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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

becarefulwhatyoupay 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2015 5:50 PM Member since: Jun 13, 2006
  • Reply to

    4 Billion market cap / 4 Billion liquidity

    by cwebjohn Aug 25, 2015 5:19 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 25, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    Maybe if CHk sold $5 to $6 billion of land assets the company could have $2 billion end of year cash on hand.
    But without asset sales CHK's losses from operations will exhaust company cash.
    It's kind of a race going on right now try try and sell enough assets ti fund operations and pay down debt. The problem is that if the company sold enough land to pay off the debt then there would be no assets left from which to derive revenues.
    Even though the assets-liabilies numbers may suggest a BK filing is imminent I tend to think CHK management will try to keep the company doors open at least a year, so that they may continue collecting their fat salaries.

  • Reply to

    4 Billion market cap / 4 Billion liquidity

    by cwebjohn Aug 25, 2015 5:19 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 25, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    $4 billion liquidity ?

    CHK"s current "liquidity", depending on the severity of its cash burn the past month, may be zero.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 25, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    Yes, all the court dates set for 2016, where CHK will be defending itself, is on the minds of professional investors. It is a significant.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 25, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    I am expecting $1 to $1.50 per share will be the support where enough buyers are willing to step in and take a chance that CHK will not have to file for bankruptcy protection.
    At that point , say $1.25 per share, I don't think daily market news and, or, oil price changes will be affecting the stock price.

  • Reply to

    Book value $9. cash over $3. per share

    by dav100us Aug 25, 2015 11:20 AM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 25, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    "Book value"?
    Considering the company's ongoing operational losses , massive debt, obligations and diminished value of land assets CHK's actual true "book value" could very well be zero.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 24, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    How long are you going to keep misleading people? Just because you have lost your money here please don't try and entice others to do the same.

  • Reply to

    I ThIink George Soros Is Right

    by southbuckeye Aug 18, 2015 11:39 AM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 18, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    Soros funds own hundreds and hundreds of stocks. His buying AA does not mean much, really.
    Now if Buffet or Icahn, men who typically do not own a large number of stocks, were to buy some AA shares, it would be a significant story.

  • Reply to

    Real question!

    by wyldfun Aug 12, 2015 7:04 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 14, 2015 12:08 AM Flag

    The most scary thing about CHK right now is the operational losses due to current oil prices. If the price of oil remains as it is today, or declines further, I expect the operational losses will , within 3 to 6 months time, use up all of CHK's current cash reserves. At that time a filing for bankruptcy protection may be the company's only option.
    In my opinion the only thing which can save CHK's business right now is if oil prices move higher. Without that
    the operational losses will leave the company with no cash to pay its bills.

  • Reply to

    Aerospace Market

    by yojoychenjo2 Aug 11, 2015 10:31 AM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 13, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    Actually, Alcoa's "aerospace revenues" are closer to 20% than 37%. Anyway, Alcoa's core traditional aluminum business is an integral part of the company's revenues and profits.

  • Reply to

    Price target??

    by longfossilfuels Aug 10, 2015 10:33 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 11, 2015 8:38 AM Flag

    If DOW rises 5% then I expect CHK shares will be trading around $9.50 per share.
    If Dow decline 5% then I expect CHK shares will be trading about $7 per share.
    Or, if oil price goes to $55 per barrel CHK shares may trade at $9.50 per share.
    If oil goes to $35 CHK shares will trade about $6 per share.

  • Reply to

    Increased Legal Contingency- $.50/share

    by dewey_duhawk Aug 5, 2015 10:47 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 5, 2015 11:00 PM Flag

    The 2016 calendar year is filled with legal cases where CHK must defend itself. Aubrey had set up a bunch of screwy lease and royalty deals and those cases have finally been assigned court dates.

  • Reply to

    Why would anyone sell at this price?

    by nmbvua Aug 5, 2015 11:47 AM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 5, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    What buyout ?
    Any company interested in CHK land holdings could buy the land from a bankruptcy court. This is preferable to buying the company out right and having to inherit CHK's massive debt liabilities.

  • Reply to

    Value

    by db_coop1129 Aug 5, 2015 1:50 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 5, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    "Book value" is whatever CHK management decides to list on the company books. Actual book value (the true prices potential buyers would pay for CHK assets) might be closer to $1 than it is $11.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay by becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 5, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    As oil prices decline the value of land which CHK owns is also declining. "Book value", or the value which CHK lists on its books for the company land assets, is artificially high. Today's write down of some assets is a step in the right direction, but not near enough to reveal a true value (the price potential buyers would actually pay for CHK's land holdings).
    If the true market value of CHK's land holdings were actually marked, I expect that CHK's liabilities (debt ) would be greater than the value of the company's assets.
    So why doesn't the company now file for bankruptcy protection from its creditors ? I believe there are two reasons. First, by filing, CHK management would lose their employment and monthly paychecks. Two, there is a possibility that oil prices will rise , which in turn would increase the value of CHK's land holding assets.
    My guess is that (through the balance of this calendar year) CHK will continue to write down assets and, or sell some land holdings for true market value. Operational loss amounts will increase. Eventually, maybe during the 2016 year, CHK will either file for bankruptcy , or if management can sell enough assets to pay down debt, CHK will stay in business as a much smaller operator.

  • Reply to

    Carl Icahn

    by mizzoubigshae Aug 3, 2015 7:15 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 3, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    Because you don't know what you are doing ?
    Icahn can easily afford to take the loss on his CHK investment. A CHK bankruptcy, a total loss for his investment, won't have a materially significant effect on his personal wealth. As a positive, he can use the CHK loss as a tax credit against other investment gains.
    Throughout his career Icahn has had plenty of winners, but also plenty of losers.

  • Reply to

    sensible price to purchase CHK ?

    by becarefulwhatyoupay Jul 21, 2015 3:49 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 3, 2015 7:42 PM Flag

    And the next press release will reveal the past cash reserves are nearly gone.
    Some of you don't seem to realize that operational losses can use up cash reserves, fast.

  • Reply to

    sensible price to purchase CHK ?

    by becarefulwhatyoupay Jul 21, 2015 3:49 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 3, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    saveinvestor, the chance of a CHK bankruptcy is 50%, at least. And as the price of oil continues to decline the chances for CHK (and other highly leverage companies) increases.
    You are hanging your hat on cash reserves as of a few months ago ? Those are likely exhausted by now.
    You believe CHK has a $4 b credit line? That is not likely as commodity prices have dropped, so too has lending to the oil and gas industry. It does not take much for a bank to cancel any and all credit lines.
    saveinvestor (and other amateur investors here) , try to understand that whatever past company assets and, or, numbers you were relying on are now either gone or have extremely diminished values.

  • becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Aug 3, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    CHK is as much an oil company as it is natural gas.

  • Reply to

    Insider Purchases

    by pa_dutch_market Jul 25, 2015 1:14 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jul 25, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    Open market insider transactions prove to be profitable less than 50% of the time. If there is a large number of open market insider buying (or selling) then the odds of success improves to more than 50%.

  • Reply to

    Could this be a TAKE-OVER candidate!

    by edblue1003 Jul 24, 2015 4:30 PM
    becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Jul 24, 2015 9:29 PM Flag

    Considering the recent RTI acquisition (by Alcoa), which I think was at a price of roughly 1.5X RTI's annual revenues,, I would guess an acquirer would value AA at $30 billion, or approximately $22 per share,
    I arrive at that figure by using 1.5X Alcoa's annual sales ($36 billion), subtracting AA's $7 billion or so net debt,
    and adding $1 billion for Alcoa's brand name value.
    All of the above just a wild guess, my numbers above are likely way off what metals industry and, or investment baking industry people would use.

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