I think was at a price of roughly 1.5X RTI's annual revenues,, I would guess an acquirer would value AA at $30 billion, or approximately $22 per share,
I arrive at that figure by using 1.5X Alcoa's annual sales ($36 billion), subtracting AA's $7 billion or so net debt,
and adding $1 billion for Alcoa's brand name value.
All of the above just a wild guess, my numbers above are likely way off what metals industry and, or investment baking industry people would use.
Considering that the deal (including the ratio of shares for shares) was established months ago , why is it relevant to AA's current stock price trading ?
Specifically, all RTI shareholders , if they did not want to own AA stock, had months to sell their RTI shares.
And those AA share owners who did not like the acquisition, also have had months to sell their AA stock and be done with the company.
CHK has tangible assets. But, the debt service level, combined other annual operating expenses, declining revenues, and relatively small company cash reserves, makes filing for bankruptcy a reasonable possibility.
If natural gas and oil prices remain at current levels, or decline, then CHK likely has little chance to avoid bankruptcy. This is true for many companies operating within the oil and gas industry.
All factors considered I believe a near term CHK price of $4 or $5 per share might be a point where enough risk taking buyers would emerge to stabilize the stock price. Remember, a bankruptcy filing would mean a share price of about 0, and here at nearly $10 per share that is more risk than most buyers are willing to assume.