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Jones Soda Co. (JSDA) Message Board

belco_mc 335 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 7, 2016 7:30 AM Member since: Aug 15, 2012
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  • belco_mc belco_mc Apr 7, 2016 7:30 AM Flag

    Welcome. Check out other companies controlled by warren Lichtenstein. Not many people who own shares in an entity controlled by him have made money. SXCL HNH SPLP MLNK. Your investment thesis on this one is an old one. Good luck. Maybe your timing will prove correct.

  • Reply to

    Trading for less than Cash- Forced Selling today

    by oddballchou Mar 14, 2016 10:07 AM
    belco_mc belco_mc Mar 14, 2016 6:42 PM Flag

    I think your analysis continues to be a little off on this one.

  • Reply to

    Going dark ?

    by smaycs4 Mar 10, 2016 11:07 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Mar 14, 2016 6:41 PM Flag

    before going dark I thought this was going to 11, Now I think 7 or 8. oil service companies will burn cash and probably file BK. WL will prob figure out how to sweep most of the cash to SPLP.

  • belco_mc belco_mc Jan 31, 2016 7:07 AM Flag

    I don't think it will double in value with its current collection of companies unless the price of oil doubles.

    Splp owns around 50% of sxcl. They are essentially a controlling shareholder. You can't make them do anything they don't want to do.

    Any activist campaign will most likely be a waste of time and money- Especially one coming from a bank that owns 2 percent of the company.

  • belco_mc belco_mc Jan 22, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    with all that said, I have decided to buy some shares around here. The rationale is that the company is trading right around net cash levels. I think it could trade lower, however, I think the upside is if WL uses this entity to consolidate some of the other companies into this entity. It has a high amount of NOL's and if he is every able to build a profitable business over time, this could be of value.

  • belco_mc belco_mc Jan 21, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    Well, here we are at $12. I thought we could hit 12 with the assumption that the oil services companies file BK. That's looking increasingly likely which leaves SXCL with a near 100% success rate on running every company acquired in the last few years into BK. WL and SPLP is still charging SXCL $8 million a year (if my memory is correct) to provide management services. The stock probably trades to $10. The only upside is if WL uses SXCL as a vehicle to consolidate some other holdings like HNH.

  • how do you value the company? I think around $11. That's where I think it trades.
    that's also why I think Howard sold a half million around $22 15 days before the third quarter ended.
    I guess he's a lucky seller. Probably not because he knew things were going to be this bad 83% through the 3rd quarter. nah. I guess he thinks the risk of selling then was worth it.

  • Reply to

    Miss me? Time for the victory lap!!

    by sj_email Dec 11, 2015 1:25 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Dec 14, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    I have to agree with you, sj

  • belco_mc belco_mc Dec 7, 2015 7:29 AM Flag

    Not sure what can be done- they control the companies and they make public disclosures. All disclosures seem fine. The only thing I have questioned is the timing of Howards recent sales of SXCL. They have a similar track record at other companies they control. A few years ago management was owed a performance fee. They converted that amount into stock at $12 a share for SPLP, after watching it drop from 17. after that fee converted into shares at 12, they announced a stock buyback which helped drive the stock back up. Then whey they reported their annual performance in the SPLP annual report, they excluded the loss of the stock dropping from 17 to 12 due to an illiquid market. However, they took credit for the SPLP gains from 12 back to 17. Check out all the asterisks in that report. For somer eason, they have SXCL using its cash to buy SPLP stock in the open market. Doesn't make sense to me. HNH: after the stock dropped from 47 to 30, they had HNH buy a company that SPLP owned a percentage of. They converted their stock into HNH at half the value it was trading a few months before.

  • belco_mc belco_mc Dec 5, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    It's more like a $12 stock. Many of the companies they bought have been shut down. The oil service companies EBTIDA is heading towards zero. They spent about $200 million buying them. Most of the public company investments have been poor as well. SP Corporate services is charging SXCL about $9 million a year for all this. And on top of it, Howard sold a bunch of stock around $22 about 15 days before the end of the 3rd quarter ended. 3rd quarter earnings were very bad. I can't imagine that he wasn't aware of that information when he sold. I've learned that I don't want to be a minority shareholder along side WL and Co.

  • It's been a while since I looked into the patent positioning, but my recollection is that Biomarin has superior patent positioning with respect to exon 51, and maybe even more broadly.

    Can Sarepta sell the drug outside the US without a legal fight with BMRN?

    I always thought the reason why BMRN bought Prosena was for the patent portfolio. Even if they didn't get drisipearson approved, they could potentially get royalties from SRPT.

    Anyone have thoughts on this?

  • Reply to

    Howards insider sales are not comforting

    by smaycs4 Sep 23, 2015 10:31 AM
    belco_mc belco_mc Oct 28, 2015 6:45 PM Flag

    Their oil business has failed and they have no strategy for sports. Furthermore, they are a hard management team to trust because they do so much self dealing. With that said, I have bought some recently although I think I will end up regretting it.

    They have about $220 million of cash and investments and $70 million of debt. Hopefully, they can figure out what to do with the remaining cash other than buying sports companies that they run into bankruptcy.

    They are much smarter than their track record with SXCL in the last few years. Hopefully, they do something to demonstrate that. If not, this is going to trade through NAV and we'll see 14 soon.

  • Look at the performance of the WL controlled companies: SXCL, HNH, MLNK, SPLP. There are a couple other smaller holdings that have been sitting dormant for years.

    There's a lot of talk about superior operational performance and investment returns. But there is a common theme in his investments. They dramatically underperform. I tend to think he makes decisions that cause the underperformance so that he can increase ownership at lower levels.

    Examples: increased HNH at $30, increased SPLP at $12 a couple years ago, increased MLNK mid-$3's. I'm sure there are more.

    Watch what he does, rather than what he writes about.

    With that said, there is good value in most of these holdings and I hold some from time to time. I'm just not sure it's a good idea.

  • Reply to

    +20% today. Cant find any reason for it

    by smaycs4 Sep 8, 2015 3:29 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Sep 18, 2015 7:03 AM Flag

    Did you notice that Jack Howard sold $500k+ worth of shares on this move? Kind of surprising that he'd sell at these levels. Maybe he needed some cash and his only options were HNH, SPLP and SXCL. At any rate, I find it curious that he'd sell here.

  • Reply to

    Dutch Auction

    by jersey_warbler Sep 15, 2015 3:28 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Sep 16, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    Jersey, I don't disagree that the company's near ten earnings will be down as a result of the interest. Question: is it a permanent reduction of earnings power or has the long term earnings power of the company been impacted? I do see why people don't like it. I'm just giving my perspective.

  • Reply to

    Dutch Auction

    by jersey_warbler Sep 15, 2015 3:28 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Sep 16, 2015 7:48 AM Flag

    The dividend was a tax efficient way for large shareholders to pull money while still maintaining the same ownership in the company. Controlling shareholders believe there is long term value. People focusing on the lower EPS as a result of interest expense are missing the boat here. The way to value to company is on an EV/EBITDA basis. That method allows you to value a company irrespective of how it is capitalized. The stock is priced cheap on that basis. In 5 years, they will be able to pay off the debt and earnings power will be restored to previous levels, probably better.

    EPS are impacted by things such as interest expense and depreciation.

    I'm surprised the stock went above 36, but it confirms that the value of the company is well north of 36. If they want to do a tender, they'll have to raise the range. NATH is my largest position and I don't currently plan to sell any shares.

  • Reply to

    +20% today. Cant find any reason for it

    by smaycs4 Sep 8, 2015 3:29 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Sep 10, 2015 7:19 AM Flag

    It's nice to see it finally catch a bid. I sold my shares at 23. GLTA. I'm sure WL will find a way to get this company back on track eventually. in the meantime, I think his other main holding in SPLP, HNH, is a good risk/reward at 25. It's trading at only 6x EV/EBITDA while owning several solid businesses.

  • Reply to

    SXCL worth at Least $28 -

    by oddballchou Jun 26, 2015 2:05 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Jul 1, 2015 9:49 PM Flag

    Net asset value is probably no higher than $18 right now. I think Steel people are smart and will fix this one, but they have made one heck of a mess of this company. Failed energy strategy. Failed sports strategy. now you have a company with too much debt and will be burning cash soon. They need to scrap the sports business. I'd rather own SPLP- at least you own some good businesses below NAV.

  • Reply to

    Selling SPLP to Buy SXCL

    by oddballchou Jun 30, 2015 3:24 PM
    belco_mc belco_mc Jul 1, 2015 9:44 PM Flag

    With SXCL all you own is a few poorly positioned oil service companies, a few small sports related companies as part of a failed sports strategy, some cash, some NOL's and some investments in private entities which seem to be energy related. Oh, and they have a short position in something that didn't seem to go up in value when oil dropped, so it may not be a hedge. oh yea, you also have debt that was used to fund the energy companies.

    You may be right- but you also could be heading to $15 factoring in the debt and anticipated losses coming form the energy companies.

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