% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Isis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

belco_mc 324 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 28, 2015 6:45 PM Member since: Aug 15, 2012
  • Reply to

    Howards insider sales are not comforting

    by smaycs4 Sep 23, 2015 10:31 AM
    belco_mc belco_mc Oct 28, 2015 6:45 PM Flag

    Their oil business has failed and they have no strategy for sports. Furthermore, they are a hard management team to trust because they do so much self dealing. With that said, I have bought some recently although I think I will end up regretting it.

    They have about $220 million of cash and investments and $70 million of debt. Hopefully, they can figure out what to do with the remaining cash other than buying sports companies that they run into bankruptcy.

    They are much smarter than their track record with SXCL in the last few years. Hopefully, they do something to demonstrate that. If not, this is going to trade through NAV and we'll see 14 soon.

  • Look at the performance of the WL controlled companies: SXCL, HNH, MLNK, SPLP. There are a couple other smaller holdings that have been sitting dormant for years.

    There's a lot of talk about superior operational performance and investment returns. But there is a common theme in his investments. They dramatically underperform. I tend to think he makes decisions that cause the underperformance so that he can increase ownership at lower levels.

    Examples: increased HNH at $30, increased SPLP at $12 a couple years ago, increased MLNK mid-$3's. I'm sure there are more.

    Watch what he does, rather than what he writes about.

    With that said, there is good value in most of these holdings and I hold some from time to time. I'm just not sure it's a good idea.

  • Reply to

    +20% today. Cant find any reason for it

    by smaycs4 Sep 8, 2015 3:29 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Sep 18, 2015 7:03 AM Flag

    Did you notice that Jack Howard sold $500k+ worth of shares on this move? Kind of surprising that he'd sell at these levels. Maybe he needed some cash and his only options were HNH, SPLP and SXCL. At any rate, I find it curious that he'd sell here.

  • Reply to

    Dutch Auction

    by jersey_warbler Sep 15, 2015 3:28 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Sep 16, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    Jersey, I don't disagree that the company's near ten earnings will be down as a result of the interest. Question: is it a permanent reduction of earnings power or has the long term earnings power of the company been impacted? I do see why people don't like it. I'm just giving my perspective.

  • Reply to

    Dutch Auction

    by jersey_warbler Sep 15, 2015 3:28 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Sep 16, 2015 7:48 AM Flag

    The dividend was a tax efficient way for large shareholders to pull money while still maintaining the same ownership in the company. Controlling shareholders believe there is long term value. People focusing on the lower EPS as a result of interest expense are missing the boat here. The way to value to company is on an EV/EBITDA basis. That method allows you to value a company irrespective of how it is capitalized. The stock is priced cheap on that basis. In 5 years, they will be able to pay off the debt and earnings power will be restored to previous levels, probably better.

    EPS are impacted by things such as interest expense and depreciation.

    I'm surprised the stock went above 36, but it confirms that the value of the company is well north of 36. If they want to do a tender, they'll have to raise the range. NATH is my largest position and I don't currently plan to sell any shares.

  • Reply to

    +20% today. Cant find any reason for it

    by smaycs4 Sep 8, 2015 3:29 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Sep 10, 2015 7:19 AM Flag

    It's nice to see it finally catch a bid. I sold my shares at 23. GLTA. I'm sure WL will find a way to get this company back on track eventually. in the meantime, I think his other main holding in SPLP, HNH, is a good risk/reward at 25. It's trading at only 6x EV/EBITDA while owning several solid businesses.

  • Reply to

    SXCL worth at Least $28 -

    by oddballchou Jun 26, 2015 2:05 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Jul 1, 2015 9:49 PM Flag

    Net asset value is probably no higher than $18 right now. I think Steel people are smart and will fix this one, but they have made one heck of a mess of this company. Failed energy strategy. Failed sports strategy. now you have a company with too much debt and will be burning cash soon. They need to scrap the sports business. I'd rather own SPLP- at least you own some good businesses below NAV.

  • Reply to

    Selling SPLP to Buy SXCL

    by oddballchou Jun 30, 2015 3:24 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Jul 1, 2015 9:44 PM Flag

    With SXCL all you own is a few poorly positioned oil service companies, a few small sports related companies as part of a failed sports strategy, some cash, some NOL's and some investments in private entities which seem to be energy related. Oh, and they have a short position in something that didn't seem to go up in value when oil dropped, so it may not be a hedge. oh yea, you also have debt that was used to fund the energy companies.

    You may be right- but you also could be heading to $15 factoring in the debt and anticipated losses coming form the energy companies.

  • "Today's announcement reinforces our mandate to grow stockholder value," said Robert Ladd, Chief Executive Officer of MGT.

    This is a Hall of Fame CEO quote.

  • BH sold shares in a rights offering at $250. They put those proceeds into TLF. TLF tendered for BH stock at $420.

    Good capital allocation?

  • belco_mc by belco_mc Jun 10, 2015 7:03 AM Flag

    The stock is trading right around cash/investments now. The valuation is giving zero value to the energy services related businesses.

    I believe there is very little downside at this level.

    SXCL is a big holding for SPLP. They are made some mistakes on this one but I think they will figure out how to create value with the $200 million of cash plus NOL's here.

    Anyone still following?

  • Reply to

    Who exactly does he work for ?

    by smaycs4 Jun 4, 2015 7:08 AM
    belco_mc belco_mc Jun 4, 2015 7:14 AM Flag

    He is certainly crafty. I would guess the stock goes above $400 today. In his compensation agreement, does he get paid on the gains of BH stock within TLF?

  • Reply to

    AIRT Investment

    by tesiman May 13, 2015 11:02 AM
    belco_mc belco_mc May 13, 2015 10:18 PM Flag

    SB is exploiting his position of power. In my opinion, if Gabelli doesn't challenge him then my view of Mario is going down fast. SB's behavior is egregious. I think Swenson will win next year if SB continues on his path.

  • Reply to

    Biglari supporters

    by belco_mc May 12, 2015 11:14 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc May 12, 2015 11:21 PM Flag

    and CBRL is up 140% over those same 3 years.
    and the winner is... (not the BH shareholder)

  • Reply to

    Biglari supporters

    by belco_mc May 12, 2015 11:14 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc May 12, 2015 11:20 PM Flag

    In the last 3 years, the S&P is up over 60%. BH is down 5%.
    Question: How much compensation has Sadar been paid over those 3 years?

  • belco_mc by belco_mc May 12, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    How are you guys feeling now? Feeling Burned yet by SB? Still think he's thinking about shareholders?
    He used a lot of money to fend off the proxy fight. The most wasted of which is the BH stock buybacks that seemed to push the stock up. A close second is aggressively buying about $5 - $10 million of stocks owned by Groveland. I doubt Sadar would have done that with his own money. But he had no problem doing it with shareholder money. Was that a decision made by someone who is a master of capital allocation?

  • The stock was trading around $360 last year when a buyer began buying in size and didn't appear to be concerned about price. It seemed like that buyer was trying to push the price up.

    That was leading up to the vote and annual meeting.

    That large buyer has disappeared once the stock price was pushed up and the Presentations for the annual meeting were completed.

    Now the stock is moving back to levels prior to the annual meeting.

    Guess who was doing that aggressive buying? Bonus questions: guess who's money was being used to fund the purchases? Guess how that money used was raised and at what price?

    Final question: guess that buyer's a Agenda for doing that aggressive buying

  • belco_mc belco_mc Apr 10, 2015 7:35 AM Flag

    They've made some major strategic mistakes and I think it's back to the drawing board for them. The sports idea made sense- large market and very fragmented. They thought they could consolidate. The problem is that it is fragmented because it's hard to create a sustainable competitive advantage. I doubt they can create a scalable platform there. Energy efforts were fine and doing very well until oil crashed. The oil companies have a conservative level of debt and should make it through the downturn. I wonder if they will buy more energy companies on the cheap or take the company in a different direction. The company has $200 million in cash and Warren L and company are very bright people with a good track record. SXCL makes up about half of SPLP value. My bet is that they figure out how to re-position the company and buying here will work well for good longer term returns.

  • Reply to

    Egan-Jones is for Groveland !

    by smaycs4 Apr 6, 2015 11:42 AM
    belco_mc belco_mc Apr 9, 2015 7:25 AM Flag

    I think he's buying shares to keep the stock price up in advance of the annual meeting. Think about how aggressively he bought shares when it was in the upper 300's. I believe then he was getting the stock price up as he prepared his slides in response to Groveland. Another poor capital allocation decision on his part- he had BH (the company) sell shares at 250, put the money into the fund and then had the fund pay 400 using the proceeds from the 250 offering. I also would like people to look into how he used company funds to buy up shares of Swenson's controlled companies. SB wasted several million dollars of shareholder money in order to try and intimidate Swenson.

61.73-0.33(-0.53%)Nov 24 4:00 PMEST