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becarefulwhatyoupay 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 12, 2016 12:28 PM Member since: Jun 13, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Even $6.00 is to high price for AA

    by ryangaib Apr 12, 2016 11:54 AM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Apr 12, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Considering the company's debt level, little to no sales revenue growth, and low profit margins, I believe $2 to $3 per share is a real possibility. In the coming quarters I expect AA will record some significant operational financial losses.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Apr 12, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    KK's agenda, since he arrived,, has been to do what he can to keep his salary. Specifically, he favors initiating multi year plans. This way, Alcoa may continue to record dismal business operating results, and KK then sells his stories of various multi year plans. For example, a few years ago it was the "acquisition of value added business lines" that was his favorite story. More recently , "dividing the company" became his mantra. And today, his newest story, to buy him more time , the story is "job cuts".
    Wall Street pros are not fooled by KK's nonsense, which is why AA stock has declined ever since KK arrived.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Apr 12, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    Actually, by overpaying to acquire companies, KK has weakened AA's balance sheet and put the company at financial risk.
    His most significant mistake, however, was the forthcoming plan to divide the company. This will increase costs , reduce economies of scale, and diminish current the company's current business synergy's.
    All factors considered AA stock here at this relatively high $9 stock price, is a very risky investment.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay by becarefulwhatyoupay Apr 11, 2016 8:40 PM Flag

    Klaus is playing this company for all he can milk out of it. He is there to collect his big salary.
    The so called "downstream engineered products" division , which he built by over paying for low profit margin aerospace companies, has little revenue or profit growth potential.
    Alcoa's core business lines, the upstream business lines,if and when aluminum prices strengthen has higher revenue and profit growth potential.
    For the above reasons the planned division of the company makes no sense. All this will do is add costs and reduce business synergies.
    The best thing that could happen for AA stock right now is the resignation or termination of Klaus Kleinfeld. Without that, and if the plans to split the company materialize, AA stock will quite possibly soon lose 50% or more of it's market price.

  • Reply to

    What do AA holders get

    by stks401 Feb 23, 2016 9:59 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Feb 24, 2016 12:21 AM Flag

    Two companies with higher combined expenses , and less business synergies, than the current single company.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay by becarefulwhatyoupay Feb 23, 2016 2:51 PM Flag

    Doubtful. Remember, As long as the company keeps its doors open, CHK management keeps taking their salaries.
    But the reality is that its over for CHK. The stock will likely trade in a range from .75 cents to $1 per shares for several months, then officially file for bankruptcy protection from creditors.
    Here above $2 per share it is a wonderful opportunity for existing share holders to sell now before the stock falls another 50% to 70%.
    Yes, other companies are interested to own some of CHK's land assets. But there is no incentive for those companies to buy now, as CHK's land assets will be available later through a court appointed liquidation auction.

  • Reply to

    People, Use Your Brain - Part 2

    by arbpro Feb 12, 2016 5:58 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Feb 13, 2016 5:42 PM Flag

    arb,
    What about the facts of low oil and NG prices don't you understand ?
    Whether CHK files for bankruptcy protection from creditors next week, next month, or next year, does it really matter ?
    The bottom line is that unless in the next couple of months ,NG doubles in price, and crude oil triples in price, CHK will no longer be able to avoid filing for bankruptcy protection from creditors. The odds of NG and oil prices rallying multi hundred percent, in just a few weeks time, are about one in a billion. Consequently, CHK will eventually be filing BK.
    My best guess is that CHK will shares will trade between about .75 vents to $1 per share for a few months, and then file BK. This is the way a public company usually does it, because company management wants to keep drawing their salaries as long as possible.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay by becarefulwhatyoupay Feb 12, 2016 7:27 PM Flag

    No offense to the thousands of workers employed by Alcoa, but I believe company CEO has turned the once great Alcoa into something of a joke company.
    Specifically, in recent years Klaus Kleinfeld authorized acquisitions at absurdly high prices. These are the business lines he likes to call "value added". It turns out these divisions have little revenue growth and shrinking margins.
    Meanwhile, Alcoa's legacy business suffers from commodity pricing pressures. Too much supply and too little demand is not a good working combination.
    Add to the above Alcoa's massive debt obligations and it is obvious why AA stock price suffered througout 2015 and 2016.
    The "joke" was KK's acquisition spree, followed by his plan to add more costs to the business (by splitting the company)..
    Depending on the overall stock market trend, I expect that over the next few months AA could trade in a range between $4 and $9 per share. Certaily there is more downside risk here than upside potential. Buyer beware.

  • Reply to

    Don't wake me untill AA hit's the teens..

    by gettysburgjuly123 Feb 12, 2016 11:28 AM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Feb 12, 2016 1:05 PM Flag

    Was there a reverse stock split announced ?

  • Reply to

    EPS

    by mjanson77 Jan 12, 2016 7:20 AM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Feb 2, 2016 9:13 PM Flag

    Stocks of refining companies often have volatile price movement. Refiners are out of favor right now because their profit margins are in a significant state of decline.

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy Risk

    by floorguy1000 Jan 20, 2016 10:50 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 20, 2016 11:49 PM Flag

    Most likely CHK will trade for a year or so at .75 cents to $1.25 per share. Management will be motivated to keep the company doors open, so that they may continue receiving a salary. After the time trading at about $1 per share, CHK will likely file for bankruptcy protection from creditors.
    The bottom line is that CHK was built to be a successful business at $80 or higher oil, and $4 or higher NG prices. Even if oil prices were to double from here, and trade at a $50 per barrel price, CHK would still be losing a lot of money each Quarter.
    All factors considered, $3 per share is a high price for CHK right now. I expect the shares to trade at $1.50 before too long, could be a matter of weeks.

  • Reply to

    Shares post split.

    by euclidian Jan 20, 2016 9:17 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 20, 2016 9:38 PM Flag

    I doubt there will be a split. After another Quarter or two of dismal operating results I expect AA's Board of Director's will fire KK and cancel the absurd plans to split the company.

  • Reply to

    If CHK has a 4 billion dollar revolver

    by igettmoney6624 Jan 19, 2016 9:03 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 19, 2016 9:22 PM Flag

    Nonsense. There are many reasons a bank may justify refusing a previously agreed upon line of credit.
    I assure you that no bank is lending CHK, or any other highly leveraged oil industry company, any more money.

  • Reply to

    simple math for all longs:

    by tomzli Jan 19, 2016 1:47 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 19, 2016 9:16 PM Flag

    For the next year I expect CHK will trade in the .75 to $1.25 per share range. This is common for companies prior to their filing for bankruptcy protection from creditors.

  • Reply to

    If CHK has a 4 billion dollar revolver

    by igettmoney6624 Jan 19, 2016 9:03 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 19, 2016 9:12 PM Flag

    Banks are no longer lending CHK any money.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 15, 2016 2:28 PM Flag

    Actually, the pending split is the reason stock holders are selling.
    If AA cancelled plans to divide the company, AA stock price would rise.

  • Reply to

    Just Bought IN

    by raymontomas Jan 12, 2016 11:13 AM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 12, 2016 2:19 PM Flag

    My guess is that the "bottom" for AA stock price will be somewhere in the $2 to $3 per share price range.
    At that price I expect a larger company will be willing to assume AA's debt load and acquire the entire company. For example, should AA trade $2.50 per share a large corporation or institutional investor might offer to pay AA share owners $3.50 to acquire the company. At that point the buyer might be able liquidate AA's assets, pay off its debt, and some out of the deal with a profit.
    Here at $7 per share the numbers don't make sense.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay by becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 12, 2016 2:00 PM Flag

    I doubt that during 2016 CHK will have to file for bankruptcy protection from creditors.
    More likely the company will post enormous operational financial losses, burn cash reserves, have a stock price trade for much of the year in the .75 cents to $1.25 per share price range.
    By 2017 the numbers may be such that creditors will force the company to file for bankruptcy protection from creditors.

  • Reply to

    AA to issue new shares ?

    by becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 12, 2016 12:21 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 12, 2016 12:57 PM Flag

    Nonsense.
    Precision Cast business lines completely different from AA down stream lines.
    "Heavy hitters" like Ross and Elliott management have several complete loss investments each year. They have enough winners to make up for the losses.
    There is no market for AA's upstream business, this is why it has little to no value (unless aluminum prices have a significant increase).
    AA's downstream business lines do not have the pricing power (profit margin) of PCP's. This is why Buffett liked PCP and not Alcoa.
    The "split" will do nothing but increase Alcoa's operating expenses. It is a horrible strategy which I doubt very much will ever materialize.

  • Reply to

    AA to issue new shares ?

    by becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 12, 2016 12:21 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jan 12, 2016 12:42 PM Flag

    Again, KK over paid for companies which have little to no chance of enjoying any significant pricing power. He did so to try and sell a "story", so he could keep his job , salary for a few more years.
    It's enough already.
    Today's 'engineered products" are tomorrow's commodity. There was no sensible reason for AA to pay so much for the "value added" business lines. And there is absolutely no reason to "split the company"..

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